The Contribution of International Graduate Students to US Innovation

The impact of international students in the United States on innovative activity is estimated using a model of idea generation. Results indicate that the presence of foreign graduate students has a significant and positive impact on both future patent applications and future patents awarded to university and non-university institutions. Our central estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the number of foreign graduate students would raise patent applications by 4.5%, university patent grants by 6.8% and non-university patent grants by 5.0%. Thus, reductions in foreign graduate students from visa restrictions could significantly reduce US innovative activity. Increases in skilled immigration also have a positive, but smaller, impact on patenting.     

Electronic Commerce,Trade and Tariff Revenue: A Quantitative Assessment

This paper assesses the quantitative importance of electronic commerce in trade and tariff revenue, in light of the WTO decision on ‘duty‐free cyberspace’. Electronic commerce is likely to boost international trade in software, digitizable media products (music, books) and many services sectors significantly. However, despite the growing importance of electronic commerce for trade, tariff revenue loss from duty‐free electronic commerce is unlikely to be significant.     

The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and its Rules of Origin: Generosity Undermined?

This paper describes the United States recently enacted Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and assesses its quantitative impact on African exports. The AGOA expands the scope of preferential access of Africa's exports to the United States in key areas such as clothing. However, its medium‐term benefits – estimated at about US$100‐$140 million, an 8−11 per cent addition to current non‐oil exports – would have been nearly five times greater (US$540 million) if no restrictive conditions had been imposed on the terms of market access. The most important of these conditions are the rules of origin with which African exporters of clothing must comply to benefit from duty‐free access.     

Cross‐border mergers and acquisitions in services: The role of policy and industrial structure

This paper explores the role of policy and economic structure in determining international mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in services sectors. The analysis is based on bilateral sectoral M&A flow data and detailed information on policy barriers from a new database. Restrictive investment policies are found to reduce the probability of M&A inflows, controlling for bilateral frictions such as geography. This negative effect, however, is mitigated in countries with relatively large shares of manufacturing and (to a lesser extent) services in GDP. The same result holds for the number of M&A deals concluded. Findings are robust to accounting for the potential endogeneity of policy restrictiveness. The evidence suggests that the impact of policy is state‐dependent and related to the composition of GDP in the target economy.     

Trade effects of alternative carbon border-tax schemes

In industrial countries contemplating emissions reductions, there have been calls for additional border taxes on imports from countries with lower carbon prices. A key factor affecting the impact of any border taxes is whether they are based on the carbon content of imports or the carbon content of domestic production. Our quantitative estimates suggest that the former action when applied to all merchandise imports would address competitiveness and environmental concerns in high-income countries but with serious consequences for trading partners. For example, China’s manufacturing exports would decline by one-fifth and those of all low- and middle-income countries by 15 %; the corresponding declines in real income would be 3.7 and 2.4 %. Border tax adjustment based on the carbon content in domestic production would broadly address the competitiveness concerns of producers in high-income countries and less adversely affect developing country trade.     

Does services liberalization benefit manufacturing firms?: Evidence from the Czech Republic

While there is considerable empirical evidence on the impact of liberalizing trade in goods, the effects of services liberalization have not been empirically established. This study examines the link between services sector reforms and the productivity of manufacturing industries relying on services inputs. Several aspects of services liberalization are considered, namely, the presence of foreign providers, privatization and the level of competition. The results, based on firm-level data from the Czech Republic, show a positive relationship between services sector reform and the performance of domestic firms in downstream manufacturing sectors. Allowing foreign entry into services industries appears to be the key channel through which services liberalization contributes to improved performance of manufacturing sectors. This finding is supported by evidence that foreign acquisitions of Czech services providers result in profound changes in the labor productivity and sales of acquired firms. As most barriers to foreign investment today are not in goods but in services sectors, the findings of this study may strengthen the argument for reform in this area.     

The crisis-resilience of services trade

Much attention has been focused on the impact of the current crisis on goods trade; hardly any on its impact on services trade. Using new trade data from the USA, and more aggregate data from other OECD countries, the authors show that services trade is weathering the current crisis much better than goods trade. On the basis of new evidence from Indian services exporters, it is suggested that services trade is more robust relative to goods trade for three reasons: less cyclical demand; lesser dependence on external finance; and few explicitly protectionist measures so far taken in services.     

Labor Skills and Foreign Investment in a Dynamic Economy: Estimating the Knowledge‐capital Model for Singapore

Singapore is an interesting example of how the pattern of foreign investment changes with economic development. This paper studies inbound and outbound investment between Singapore and a sample of industrialized and developing countries over the period 1984–2007. Singapore's investments from industrialized nations shifted into skill‐seeking activities, while its investments in developing countries became concentrated in labor‐seeking production. The knowledge‐capital model is used to analyze the determinants of these shifts. The estimates suggest that a 10% increase in Singapore's skill differences with developing countries resulted in a 15.2% increase in outbound stocks of investment to the average recipient nation. A 10% decline in skill differences with industrialized countries after 1995 resulted in a 3.6% increase in inbound stocks from the average parent nation.     

Regionalism in standards: good or bad for trade?

Abstract.  Regional agreements on standards have been largely ignored by economists and blessed by multilateral trade rules. Using a constructed panel data that identifies the different types of agreements at the industry level, we find that such agreements increase the trade between participating countries but not necessarily with the rest of the world. Harmonization of standards may reduce the exports of excluded countries, especially in markets that have raised the stringency of standards. Mutual recognition agreements are more uniformly trade promoting unless they contain restrictive rules of origin, in which case intra-regional trade increases at the expense of imports from other countries.