FORWARD RISK PREMIA AND THE MATURITY OF CONTRACTS: A NOTE

This paper examines the behavior of the risk premium component of currency forward rates. Analyzing forward rates of one, two and three-month maturity, we find that the power of forward rate as a predictor of future spot rate decreases with the length of contract maturity. Further, we find that the proportion of the variance of the forward premium which is due to the variation of the risk premium is larger than the proportion due to the expected spot rate change for all currencies except for the Canadian dollar. This proportion also increases with the length of maturity.     

Continuous Stochastic Games of Capital Accumulation with Convex Transitions

We consider a discounted stochastic game of common-property capital accumulation with nonsymmetric players, bounded one-period extraction capacities, and a transition law satisfying a general strong convexity condition. We show that the infinite-horizon problem has a Markov-stationary (subgame-perfect) equilibrium and that every finite-horizon truncation has auniqueMarkovian equilibrium, both in consumption functions which arecontinuous and nondecreasingand have all slopes bounded above by 1. Unlike previous results in strategic dynamic models, these properties are reminiscent of the corresponding optimal growth model.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Codes: C73, O41, Q20.     

On strategic complementarity conditions in Bertrand oligopoly

Summary. For Bertrand duopoly with linear costs, we establish via a single (counter-)example that: (i) A new monotone transformation of the firms' profit functions may lead to the supermodularity of transformed profits when the standard log and identity transformations both fail to do so, and (ii) Topkis's notion of critical sufficient condition for monotonicity of a Bertrand firm's best-reply correspondence cannot be extended to rely only on positive unit costs. Received: January 16, 2001; revised version: March 20, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This work was completed while the first author was visiting the Institute for Industrial Economics at the University of Copenhagen during Spring 2000. Their financial support and stimulating research environment are gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the European Commission. Correspondence to: R. Amir     

Human capital and earnings distribution dynamics

Earnings heterogeneity plays a crucial role in modern macroeconomics. We document that mean earnings and measures of earnings dispersion and skewness all increase in US data over most of the working life-cycle for a typical cohort as the cohort ages. We show that (i) a human capital model can replicate these properties from the right distribution of initial human capital and learning ability, (ii) differences in learning ability are essential to produce an increase in earnings dispersion over the life cycle and (iii) differences in learning ability account for the bulk of the variation in the present value of earnings across agents. These findings emphasize the need to further understand the role and origins of initial conditions.     

Destination image,on-site experience and behavioural intentions: path analytic validation of a marketing model on domestic tourists

Despite its contribution to the national economy, domestic tourism is one of the most neglected and under-researched forms of tourism in the literature. This study tested an integrated path model examining the interrelationships between destination image, perceived quality, satisfaction and behavioural intentions, using domestic tourists who visited Eilat, Israel. The findings support the hierarchical relationships between image, quality, satisfaction and behavioural intentions. In addition, the affective image component was found to exert a far greater impact on the overall destination image than the cognitive component. The study establishes a better understanding of domestic tourists’ destination image and behavioural intention formulation. It also provides a number of implications for destination managers targeting the voluminous domestic segment.     

Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component's autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component's persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation of post‐earnings‐announcement drift, post‐revenue‐announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post‐earnings‐announcement drift and the post‐revenue‐announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under‐reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over‐reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.     

Free Trade versus Autarky under Asymmetric Cournot Oligopoly

The paper compares free trade with autarky in an asymmetric multi‐country world under Cournot competition with constant returns to scale and linear demand. We derive respective conditions under which free trade will hurt a country's consumers, benefit its firms, induce it to export, increase its output and raise its welfare. We show that these conditions are linked in a clear order, with one implying the next. We further demonstrate that free trade can reduce world total output and total consumer surplus as well as world welfare. Along the way, we correct several oversights in the literature.     

Are sponsorship announcements good news for the shareholders? Evidence from international stock exchanges

The objective of this study is to analyse investors’ perceptions of sponsorship’s ability to increase brand equity, through the impact of sponsorship announcement on stock market value. An event study method, based on a unique sample of 293 worldwide sponsorship announcements from 2010, shows substantial negative abnormal returns following announcement dates. In addition, a cross-sectional regression analysis reveals the influence of several featured factors. Philanthropic sponsorships and sponsorships of events with distinctive values are less negatively perceived by investors, but US companies exhibit more negative returns in shareholder value than other firms. This study offers no support for varying impacts of event audience, renewal agreement, property sponsorship and title sponsorship on abnormal returns though.     

Willingness to pay for brands: a cross‐region,cross‐category analysis

Using survey data collected in multiple locations (California and Texas in the United States and Revohot in Israel), we quantify category‐ and location‐specific variations of consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for brand products after controlling for consumer characteristics. We find that consumers have a similar qualitative assessment of brand value in different product categories across different locations. That is, consumers have a stronger preference and higher WTP for brands in consumer electronics, followed by clothing and then processed food, and the lowest in fresh produce. Furthermore, we simulate price premiums and market shares of brands relative to generic products in different categories. Simulation results suggest that brands in fresh produce have the highest price premium but lowest market share. Despite the similarities, the magnitude of WTP for brands as well as the simulated price premium and the corresponding market share in the same product category are location variant. The similarities and dissimilarities suggest validity of having global brand strategies adapted to local conditions, that is, the so‐called “thinking globally and acting locally” strategy.     

Comparing Alternative Hedge Accounting Standards: Shareholders' Perspective

We study the economic consequences of alternative hedge accounting rules in terms of managerial hedging decisions and wealth effects for shareholders. The rules we consider include the fair-value and cash-flow hedge accounting methods prescribed by the recent SFAS No. 133. We illustrate that the accounting method used influences the manager's hedge decision. We show that under no-hedge accounting, the hedge choice is different from the optimal economic hedge the firm would make under symmetric and public information. However, under a certain definition of fair-value hedge accounting, the hedging decision preserves the optimal economic hedge. We then demonstrate that long-term and future shareholders prefer a certain definition of fair-value hedge accounting to no-hedge accounting, while short-term shareholders prefer either approach depending on risk preferences and the level of uncertainty. We speculate about circumstances in which a manager would choose not to adopt fair-value hedge accounting when he has the option not to do so.