Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value‐at‐Risk Framework

Multinational companies face increasing risks arising from external risk factors, e.g. exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, which they have learned to hedge using derivatives. However, despite increasing disclosure requirements, a firm's net risk profile may not be transparent to shareholders. We develop the ‘Component Value‐at‐Risk (VaR)’ framework for companies to identify the multi‐dimensional downside risk profile as perceived by shareholders. This framework allows for decomposing downside risk into components that are attributable to each of the underlying risk factors. The firm can compare this perceived VaR, including its composition and dynamics, to an internal VaR based on net exposures as it is known to the company. Any differences may lead to surprises at times of earnings announcements and thus constitute a litigation threat to the firm. It may reduce this information asymmetry through targeted communication efforts.     

Flexible estimation of price response functions using retail scanner data

Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects.     

Kriterien zur Beurteilung der weiteren Altersgrenzenanhebung in der GRV

Im April 2007 ist die „Rente mit 67“ verabschiedet worden. Wurden mit der eingeführten Prüfklausel M?glichkeiten geschaffen, die beschlossene Altersregelung zu modifizieren? Welche Folgen haben die Rentenreformen für die soziale Situation der Rentner? Prof. Dr. Winfried Schm?hl, 65, war viele Jahre Vorsitzender des Sozialbeirates der Bundesregierung und Direktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Abteilung des Zentrums für Sozialpolitik an der Universit?t Bremen. * Der Beitrag basiert teilweise auf Ausführungen des Verfassers anl?sslich eines Workshop des Sozialverbandes Volkssolidarit?t am 3. Juli 2007 in Berlin.     

A minimum corporate tax rate would be harmful for both high and low tax countries

Conclusion  The corporate tax policy of the new EU member states does create pressures for some of the old member states to reduce their corporate taxes, in particular statutory corporate tax rates. But reacting to this pressure by enforcing mimimum tax rates in the EU would be counterproductive. It would slow down the economic catching up process in eastern Europe and question the competitiveness of the entire EU as a location for investment compared to other countries and regions in the world economy. There are potential benefits from more coordination in the field of corporate taxation, but this coordination should aim at removing tax obstacles to border-crossing investment and at reducing the compliance costs of the tax system. This requires targeted measures in the area of tax base coordination. Introducing minimum corporate tax rates, in contrast, would be harmful for both high and low tax countries in the EU.     

Hans Mathias Kepplinger 60 Jahre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

A European perspective on public debt

Public debt in Europe has risen continuously over the last two decades. How is the transition to European Economic and Monetary Union, with the increasing economic interdependence between individual member states which it involves, likely to affect this situation? Which policy issues are of particular relevance in this setting?     

VI. Writschaftslehre der Unternehmungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung