Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks

This paper studies the nonlinear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy shocks and presents a new stylized fact. We show that uncertainty about monetary policy changes the way the term structure responds to monetary policy. A policy tightening leads to a significantly smaller increase in long-term bond yields if policy uncertainty is high at the time of the shock. We also look at the decomposition of bond yields into expectations about future policy and the term premium. The weaker response of yields is driven by the fall in term premia, which fall more strongly if uncertainty about policy is high. Conditional on a monetary policy shock, higher uncertainty about monetary policy tends to make securities with longer maturities relatively more attractive to investors. As a consequence, investors demand even lower term premia. These findings are robust to the measurement of monetary policy uncertainty, the definition of the monetary policy shock, and to changing the model specification.     

ASIA'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE

The global economic and financial landscape has been transformed over the past decade by the growing economic size and financial power of emerging economies. The new Group of Twenty summit process, which includes the largest emerging economies, has established high‐level international policy cooperation in this new setting. This article argues that effective global economic governance will also require changes in key global organizations—such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, and the Financial Stability Board—and closer collaboration between global and regional organizations. We suggest that federalism be introduced on a global scale by creating hierarchies of global and regional organizations with overlapping ownership structures in various functional areas (as is already the case with the World Bank and regional development banks in the area of development finance). Asia could contribute to this transformation by building effective institutions to promote macroeconomic and financial stability and deepen regional trade and investment integration. Similar logic could be applied to a broader issue of providing international public goods, such as environmental and climate protection, communicable disease control, and disaster risk management. (JEL F02, F13, F33, F55, O59)     

吴忠:财政为所当为

一个西部欠发达的地级市能够将多少财政收入用在民生上?"十一五"期间,吴忠市财政用于民生的支出共计180亿元,占同期财政一般预算支出的75%,最近两年甚至一度达到90%以上,笔者被深深触动了一下。这个比例确实不低!     

Forming and Dissolving Partnerships in Cooperative Game Situations

A group of players in a cooperative game are partners (e.g., as in the form of a union or a joint ownership) if the prospects for cooperation are restricted such that cooperation with players outside the partnership requires the accept of all the partners. The formation of such partnerships through binding agreements may change the game implying that players could have incentives to manipulate a game by forming or dissolving partnerships. The present paper seeks to explore the existence of allocation rules that are immune to this type of manipulation. An allocation rule that distributes the worth of the grand coalition among players is called partnership formation‐proof if it ensures that it is never jointly profitable for any group of players to form a partnership and partnership dissolution‐proof if no group can ever profit from dissolving a partnership. The paper provides results on the existence of such allocation rules for general classes of games as well as more specific results concerning well‐known allocation rules.     

The Bold and the Bankable: How the Nuestro Barrio Telenovela Reaches Latino Immigrants with Financial Education

This article presents and evaluates Nuestro Barrio, a Spanish‐language telenovela designed to reach Latino immigrants with financial education. Nuestro Barrio’s educational model is discussed in the context of the Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change, which defines the stages individuals move through as they make incremental progress toward sustained behavior change. The Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change is also used to inform a limited evaluation of the impact of Nuestro Barrio on viewer behavior. The empirical evidence is consistent with Nuestro Barrio’s intended educational effects, suggesting that Nuestro Barrio is particularly useful as a tool for raising viewer awareness.     

Measuring Strategic Uncertainty in Coordination Games

This paper proposes a method to measure strategic uncertainty by eliciting certainty equivalents analogous to measuring risk attitudes in lotteries. We apply this method by conducting experiments on a class of one-shot coordination games with strategic complementarities and choices between simple lotteries and sure payoff alternatives, both framed in a similar way. Despite the multiplicity of equilibria in the coordination games, aggregate behaviour is fairly predictable. The pure or mixed Nash equilibria cannot describe subjects' behaviour. We present two global games with private information about monetary payoffs and about risk aversion. While previous literature treats the parameters of a global game as given, we estimate them and show that both models describe observed behaviour well. The global-game selection for vanishing noise of private signals offers a good recommendation for actual players, given the observed distribution of actions. We also deduce subjective beliefs and compare them with objective probabilities.     

Combined Income Taxes and Tax-Benefit Systems

We extend the analysis of income tax progression to combined taxes, benefits, and the tax-benefit system. The overall redistributive impacts of constituent reforms are identified. Our findings point to the importance of interaction effects and demonstrate the dangers of isolated reforms.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF JAPANESE LOCAL-BENEFIT SEEKING

This paper examines the determinants of the allocation of Japan's central government spending across its prefectures. Using the framework developed by Atlas et al. (American Economic Review, 85: 3, June 1995, 624–629 ), the paper examines whether over-represented Japanese prefectures receive larger real per capita transfers than under-represented prefectures. A broad concern of the paper is whether institutions matter. Per capita representation of prefectures, party affiliation, and intra-party characteristics are found to be determinants of Japan's central government transfers. The results suggest that institutions do matter. ( JEL H3, H5, H6, H7)