The role of measurability in game-theoretic probability

This paper argues that the requirement of measurability (imposed on trading strategies) is indispensable in continuous-time game-theoretic probability. The necessity of the requirement of measurability in measure theory is demonstrated by results such as the Banach–Tarski paradox and is inherited by measure-theoretic probability. The situation in game-theoretic probability turns out to be somewhat similar in that dropping the requirement of measurability allows a trader in a financial security with a non-trivial price path to become infinitely rich while risking only one monetary unit.     

1917–2017: The Geopolitical Legacy of the Russian Revolution

The essays collected in this forum discuss the geopolitical legacy of the Russian Revolution of 1917, one of the most momentous political events of the twentieth century. From a range of different academic disciplines and perspectives, the authors consider how the profound transformations in society and politics were refracted through space and geography, and how enduring these refractions proved to be. The authors focus on three themes that have been dominant in Russian affairs over the past century: 1)the problem of center-periphery relations, 2)the civilizational dynamics of Russia’s self-identification in relation to Europe and to Asia, and 3)the geopolitics of national identity.     

Informality and mobility

Informality is a defining characteristic of labour markets in developing and transition countries. This paper analyzes patterns of mobility across different forms of formal and informal employment in Russia. Using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey household panel we estimate a dynamic multinomial logit model with individual heterogeneity and correct for the initial conditions problem. Simulations show that structural state dependence is weak and that transition rates from informal to formal employment are not lower than from non-employment. These results lend support to the integrated view of the labour market.     

Life Expectancy in 2040: What Do Clinical Experts Expect?

We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes of death in the United States. Mortality rates and life tables for 2040 were derived by sex and age. Life expectancy at age 20 and 65 was compared to figures published by the Social Security Administration and to estimates from the Lee-Carter method. There was agreement among all three approaches that life expectancy at age 20 will increase by approximately one year per decade for females and males between now and 2040. According to the clinical experts, 70% of the improvement in life expectancy will occur in cardiovascular disease and cancer, while in the last 30 years most of the improvement has occurred in cardiovascular disease. Expert opinion suggests that most of the increase in life expectancy will be attributable to the already achieved reduction in smoking rates, especially for women.     

Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?

This article empirically analyzes the domestic and external inflation determinants for eight non-eurozone new EU member states (NMS), using a structural vector autoregression model. Results indicate that foreign shocks are a major factor in explaining inflation dynamics in the medium run, while the short-run inflation dynamics are mainly influenced by domestic shocks. Moreover, the importance of the foreign inflation component has had a rising trend in the precrisis period in all NMS and mostly coincided with their accession to the EU. This trend ended with the onset of the global financial crisis. The study implicates the need to augment the classical Taylor rule with foreign factors in the case of small open economies.     

The Federal Reserve and the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Treating a Virus with Antibiotics? Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market

The two main explanations for the crisis in the commercial paper (CP) market are credit concerns and liquidity issues. The CP market is not homogeneous in terms of credit quality, maturities and types of issues. We find that lower credit‐quality CP suffered more during the crisis. Additionally, we find little evidence that Federal Reserve (Fed) liquidity facilities reduced the impact of the crisis, but that when the Fed became a lender in the CP market, the crisis pressures were dramatically reduced. We conclude that the crisis in the money markets is related more to increases in credit risk. Liquidity is a secondary issue.     

A review of bank performance during transition in central Europe

This study, based on panel data from 189 industrial enterprises in 1992‐96, shows that privatisation 'on average' produces little improvement in performance of Russian enterprises. However, disaggregating the process, we reveal that methods of privatisation do influence performance but the impact is not always positive. The state seems to be a passive shareholder. At the same time, our results suggest that majority state ownership is preferable to a state minority stockholding, possibly because the absence of a monitoring shareholder in the latter case does not permit managers to achieve their own objectives at the expense of other shareholders.     

Continuity Estimates for Ruin Probabilities

A method of continuity analysis of ruin probabilities with respect to variation of parameters governing risk processes is proposed. It is based on the representation of the ruin probability as the stationary probability of a reversed process. We apply Kartashov's technique designed for continuity analysis of stationary distributions of general Markov chains in order to obtain desired continuity estimates. The method is illustrated by the Sparre Andersen and Markov modulated risk models.     

An analysis of the demand for housing attributes

This paper uses a two-step approach to estimate a system of structural demand equations for housing attributes. Estimation of a hedonic price regression, in the first step, yields implicit prices for housing attributes for the Toronto Metropolitan area in 1978, which are then used to estimate the expenditure share equations derived from the indirect translog utility function. Empirical results indicate that the composite housing attributes (used in the second stage model) are own-price elastic, while an examination of cross price relationships reveals that these attributes are reasonably substitutable.     

Investment and Innovation State Support of Agriculture in Russia as a Condition of WTO

Russian agriculture is one of the industries operating in the unstable economic situation in a developing market taking into account risks of the world economy, economic, political, and climatic factors. The role of agriculture is to provide people＇s needs for food, significant effects on employment, the efficiency of domestic production, and way of life in rural areas by obligatory preserving food security in Russia. One of the major tasks for agriculture is the development of innovations and investments aimed at improving the competitiveness of the domestic agricultural sector. Russia＇s membership in the WTO since 2012 is getting a particular importance in the innovation and investment support of agriculture. The strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation until 2020 ＂Innovative Russia--2020＂ assumes three possible options for innovative development： inertial （directed on imports）, catch-up development and a local technological competitiveness and a variant of achieving leadership in leading scientific and technical sectors, and fundamental research. A positive point is that the strategy provides an algorithm of state support of the innovation cycle. The innovation cycle is the process associated with the sequence of innovation transformations （scientific or business ideas） in products, technology, business process and launches it on the market for commercial use. A positively developing regional aspect is of great importance.