Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Six MENA Countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for six Middle Eastern and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia), within a quadvariate vector autoregressive framework. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply the augmented vector autoregression vector (VAR) methodology of Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger causality. Our empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that finance leads to growth in five out of the six countries. Only in Israel could weak support be found for causality running from economic growth to financial development but no causality in the other direction. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that have been launched since the mid 1980s and to improve the efficiency of these countries’ financial systems to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long‐term economic growth.     

Aid, Agriculture and Poverty in Developing Countries

The authors make two contributions to the debate on aid‐effectiveness, illustrating that for impact on poverty what matters is not just the level but also the composition and stability of aid. One specific implication of this for aid policy is that aid most effectively reduces poverty if it supports public (and other) expenditures which are supportive of agricultural development. Regression analysis confirms that these are not only direct expenditure on agriculture, but also on education and infrastructure, and military expenditure has a negative impact. Three factors appear to be particularly conducive to the development of stable pro‐poor expenditure patterns (and in particular pro‐agriculture expenditure patterns). These are expenditure strategies which protect the poor against risk, the development of stable relations between governments and aid donors, and long‐term political commitment to pro‐poor strategies by government. The argument is pursued partly by panel‐data econometric analysis of developing countries as a whole, and partly by case studies of sustained and non‐sustained green revolutions in heavily aid‐dependent countries in Africa.     

Institutional changes and breakpoints in Israeli trade

This paper examines the structural changes in Israeli trade trends since the 1970s. Structural change tests do not reject the null of no breaks in Israeli trade trends after Israel signed FTA agreements with the EEC and the USA, or after Israel's 1991 new trade policy. The tests, however, show significant evidence for breakpoints in 1993 in Israel's trade shares with three countries who had adhered strongly to the Arab boycott. This result suggests that the Middle East peace process, which began in 1991, considerably weakened the boycott and brought about positive changes in Israeli long-term trade patterns.     

Provision of Step-Level Public Goods with Uncertain Provision Threshold and Continuous Contribution

Common to most theoretical and empirical research on public goods is the assumption that the parameters of the game are common knowledge. Recent theoretical and empirical studies have questioned this assumption by arguing that many public goods situations are characterized by uncertainty regarding various aspects of the situation. In particular, Suleiman (1997) argued that members of production groups of step-level public goods are often uncertain about the value of the provision threshold. For this type of uncertainty he proposed three distinct models to account for the individual's contribution.The present study reports the results of an experiment designed primarily to test and contrast the predictions derived from two of these models – a subjective expected utility model and a cooperative model – regarding the effects of threshold uncertainty on contribution for the provision of step-level public goods. Other goals of the study were to test the joint effect of the threshold uncertainty level, and its mean (low vs. high), on contribution, and to examine the effect of threshold uncertainty on the individuals' estimates regarding the contributions of other group members.The results show that the effect of threshold uncertainty is moderated by the threshold mean: Contribution to the public good increased as a function of uncertainty for the lower threshold mean, and decreased (though not significantly) for the higher threshold mean. In contrast, for the two threshold means the subjects' estimates of the mean and variability of others' contribution increased with threshold uncertainty.The models' comparison revealed that the cooperative model was superior to the subjective expected utility model. This result adds to a substantial body of research on social dilemmas showing that under conditions of social (strategic) uncertainty, group members tacitly coordinate their choice behavior by anchoring their decisions on rules of fairness.     

On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR,Common Trends,and Common Cycles Evidence

The suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long‐run and short‐run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.     

Palestine's International Visitors Barriers: Case Studies of Bethlehem and Ramallah

This study investigated the demographic characteristics, the travel experiences and the intentions to revisit of international tourists to the cities of Bethlehem and Ramallah, which are located in Palestine. The study conducted a survey to collect data from 293 international visitors, 8 years after the second Palestinian uprising called ‘intifada’ began. The results revealed that the majority of the foreign tourists were Europeans who traveled for religious and spiritual purposes. Moreover, most of the tourists were willing to revisit Palestine. This study resulted in a comprehensive understanding of tourism characteristics under the current political circumstances of Palestine, leading to significant implications for tourism policy‐makers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis

The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is examined for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, the results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When only manufactured exports are examined, no support is found for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.     

EXPLORING THE LINK BETWEEN INFORMATION QUALITY AND SYSTEMATIC RISK

We examine the effect of information quality around earnings announcements and insider trading events on equity systematic risk. Our results indicate that observed systematic risk significantly increases after these events. Consistent with the insights provided by our framework, the change in systematic risk is increasing in the ratio of event‐related to pre‐event information quality. Our results have implications for all empirical work attempting to model security returns around firm and macroeconomic announcements.     

Equilibrium solutions for resource dilemmas

Considered in this article is a class of resource dilemma games designed to study interactive decision behavior in the face of both strategic and environmental uncertainty. Groups of n members are asked to share a common resource pool whose exact size, x, is not known. Rather, x is sampled randomly from a uniform probability distribution which is common knowledge. Each group member j(j=1,...,n) requests r _j units from the random resource pool. Individual decisions are made independently and anonymously. Preplay communication is prohibited. If (r ₁+r ₂+...+r _n ) x, each member j is granted his/her request; otherwise, group members get nothing. We derive the Nash equilibrium solution for this resource dilemma game, and compare it to an expected utility model originally proposed by Suleiman and Rapoport (1988). We then show that the equilibrium solution accounts for the major qualitative features of experimental results reported in two previous studies.