Asymmetric Loss and the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South Korea

We examine asymmetry in the loss functions of South Korean consumers' and the Bank of Korea's (BOK) inflation forecasts, and test the rationality of these forecasts under the assumption of a possible asymmetric loss function. Under an asymmetric loss function, we find evidence of asymmetry and support for rationality. We also examine whether the BOK's forecasts incorporate respective forecasts and consensus forecasts efficiently. They broadly use available information efficiently, and their results are robust to inflation‐targeting measures and the recent global financial crisis. However, our results suggest that the information efficiency of the BOK's forecasts for consumers was affected during the period 2007–2008.     

The role of the business press in the pricing of analysts’ recommendation revisions

We investigate the information-dissemination role of the business press by examining the coverage of analyst recommendation revisions. Consistent with the press providing wider dissemination of analyst reports, we find evidence that coverage of analyst recommendation revisions significantly increases the initial market reaction to these revisions and decreases the subsequent price drift. Furthermore, we find that news flash coverage, rather than in-depth coverage, of a recommendation revision drives both the initial market reaction results and drift results. Finally, we show that broader press coverage influences the activities of large-trade institutional investors but not high-frequency traders. Overall, our findings suggest a complementary role between analysts and the business press: increased dissemination of recommendation revisions, rather than information creation on the part of the business press, serves to better inform the market about analyst recommendation revision decisions.

     

Estimating the direct impact of bank liquidity shocks on the real economy: Evidence from letter‐of‐credit import transactions in Colombia

This study identifies and provides an estimate of the impact of bank liquidity shocks on real economic activity by exploring letter‐of‐credit import transactions in Colombia during the 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis. The detailed dataset on letter‐of‐credit transactions allows for exploiting within‐importer–exporter variation across issuing banks. The study finds substantial effects of bank liquidity shocks on letter‐of‐credit import transactions: banks that were more vulnerable to adverse liquidity shocks—proxied by the ex ante reliance on wholesale funding or borrowings from foreign banks—reduced letter‐of‐credit issuances more in both intensive and extensive margins. The study also confirms that it had real effects: importer–exporter pairs that relied more on letter‐of‐credit transactions experienced a greater reduction in their total imports in response to adverse bank liquidity shocks.     

Have SFAS 166 and SFAS 167 improved the financial reporting for securitizations?

Critics have alleged that securitization accounting prior to 2010 was among the causes of the recent financial crisis. In response to this criticism, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) implemented two new accounting standards, SFAS 166 and SFAS 167, to improve the financial reporting for securitizations. Bank regulators have stated their belief that SFAS 166/167 will result in a consolidated balance sheet (and risk-based capital ratios based thereupon) that better reflects a bank's exposure to risk related to securitized assets. We document that, by ceding retained power or influence through the servicing/special servicing functions to third parties, SFAS 166/167 resulted in real effects to the extent that banks (particularly those that were weakly capitalized) achieved their accounting objectives in the post-SFAS 166/167 period through legitimate transaction structuring in line with the intent of the new rules. Further, we use capital market participants’ assessments of risk retention by sponsoring banks as a benchmark, and provide evidence consistent with bank regulators’ beliefs. In particular, following SFAS 166/167, equity investors of sponsoring banks do not consider (consider) as risk relevant securitized assets that receive off-balance sheet (on-balance sheet) treatment. Securitized assets that are consolidated under SFAS 166/167 exhibit the same risk relevance as assets that are not securitized, despite contractual provisions that would seem to imply substantial risk transfer.     

The role of intermediaries in facilitating trade

This paper documents that intermediaries play an important role in facilitating international trade. We modify a heterogeneous firm model to allow for an intermediary sector. The model predicts that firms will endogenously select their mode of export - either directly or indirectly through an intermediary - based on productivity. The model also predicts that intermediaries will be relatively more important in markets that are more difficult to penetrate. We provide empirical confirmation for these predictions using the firm-level census of China's trade, and generate new facts regarding the activity of intermediaries. We also provide evidence that firms begin to export directly after exporting through intermediaries.     

Analysis and design of microfinance services: A case of ROSCA

Rotating savings and credit association (ROSCA) is a well-known microfinance association widely used in many countries around the world with long histories. By considering extra profits that such a system can provide when compared to banking transactions, we develop optimization problems to achieve an optimal design of a ROSCA. We find that ROSCAs might attract investors when deposit and loan rates from formal banking systems are not favorable. Furthermore, optimal rates and optimal orders to maximize system outputs are reported.     

Developing Group Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator Weights for Group Decision Support

A few single decision-making methods under uncertainty (SDMUU) are available in the literature. The reason for such scarcity seems to be mainly due to too insufficient information to induce a reasonable result for effective decision support. Moreover their final outcomes on the same SDMUU problem may be different depending on which method is applied. A group decision-making method under uncertainty (GDMUU) extends a SDMUU in a sense that a group of individuals, each expressing different opinions, work together to solve a relevant problem. As in a SDMUU, we find that just a few methods are available to solve a GDMUU problem. In the paper, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, originally devised for use with the SDMUU problem, is considered to deal with a GDMUU problem where individuals of a group express their degree of optimism in terms of attitudinal characters. We first find the extreme points corresponding to the attitudinal character and then solve a quadratic mathematical program which minimizes a squared distance from each extreme point identified. Thus the resulting OWA operator weights for the group are located at the center of the weights-space constructed by attitudinal characters. This idea is further extended to deal with uncertain attitudinal character expressed in the form of interval in situations where it is difficult to reliably obtain a precise attitudinal character due to time pressure and a limited domain knowledge and so on.     

Vivid-memory formation through experiential value in the context of the international industrial exhibition

This study empirically tests the relationships between experiential value, vividness, storytelling intentions, and patronage intentions in the industrial exhibitions, and examines the moderating effect of mementos. A total of 211 respondents were recruited from visitors to the international game exhibition. According to the results, (1) three dimensions of experiential value (service excellence, playfulness, and aesthetics) had positive effects on vividness, (2) vividness positively influenced storytelling and patronage intentions, (3) storytelling intentions increased patronage intentions, and (4) mementos had a significant moderating effect on the relationship between vividness and storytelling intentions but not on the relationship between vividness and patronage intentions.     

Analysis of Korean millennials’ travel expenditure patterns: an almost ideal demand system approach

ABSTRACT

Generational cohorts can differ in their consumption patterns and preferred travel behavior. As the millennial generation represents an important economic force and influences new consumption trends, this study utilizes nationwide data and almost ideal demand system (AIDS) approach to examine expenditure patterns of Korean travelers during holidays. In this process, the joint effects of travel-related characteristics are also examined. The results of the AIDS estimation on data from 871 domestic travelers reveal significantly different travel expenditure patterns for cohorts. The findings contribute to furthering the understanding of how different generational cohorts allocate their travel budgets to respective travel expenditure categories.     

Socially responsible investment fund performance: the impact of screening intensity

Perhaps the most common criticism of socially responsible investment funds is that imposing non‐financial screens restricts investment opportunities, reduces diversification efficiencies and thereby adversely impacts performance. In this study we investigate this proposition and test whether the number of screens employed has a linear or curvilinear relation with return. Moreover, we analyse the link between screening intensity and risk. Screening intensity has no effect on unadjusted (raw) returns or idiosyncratic risk. However, we find a significant reduction in α of 70 basis points per screen using the Carhart performance model. Increased screening results in lower systematic risk – in line with managers choosing lower β stocks to minimize overall risk.