The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks

How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

     

PERSONAL AND REGIONAL DETERMINANTS OF OUT‐MIGRATION FROM METROPOLITAN AREAS IN JAPAN

In this study, we focus on migration from metropolitan to outside areas in Japan, and quantitatively examine the personal and regional determinants of this process. At the regional level, our results show that the determinants of migration differ depending upon whether migration occurs from smaller to larger cities or vice versa. In the case of migration from larger to smaller cities, the residential environment beyond the metropolitan area is more important than employment opportunities. At the personal level, we analyzed the differences among the determinants of migration, looking at migrants according to age categories and based on their motivations for migrating. The main factors encouraging migration comprised opportunities for employment, education, and marriage.     

Free Trade Agreement and Vertical Trade with a Manufacturing Base

We examine the effects of free trade agreement (FTA) on tariffs and welfare in a three‐country model with vertical trade, where an FTA is formed between a country exporting a final good whose production involves using an intermediate good, and a country exporting the intermediate good in exchange for the final good. We demonstrate that the FTA reduces its member country's external tariff, whereas it raises the non‐member country's tariff. The non‐member country unambiguously becomes better off. In contrast, the FTA may or may not make its member countries better off. This implies that the formation of an FTA may not always be Pareto‐improving.     

Shift of the short-term temperature mortality relationship by a climate factor - some evidence necessary to take account of in estimating the health effect of global warming

Several studies have reported a 'V'-shaped relationship between short-term temperature and mortality rates, characterized by mortality rates that are higher when the temperature is extremely low or high than when the temperature is moderate. To quantify the effect of adaptation to a certain climate on this V-shaped short-term temperature-mortality relationship, we studied the prefecture-specific relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality rates for 65+-years-old Japanese from 1972 to 1990. For both genders, the optimum daily maximum temperature (OT) category at which the mortality rate was minimum ranged from 23C-28 C to 33+C, and the OT level became lower when the climate became colder. The mean OT level was lower for women than for men by 1.7C. The mortality rate at the OT was almost constant across prefectures, regardless of the climate. From the results, we considered that the adaptation effect on the short-term temperature-mortality relationship is mainly described by the 'horizontal shift model': the V-shape moves horizontally according to the climate. This 'shift' should be taken into account in estimating the health effect of global warming, and the model would be useful for the estimation.     

On the consumption insurance effects of long-term care insurance in Japan: Evidence from micro-level household data

Using micro-level household data in the 2001 Comprehensive Survey of the Living Conditions of the People on Health and Welfare compiled by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, this paper examines how having a household member in need of long-term nursing care can result in welfare losses measured in terms of consumption. In so doing, this study evaluates the role of the public long-term care insurance scheme implemented in Japan in April 2000. The results indicate that when households include a disabled family member, household consumption net of long-term care costs do not decrease as much as before the introduction of long-term care insurance. Further, when compared with the surveys conducted in 1998, the adverse effects on consumption net of long-term care costs have become much weaker. These findings suggest that the introduction of social insurance in 2000 helped Japanese households to reduce the welfare losses associated with a disabled family member.     

STRATEGIC EXPORT POLICY IN VERTICALLY RELATED MARKETS

This paper analyses how strategic export policies are affected by introducing an imperfectly competitive intermediate good into a Bertrand duopoly model with product differentiation, where a home and a foreign final‐good firm export to a third‐country market. It is shown that when the home and foreign markets for the intermediate good are segmented, the optimal export policy towards the final good is a tax. In contrast, under integrated markets, the optimal export intervention is a subsidy. Whether bilateral export intervention is welfare improving compared with free trade, depends on the degree of product differentiation between the home and foreign final goods.     

An Hedonic Analysis of the Rental Office Market in the Tokyo Central Business District: 1985–1994 Fiscal Years

We study the rental office market in the Tokyo central business district by estimating hedonic equations for the office rent for 1985–94 fiscal years. This period includes the "Bubble" of asset prices, followed by its deflation. We find that the characteristics related to transportational conveniences are less effective in explaining office rents than the characteristics related to the agglomeration of offices and the amenity characteristics of the office buildings themselves. Using a skewed error-term specification, we show that the discount in rental transactions is not irrelevant. The hedonic office rent indices and possible policy implications are also presented.
JEL Classification Numbers: L85, R32.     

An application of the extended cross impact method to generating scenarios of social change in Japan

Scenarios of Japanese society in 2000 are obtained by applying an extended correlational cross impact analysis. Since the scope of the scenarios is extensive, a procedure is developed to generate the scenarios that consists of a preprocessing of the events of interest and a step-by-step application of a cross impact method. Three scenarios are described, based on a workshop where the procedure was applied.