领导者如何跨越“决策陷阱”

人们天生喜欢维持现状，他们试图寻找变化最小的决策。例如，当一个全新的产品推出时，它被制造成像一个早就存在的常见产品。第一辆汽车像没有马的马车，第一份电子报纸和杂志使用它们印刷版本的格式。在商业领域中，惩罚往往是针对因为做事而导致的过失，     

Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."     

A new frontier for health care risk management

Today's sophisticated medical environment, combined with society's penchant for litigation, has created a broad array of perils for risk managers in the health care industry. Risk managers must deal with dilemmas posed by regulatory and technological changes that have vastly altered the medical field.