Regionalization, public spending and growth: a stylized model dealing with ‘predatory states’

In this paper, a micro-founded model analyzing the effects of ‘regionalization’ on economic activity is developed. It shows that the spatial division of public competencies can have an impact on the growth rate via the efficiency of governmental choices: initially advantageous for weak levels, decentralization (/reduction of regional size) becomes limited due to the risk of underestimation of the real profitability of public expenditure by local governments (non-internalized cross-border effects). In accordance with the theory, a transversal estimation for a sample of 51 countries for the 1990s establishes a ‘bell-shaped’ relation between indicators of regionalization and the quality of governance.     

Understanding Configuration and Transformation through a Multiple Rationalities Approach

Why are some transformational change attempts implemented while others are rejected? This study suggests that patterns of underlying multiple rationalities commitments help to explain. Data from four periods of configuration and 11 transformational change attempts spanning a 40-year organizational history are analysed using a multiple rationalities framework. The findings suggest that transformational change attempts are ubiquitous, that transformational changes are more likely to be implemented if supported primarily by value-based rationality, and that organizational members' support for an incumbent configuration increases over time. The conclusion calls for a reconceptualization of configuration, and the inclusion of rejected change attempts in future studies of change and stability.     

On Labour Market Policies and Aggregate Unemployment Outflows

This paper is interested in the modelling of the relationship between active and passive labour market policies and the aggregate unemployment outflow rate. Our model is based on a matching function and includes a simple representation of the competition between various groups of job searchers. The empirical analysis uses Belgian data. Faced with variables that are often integrated of order 1 according to the usual tests but which cannot strictly speaking be integrated, we contribute to an important methodological debate by comparing the conclusions of a classical econometric analysis and a cointegration approach.     

The relevance of currency risk in the EMU

We investigate how the elimination of intra-European exchange risk may affect international financial markets using a conditional version of the International CAPM. We estimate the EMU and non-EMU components of aggregate currency risk and document significant exposures to both. The premium for EMU risk is positive and associated with exposure to the French, Italian and Spanish currencies. The premium for non-EMU risk is consistently negative and accounts for most of the aggregate currency premiums. In the 1990s, exposures to EMU risk declined significantly while exposures to non-EMU risk increased. Hence the adoption of the Euro is unlikely to have a large impact on aggregate currency risk premiums.     

A de Finetti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo type integral representation theorem for generalized means on masses

We point out that the Consistency, Continuity and Associativity properties of an extended realvalued functionalm on masses are the basic notions to get a de Finetti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo type integral representation ofm.

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Riassunto Come è noto il teorema di de Finetti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo formisce una rappresentazione integrale di particolari funzionali reali, detti medie, definiti per funzioni di ripartizione che distribuiscono l'intera massa su un prefissato intervallo chiuso e limitato dell'asse reale.Nel lavoro [2] gli autori hanno esteso la nozionc di media, considerata ancora come funzionale reale, dalle funzioni di ripartizione alle masse (misure finitamente additive limitate e non negative). In questo modo, estendendo ad essa le usuali proprictà (internalità, associatività, etc.), sono riusciti a provare un teorema di rappresentazione integrale analogo a quello di de Finctti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo per medie continue ed associative definite su opportuni insiemi di masse tight (cio prive di masse aderenti a – e+).In questo lavoro, naturale prosccuzione del preccedente, si prendono invecc in considerazione medic generalizzate (cioè medie che possono assumere valori reali oppure anche i valori – c+) e masse non neccssariamente tight. Si fa allora vedere che le nozioni di consistenza, continuità e associatività per un funzionale a valori nella retta compatta e definito sulle masse non nulle, sono condizioni caratteristiche per ottencre una sua rappresentazione integrale del tipo de Finctti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo. Si prova inoltre che, a differenza della media ariumetica, le medic generalizzate continue ed associative possono assumere valori non reali solamente su opportune masse non tight.

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Work performed under the auspices of the National Group for Sthocastic Models and Mathematical Statistics (M.R.S.T. 40%) and G.N.A.F.A. of C.N.R.     

Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model

Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats.     

Adaptability, productivity, and educational incentives in a matching model

We study the connections between the labour market and the education sector in a matching framework with ex-post wage bargaining. Workers have multidimensional skills and the search market is segmented by technology. Education is a time-consuming activity and determines jointly the scope - or adaptability - and intensity - or productivity - of individual skills. We establish three main results. First, unemployment provides incentives to schooling by raising the need for adaptability. Second, private returns to productivity are below social returns, but no hold-up phenomenon is involved. Third, due to wage and congestion externalities, private returns to adaptability exceed social returns. As a consequence, both over- and under-education may take place in equilibrium.     

The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure

Air transportation is a key strategic asset in that it provides access to markets and thereby enables the economic development of nations. Thus, in order to maintain their competitiveness in a global economy, countries must invest in air transportation infrastructure to ensure their ability to meet current and future demand for aviation services. The objective of this paper is to develop and illustrate a methodology for evaluating the strategic value of air transportation infrastructure, in particular the benefits associated with the ability to react quickly to changes in the market. The hypothesis is that by recognizing and taking advantage of this strategic value, it may be possible to design better policies for aviation infrastructure delivery.The methodology developed here uses system dynamics to model different strategies for infrastructure delivery. These strategies are defined by three variables: the amount of capacity increase, the time to deliver the capacity and the congestion threshold that triggers the need for capacity delivery. Monte Carlo simulation is used to take into account multiple sources of uncertainty. The model shows that a strategy of capacity delivery based on small increments and short response times can yield more benefits than strategies that consider large capacity increases and long response times. Furthermore, in the specific airport example considered here, it was found that a congestion threshold of 75% should be the trigger for capacity enlargements if strategies based on small capacity increments and 1 or 5 years to increase capacity are considered. The lesson for decision-makers is that congestion delays must be addressed with foresight.     

Representing complete and incomplete subjective linear preferences on random numbers

We show that preferences on random numbers which satisfy certain natural properties can be represented, in the setting of topological vector spaces, by a suitable family of continuous previsions which is, in a sense, unique. Moreover, for most commonly used spaces of random numbers, we establish that one can derive these preferences, via an expectation operator, from a suitable family of probabilities (whether or not finitely additive). Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 06A06, 62C05, 91B06 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D11, D81