Analysis of efficient markets

A simple trading model is presented in which Bayes’ rule is used to aggregate traders’ forecasts about risky assets’ future returns. In this financial market, Bayes’ rule operates like an omnipotent market-maker performing functions that in 1776 Adam Smith attributed to an “invisible hand.” We have analyzed two distinct cases: in the first scenario, the traders’ forecast errors are uncorrelated, and in the second scenario, the traders’ forecast errors are correlated. The contribution of our paper is fourfold: first, we prove that the “efficient market” mean-return can be expressed as a complex linear combination of the traders’ forecasts. The weights depend on the forecast variances, as well as on the correlations among the traders’ forecasts. Second we show that the “efficient” variance is equal to the inverse of the sum of the traders’ precision errors, and is also related to the correlations among the traders’ forecast errors. Third, we prove that the efficient market return is the best linear minimum variance estimator (BLMVE) of the security’s mean return (in the sense that it minimizes the sum of the traders’ mean squared forecast errors). Thus, an efficient market aggregates traders’ heterogeneous information in an optimal way. Fourth, we prove that an efficient market produces a mean return (price) as a Blackwell sufficient (most informative) experiment among all possible aggregated expected return (price) forecasts.     

Development and performance of Russian agricultural enterprises, 1990–2001

This article presents an overview of the development of Russian agricultural enterprises in 1990–2001. The multi‐layered structure of agriculture represented by different categories of non‐commercial and commercial producers requires a clear distinction of policies with respect to their targets and end results. The agricultural enterprises maintained their leading role in marketed agricultural production and represent the main focus group among the agricultural producers for policy makers. The article reviews organisational and structural changes to these enterprises in the period studied, and their economic and financial performance. It also examines current policies for resolving the problems in agriculture.     

Does interdependency affect firm and industry profitability? an empirical test

Strategy researchers have argued that heterogeneity in firms' practices and profitability within and across industries may derive from industry‐level differences in the extent of interdependencies among firms' activities. Theoretical models have clarified how and why differences in the extent of the interdependencies faced by firms across industries may affect the distributions of firm profits, but the specific predictions from these models have not been empirically tested. In this paper, we present what we believe is the first large scale empirical analysis linking differences in the extent of interdependencies across industries to differences in the distribution of firm profits within and across those industries. We use survey data to measure interdependencies systematically across a wide number of industries, thus addressing the primary obstacle to incorporating interdependencies in larger scale empirical work, and find evidence consistent with the theoretical predictions: average profitability is highest in industries with moderate levels of interdependency; the dispersion of profits among firms is higher in industries with more extensive interdependencies; and industries with more extensive interdependencies have a more positively skewed performance distribution. We find that the effect of interdependencies on average industry profitability is similar in scale to the effect of patent protection and industry growth rates, placing interdependency squarely among the strategy field's central concepts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new paradigm for forecasting security returns in a market regulated by price limits

Numerous futures markets in the US and many stock markets around the world set a “limit” price before each trading session, based on the settlement price at the end of the previous trading day. Price limits are boundaries set by market regulators to restrict large daily fluctuations in the price of securities. Once the return limit is triggered, traders cannot observe the equilibrium return that would have prevailed in the absence of such regulation. We develop an innovative approach for forecasting security returns (and prices) in a market regulated by price limits. Our forecasting model allows for multiple limit-hits. The model is robust, straightforward and easy for practitioners to use. A few numerical predictions are provided for hypothetical securities, and for seven traded futures contracts.     

Societal embedding and product creation management

Societal embedding of new products – that is, their integration in relevant industries and markets, their admissibility with regard to regulation and standards, and their acceptance by the public – is a challenge. A management approach is developed based on our case studies in the biotechnology sector and on recent innovation literature. Tools are presented to map internal and external alignments. Learning processes, in interaction with societal actors, overcome the dilemmas or at least make them manageable.     

