Empirische Analyse des Einflusses der Überschussbeteiligung auf Neugeschäft und Storno

Recently, German insurers are becoming increasingly interested in assessing and modelling risks related to new business and lapses. The final report of a DAV (German actuarial association) working party on stochastic models for German life insurance companies, released end of 2005, includes some basic approaches for this purpose. However, so far no systematic empirical research has been carried out which provides evidence for an appropriate calibration of such models. This article contributes to closing the gap. It presents the main results of an empirical analysis on the influence of policyholders’ profit participation on new business and lapses based on data about 87 German life insurance companies from 1995—2004. Analyses of regression and correlation were performed for various definitions of the explanatory variable ?profit participation“ (more precisely: the spread to some average value) and with diverse reference parameters for new business and lapses, also considering different types of life insurance. Ultimately, the exploration scarcely yielded evidence for a significant general correlation between policyholders’ profit participation and new business or lapses. However, because of the individuality of life insurance business such an evaluation of historical data can certainly only be regarded as a building block for the overall picture, as is also explained in the paper in some more detail.     

Random regret minimization for consumer choice modeling: Assessment of empirical evidence

This paper introduces to the field of marketing a regret-based discrete choice model for the analysis of multi-attribute consumer choices from multinomial choice sets. This random regret minimization (RRM) model, which has recently been introduced in the field of transport, forms a regret-based counterpart of the canonical random utility maximization (RUM) paradigm. This paper assesses empirical results based on 43 comparisons reported in peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters, with the aim of finding out to what extent, when, and how RRM can form a viable addition to the consumer choice modeler's toolkit. The paper shows that RRM and hybrid RRM–RUM models outperform RUM counterparts in a majority of cases, in terms of model fit and predictive ability. Although differences in performance are quite small, the two paradigms often result in markedly different managerial implications due to considerable differences in, for example, market share forecasts.     

Leopold von Wieses „Gebildelehre“

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The impact of cultural environment on entry-level auditors’ abilities to perform analytical procedures

We focus on the impact of three of Hofstede’s cultural dimensions, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and individualism, on the results of analytical procedures conducted by entry-level auditors in Mexico and the U.S. Analytical procedures are ideal for this research as they require auditors to use professional judgment and appropriate levels of professional skepticism, abilities related to all three cultural characteristics. We find no other study investigating the impact of culture on the application of auditing procedures similar across the studied cultures.We find cultural characteristics do not affect the participants’ abilities to predict income statement balances, but they may influence the ability to predict changes in balance sheet accounts. We also find culture is associated with differences in risk assessments. Our results indicate that participants rarely differentiate accounts that change according to expectation from those that change contrary to expectation, but rather alter their risk assessments to match the direction of balances that increase or decrease.     

Convergence of interest rate pass-through in a wider euro zone?

This study investigates interest rate pass-through convergence for the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union. Based on a unifying empirical pass-through model that allows for thresholds, asymmetric adjustment, and structural changes, we find that the pass-through in many CEECs has become faster over time and is generally more complete than in the euro zone. We find evidence for convergence across CEECs with market concentration, bank health, foreign bank participation and monetary policy regime as conditioning factors. No convergence of the CEEC pass-through is found vis-à-vis the heterogeneous euro zone.     

Asian option pricing with orthogonal polynomials

In this paper we derive a series expansion for the price of a continuously sampled arithmetic Asian option in the Black–Scholes setting. The expansion is based on polynomials that are orthogonal with respect to the log-normal distribution. All terms in the series are fully explicit and no numerical integration nor any special functions are involved. We provide sufficient conditions to guarantee convergence of the series. The moment indeterminacy of the log-normal distribution introduces an asymptotic bias in the series, however we show numerically that the bias can safely be ignored in practice.     

Linking Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth

In the 1980s stagflation and high unemployment caused a renewed interest in supply side economics and in factors determining economic growth. Simultaneously, the 1980s and 1990s have seen a reevaluation of the role of small firms and a renewed attention for entrepreneurship. The goal of this survey is to synthesize disparate strands of literature to link entrepreneurship to economic growth. This will be done by investigating the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth using elements of various fields: historical views on entrepreneurship, macro-economic growth theory, industrial economics (Porter's competitive advantage of nations), evolutionary economics, history of economic growth (rise and fall of nations) and the management literature on large corporate organizations. Understanding the role of entrepreneurship in the process of economic growth requires the decomposition of the concept of entrepreneurship. A first part of our synthesis is to contribute to the understanding of the dimensions involved, while paying attention to the level of analysis (individual, firm and aggregate level). A second part is to gain insight in the causal links between these entrepreneurial dimensions and economic growth. A third part is to make suggestions for future empirical research into the relationship between (dimensions of) entrepreneurship and economic growth.     

Trading places: An experimental comparison of reallocation mechanisms for priority queuing

In a laboratory experiment, we compare two auction mechanisms that are designed to improve a queue's efficiency by allowing customers to trade places. In the server‐initiated auction, the server, when idle, sells the right to be served next to the highest bidding customer in the queue and distributes the proceeds among the remaining customers. In the customer‐initiated auction, new arrivals can sequentially trade places with queued customers. We use two novel experimental protocols to examine the behavioral properties of both auction mechanisms. We find that both auction mechanisms improve a queue's efficiency on average and that both perform equally well in terms of efficiency gain. We also find evidence of the sunk‐cost effect but not of the endowment effect. Participants indicated that they found the server‐initiated auction a fairer mechanism than the customer‐initiated auction. When voting between the two auctions, the participants tended to favor the server‐initiated auction.