The Effect of Media Coverage on the Pricing of Seasoned Equity Offerings

This paper examines the role of media coverage and investor attention on the outcomes of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). I use an archive of Thomson Reuters news articles to proxy for firm visibility and investor attention. I find that the volumes of news articles prior to the offerings are positively associated with the offer price discounts of SEOs. Furthermore, the volumes of news articles are negatively associated with the cumulative abnormal returns three days around the SEOs. I conclude that the costs of equity increase with media coverage prior to SEOs. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that media coverage affects investors' information processing in SEOs. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dating Business-Cycle turning points

This paper presents a logit model for dating business-cycle turning points. The regressors are monthly series from the Business Cycle Indicators database of the Conference Board. Dividing the sample period into a subset for model initialization (1959∶9–1970∶12) and a subset for testing (1971∶1–2003∶12) yields a chronology that is nearly identical to that established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the recognition lag is less than four months, in contrast to an average of more than eleven months for the official chronology. (JEL E320) The author is grateful for comments by an anonymous referee.     

Researching Preferences,Valuation and Hypothetical Bias

A number of recent papers in environmental economics have focused on the process of researching preferences – agents are uncertain about preferences but with effort may narrow their uncertainty. This issue has arisen in formulating bids in contingent valuation (CV) as well as the debate over the divergence between WTP and WTA. In the context of CV, it has been suggested that the hypothetical nature of the preference elicitation process biases responses. This paper provides both a theoretical model and experimental evidence to contribute to this debate. The model is a model of competitive bidding for a private good with two components that are particularly relevant to the debate. The first component is that bidders are unsure of their own value for the private good but may purchase information about their own value (researching preferences). The second component is that there is a probability that the auction is hypothetical – that the winning bidder will not get the private good and will not pay the winning bid. The experiment tests this theoretical model of bidding equilibrium and analyzes the effects of variations in the parameters (hypotheticalness, information costs and number of agents) on the endogenous variables (such as the proportion of bidders who become informed and the winning bid). Experimental results suggest that an increase in the hypotheticalness of an auction tends to decrease the likelihood that bidders pay for information on their valuation with an ambiguous effect on the winning bid.      

The interaction effect of gender and ethnicity in loan approval: A Bayesian estimation with data from a laboratory field experiment

Microfinance targets women and uses loan provision as a tool for empowerment, which translates into better household nutrition, improved education, and a scale down of domestic violence. However, ethnic discrimination in microfinance may exist in countries with a segregated indigenous population. We assessed this possibility with a field experiment in Bolivia. The controlled laboratory experiment evaluated whether credit officers rejected microloan applications based on the interaction effect of ethnicity and gender of potential borrowers. Point estimates of a Bayesian mixed‐effects logistic regression, estimated with the experimental data, indicate that nonindigenous women have double the chance of loan approval, but indigenous women have only 1.5 times the chance of loan approval when compared with men. While the findings about gender are limited, the evidence for the interaction of gender and ethnicity is more robust and suggests the existence of positive taste‐based discrimination favorable for nonethnic women in Bolivia. We conclude that the affirmative actions towards women promoted by development agencies and microfinance institutions must not overlook ethnicity as an important factor for financial policies of sustainable development. In practice, these policies should be aimed at identifying and reducing both social desirability bias and the structural barriers to financial inclusion that indigenous women may face when trying to obtain access to a loan.     

Deferred taxation under default risk

In this article, we have used a continuous EBIT-based model to study deferred tax liabilities under default risk. Quite surprisingly, default risk has been disregarded in research on deferred taxation. In order to underline its importance, we first calculated the probability of default, over a given time period, together with the contingent value of tax deferral. We then applied our theoretical model to a sample of 27,749 OECD companies. We showed that, when accounting for both firms with a negative EBIT and firms with a probability of default higher than 50% (over a 10-year period), a relevant percentage of firms were close enough to default. Hence, the expected present value of deferred taxes is much lower than that obtained in a deterministic context. From the Government’s point of view, deferred tax liabilities are a risk-free loan. Since only a portion are subsequently repaid, the Government should account for future losses due to companies’ default. So far, these estimates have been missing, although techniques do exist and are quite practical.     

