A computational general equilibrium model with vintage capital

This paper presents a vintage capital model assuming putty–clay investment and perfect foresight. The model is written in discrete time and is simulated by using a second order relaxation algorithm. By computing the eigenvalues of the dynamic system, we have checked the conditions of existence and uniqueness of a solution (Blanchard and Kahn's conditions) and identified the echo effect that characterizes vintage capital models and the related dynamics of creation and destruction. By calibrating the model on French data, it has been proved useful to explain the medium-term movements in the distribution of income in France during the last three decades.     

Recent developments in EC USSR commercial and economic relations

Conclusion Trade with the Soviet Union represents only a small part of total Community trade (3.5 % of EC imports and 2.7 % of EC exports in 1990). EC imports from the Soviet Union increased moderately between 1989 and 1990 as well as between the first six months of 1990 and the corresponding period of 1991, whilst EC exports decreased sharply as a result of hard currency shortage in the Soviet Union.The CMEA and Soviet disintegration processes will lead to a substantial reorientation of trade flows. This development has already begun with large increases of trade between the EC and the Central and Eastern European countries.International assistance to the USSR mainly consists of export credits. Community assistance involves a large proportion of grants and technical assistance. The cost of assistance measures envisaged so far remains limited for Western countries.The economic effects of assistance would be enhanced if effective coordination was implemented among the providers. Adequate mechanisms such as triangular operations or the untying of assistance would be required in order to avoid crowding out traditional suppliers from Soviet markets.     

Banks’ non-traditional activities under regulatory changes: impact on risk,performance and capital adequacy

Using the big six Canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018, we examine the impact of non-interest income on Canadian banks’ risk, performance and capital under the different major regulatory changes made to the Bank Act of Canada. Our results show that Canadian banks’ expansion into non-traditional activities had slightly decreased their risks and significantly improved their performance benefitting from income diversification. Moreover, while adhering to capital adequacy regulation, reshuffling banks’ portfolio towards non-traditional activities did not reduce Canadian banks’ capital ratio. In spite of the re-regulation towards universal banking against ring-fencing, this feature buttresses the effectiveness of capital adequacy regulation in Canada in linking banks capital allocation with their risk taking.     

Twenty years of economic transition in Russia: Results and lessons learned

The present article studies the events and processes that took place during the socioeconomic transformation in Russia. The positive and negative consequences of the reforms are considered, and their macroeconomic results are assessed. The article reveals the causes of the weak points in the present-day Russian economy and focuses on mistakes and wrong solutions that should be avoided in the future.     

Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study

This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union in East Asia focusing on business cycles synchronization. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the East Asian integration process, we study whether East Asian countries are characterized by business cycle synchronization. The related empirical literature dedicated to business cycles synchronization in East Asia does not lead to firm conclusion. In this paper, we suggest a different empirical approach allowing, contrary to the previous studies, to detect endogenously structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure based on the time-varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but it distinguishes also this dynamics between short- and long-term. We compute also cohesion statistics to test if countries tend to be more synchronized or not. The main finding of this paper is that the increase in bilateral trade inside the East Asian region significantly improves long-run business cycle synchronization. The short-run influence of bilateral trade shows mixed results. Indeed, short-run cycles remain significantly influenced both by shocks hitting each country and by economic policy responses. As a consequence, more bilateral trade and convergence in economic policy constitute two complementary processes to promote business cycle synchronization.     

Nonlinear models of analysis of variance

It seems quite natural for economists to decompose a series with several indexes (time, industry, etc.) into several series with one index apiece, each of which will be analyzed separately. This operation has generally been made in a linear way in the traditional analysis of variance, possibly after some transformation of the initial series. We propose to do this in a multiplicative way which does not allow us to use the basic theorems of econometrics, and which is near factor analysis. We present several kinds of estimators, study their statistical properties and finally compare our method to more classical ones, using a series of the distribution of dividends paid by French corporations, available over 11 years for 26 industries.     