Geopolitics and territorial issues: Relevance for South America

This paper surveys the impact of geopolitical thinking as applied to issues of territory in Latin America, with special emphasis upon its Southern Cone. The relevance of geopolitics is examined as an ideological doctrine and as a normative framework to understand territorial changes, territorial conflicts that have not escalated into fully‐fledged wars, and rare cases of actual wars fought in the twentieth century in South America. I question the changing meaning of geopolitical doctrines following the ‘third wave’ of democratization in Latin America by suggesting more ‘positive’ avenues for the former pernicious “implications of geopolitical doctrines, including economic development and regional integration. Finally, I juxtapose ‘conventional’ geopolitics with more recent ideas of ‘critical’ geopolitics and its potential implementation in the region.     

Governance modes for offshoring activities: A comparison of US and German firms

A new field of research centered on the offshoring of white-collar tasks is opening. We analyze the choice of governance mode for international offshoring activities based on a four-fold framework that integrates multiple theoretical perspectives. Firms choose between an internal or external mode based on their institutional environment, the offshoring behavior of similar firms in their reference group, firm-specific characteristics and objectives, and the particular setting of specific implementations. We test our relationships using detailed data on offshoring activities of US and German firms. Based on the outcomes we conclude that each dimension of the chosen framework is needed to explain the governance mode decisions of firms and this overarching framework may also be applicable to other topics in internationalization research.     

Co-evolution of global sourcing: The need to understand the underlying mechanisms of firm-decisions to offshore

In this introductory paper, we first discuss the emergence of global sourcing of business services and how these have been largely ignored in the IB field. Offshoring of business services has reached substantial proportions. Despite the radical growth, IB research on global sourcing is still in its infancy. Offshoring of business services represents a new type of internationalization. The offshoring of high-value services confronts companies with many of the challenges that are typical of an internationalization process in which well-known models and concepts of internationalization are applicable but also leave important unanswered questions requiring reconsideration and revision of these theoretical positions. Offshoring of business services is fundamentally different from outsourcing offshore of manufacturing activities. Using data from the Offshore Research Network (ORN), we track patterns of the emergence and diffusion of global sourcing of business services. On the basis of these new insights, we make a plea for a more encompassing, co-evolutionary perspective of global sourcing stressing the interactions between managerial intentionality, path-dependent experience and knowledge accumulation, as well as the institutional and selection forces. In particular, we develop a co-evolutionary offshore decision model integrating managerial intentionality, knowledge/experience and institutional and selection forces that explain the heterogeneous outcomes of offshoring. Although emergent outcomes of co-evolutionary dynamics are highly idiosyncratic, we identify in this paper some underlying mechanism that drive specific global sourcing patterns. Finally, we position the papers of this special issue in this co-evolutionary model.     

The cumulative nature of the entrepreneurial process: The contribution of human capital,planning and environment resources to small venture performance

The study is theoretically grounded in the resource-based view and applied to a service industry-tourism. It examined the performance of small ventures by utilizing an integrated dynamic model of entrepreneur choices and resource accumulation. Each phase in the process is added to previous one. Findings from 305 small tourism ventures revealed that the human capital of the entrepreneur, particularly managerial skills, were the greatest contributing factor to performance. This was followed by venture type. The study illustrates the unique nature of the entrepreneurial process among small ventures, often defined as “lifestyle businesses”.     

Linking participatory and GIS-based land use planning methods: A case study from Burkina Faso

Sustainable land use planning is crucial for realizing the aim of food security and for combating land degradation in the Sahel. A participatory land use planning workshop was organised in a village in the eastern region of Burkina Faso to investigate land use problems, their causes, effects and possible solutions. Participatory research tools and GIS were combined to get insight into possible conflicts or synergies between different land use options as mapped by different ethnic groups. Pictograms were used to locate alternative land use options on the map, after which they were digitised for analysis with GIS. The workshop confirms the importance of integrating scientific and local knowledge to develop concrete options for sustainable land use that fit to local realities and aspirations. Local people are knowledgeable about the driving forces behind land degradation, they take actions to combat the effects of degradation, and they have concrete ideas about alternative land use options. The use of GIS proved its added value in the participatory process of integrated land use planning. The maps that were produced also facilitate discussions between community members, researchers and government representatives at the regional level, both regarding current land use problems and regarding alternative options as perceived by the local population.