Back to the future. Is industry 4.0 a new tecno-organizational paradigm? Implications for Latin American countries

ABSTRACT

The objective of this article is to establish a dialogue between the recent ‘Industry 4.0’ (I4.0) literature and evolutionary neo-Schumpeterean studies about techno-organizational paradigms. In that direction, we wonder whether I4.0 constitutes a new paradigm, as it is assumed by the first group of literature, or it represents – until the moment – an intensification of key features of the information and communication technology (ICT) paradigm, following the second group of studies. Some questions are raised about the implications of I4.0 for developing countries (DEC), afterwards. Specifically, we reflect on the possibilities of these countries to identify and take advantage of new windows of opportunity, opened by the development and diffusion of these technologies. In this regard, the review of recent Latin American experience raises strong concerns regarding I4.0 as a new source of intra- and international heterogeneity, linked to the severe difficulties these countries have in appropriating these technologies in the form of productivity gains and quasi-rents. It seems that this is partially derived from weak technological, organizational, and connectivity capabilities paths of accumulation between institutions and actors.     

Measuring Efficiency in Higher Education: An Empirical Study Using a Bootstrapped Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess technical efficiency in a big public university. Particular attention has been paid to two main activities, teaching and research, and on two large groups, the Science and Technology (ST) sector and the Humanity and Social Science (HSS) sector. The findings, based to data from 2005 to 2009, suggest that the ST sector is more efficient in terms of quality of research than the HSS sector, that instead achieves higher efficiency in teaching activities. The efficiency estimates strongly depend on the output specification, given that the use of several quality proxies, such as three research and two student questionnaire-based teaching alternative indices, reduce performance and its differentials for both research and teaching activities. A bootstrap technique is also used to provide confidence intervals for efficiency scores and to obtain bias-corrected estimates. The Malmquist index is calculated to measure changes in productivity.     

Business cycles and wage rigidity

In this paper, we analyze the impact of downward wage rigidity on the labor market dynamics. We shows that imposing downward wage rigidity in a matching model with cyclical fluctuations in productivity, endogenous match-destruction, and on-the-job search, quits are procyclical and layoffs countercyclical. Using the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), we provide evidence that downward wage rigidity is empirically relevant in ten European countries. Finally, we show that layoffs are countercyclical and quits are procyclical, as predicted by the model.     

Unspoken demands for farm technology

For three years in Bolivia (2002–2005) the INNOVA Project finished researching several technologies for sustainable agriculture, started by earlier DFID-funded projects. Before INNOVA started critics suggested that these technologies should be discarded in favour of a demand survey. Instead, INNOVA kept the existing technologies, but judged the demand for them with several methods (CIAL, sondeo technology fair, and others). INNOVA found that there was demand for some of the technologies, but that a survey would have missed much of the demand, which is implicit. That is, people are not initially aware of all their problems or of all the possible solutions. Over the years, farmers made more specific, sophisticated demands on the technologies, which evolved as a result. Demand and supply of farm technology are like two sides of an unfolding conversation.     

Users’ perceptions of two types of hotel reservation Web sites

Building on the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study examined users’ perceptions of reservation Web sites: hotel-owned and third-party. As an experimental study, this study tested whether a modified variant of the TAM could be used to evaluate users’ perceptions of two different channels for hotel online reservations. Perceived usefulness was a key predictor of users’ attitudes toward using hotel-owned Web sites, while perceived ease of use was a key predictor of users’ attitudes toward using third-party Web sites. Both perceived playfulness and attitudes were two key predictors of users’ intentions to use hotel reservation Web sites. However, no significant differences in users’ perceptions were found between the two types of Web sites. Overall, users had more favorable attitudes and higher intentions to revisit third-party Web sites than hotel-owned Web sites.