EFFETS DES FACTEURS DE PRODUCTION ET EFFETS RÉGIONAUX SUR LE REVENU AGRICOLE

Plusieurs explications du has niveau des revenus agricoles par tête mettent sur le même plan des variables appartenant à des corps théoriques distincts et dont I'effct s'exerce dans des temps opératoires différents. Le concept d'une function agrégée de production à niveau variable selon les régions permet de synthétiser un certain nombre de variables affectant la productivité du travail agricole et donc la partie du revenu agricole qui est d'origine agricole. Les mouvements le long de la fonction agrégée de production expliquent les différences inter-régionales de productivité imputables aux facteurs de production et aux économies d'échelle tandis que les déplacements de la fonction mesurent les effets régionaux des conditions naturelles et/ou du développement urbain et industriel. Appliquée aux agricultures du Québec et de I'Ontario, I'analyse économétrique dégage le rôle croissant des effets régionaux par rapport à celui des facteurs de production tandis qu'une analyse graphique illustre la relation entre scolarité et revenu. RESOURCE AND AREA EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURAL INCOME: This paper is an attempt to measure, describe and analyze interregional differences in value productivity of labor in Quebec and Ontario agricultures, in 1951 and 1961. Measurement reveals important and persistent differences in the average value productivity of labor between regions. The list of economic and non-economic variables which influence labor productivity and thus agricultural per capita income is a growing one and it Is not always stressed to what theoretical body they belong and within what period of time they operate. In his paper some of the economic variables which have a bearing on agricultural per capita income at a given point of time at the regional level have been synthetized through the concept of an aggregate production function whose level is allowed to shift from region to region. It is then possible to analyze the regional differences in labor productivity in terms of capital and intermediate inputs associated with labor on farms, of scale economies and regional effects. This approach pertains only to the agricultural source of the per capita income of farmers, it does neither explain their decisions with respect to the capital and intermediate inputs used nor the nature of the regional effects; it calls for a second stage of explanation where the adjustment of agriculture to economic growth would enter the picture. Results of fitting Cobb-Douglas functions to county averages per farm observations show that capital and intermediate inputs and scale economies explain most of the regional differences in labour productivity in 1951; in 1961 scale economies and regional effects are more important than capital and intermediate inputs. Regions at the periphery of the group of regions between Quebec and Ottawa are shifting away from the aggregate production function for the two provinces. This movement means that in 1961 comparative (dis)advantages have become more pronounced than in 1951. At the level of personal characteristics of farmers, a graphical analysis shows a relationship between average value productivity of labor at the regional level and the proportion of farmers in each region having more than elementary schooling. Implications for the income and poverty problems are that the capital/labor ratio, the intermediate inputs/labor ratio, scale economies and location are important determinants of agricultural per capita income.     

DISPARITIÉS RÉGIONALES ET SCOLARITÉ EN AGRICUTURE

Une analyse graphique dégage, en 1961, pour ?agriculture québécoise et ontarienne, une relation entre la productivité moyenne en valeur de travail et le taux de scolarité de la population rurale agricole masculine, au niveau régional. La variable scolarité est introduite dans une fonction agrégée de production pour la province de Québec et son effet sur la production s'avère significatif. Les coefficients de régression de la variable scolarité et des autres, variables sont utilisés pour analyser les différences relatives de productivité du travail entre la région des environs de Montréal et la région de la Gaspésie-Côte-Nord. Comparativement à une analyse antérieure dont la scolaritéétait absente, celle-ci explique 6% de la différence de productivité. ?effet du taux de scolarité ne modifie guère les effets des autres variables, excepté celui de la région, qui est diminué du montant expliqué par la scolarité. La faible contribution du taux de scolaritéà?explication des différences régionales de productivité soulève la question ?un possible sous-investissement dans le capital humain en agriculture. REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND EDUCATION IN AGRICULTURE –A graphic analysis, at the regional level, in 1961, reveals in Quebec and Ontario agriculture, a relationship between the average value productivity of labour and the level of education of the agricultural rural male labor force. The education variable is introduced in the aggregate production function for Quebec agriculture and found to have a significant effect on production. The regression coefficient of the education variable is used, together with the other regression coefficients, to analyse the relative gap of labour productivity between the Montreal (environs) region and the Gaspe-Côte-Nord region. In comparison with a previous analysis excluding education, it is found that differences in education explain 6% of the gap, without altering much the effects of the other variables, except the regional effect, which is reduced by 6%. The small contribution of education to the explanation of the regional disparities in agricultural labor productivity might reflect the under investment in human capital.