The relation between municipal and government bond yields in an era of unconventional monetary policy

In this paper, we investigate how the 5‐year Swedish municipal bond yield has been related to the corresponding yield on government bonds during the period that the Riksbank has conducted unconventional monetary policy in terms of bond purchases. Using daily Swedish data on bond yields from February 2015 to January 2018, we first conduct an event study to assess the short‐run effects of the Riksbank's bond‐purchase announcements. We then estimate bivariate vector autoregressive models to study the dynamic relationship between the yields. Results from the event study suggest that the accumulated short‐run effect of the Riksbank's announcements was to lower the government bond yield by approximately 40 to 50 basis points and municipal bond yields by 30 to 35 basis points. Our vector autoregressive analysis indicates—in line with the event study—that an unexpected decrease in the government bond yield initially increases the municipal bond‐yield spread. However, after approximately 4 weeks, the effect has been reversed and the municipal bond‐yield spread is lower than it was initially. By conducting this analysis, we contribute to the understanding of the transmission of unconventional monetary policy.     

Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by the opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational wind farms. This paper describes a novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical access conditions during crew transfers. Methods of generating density forecasts of significant wave height and peak wave period are developed and evaluated. It is found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well as a non-parametric approach. Scenario forecasts of sea-state variables are generated and used as inputs to a data-driven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded during 700 crew transfers. This enables the production of probabilistic access forecasts of vessel motion during crew transfer up to 5 days ahead. The above methodology is implemented on a case study at a wind farm off the east coast of the UK.     

Circular business model implementation: A capability development case study from the manufacturing industry

Circular business models (CBMs) have huge potential to deliver economic, social, and environmental benefits, but CBMs have yet to be implemented widely in industrial settings. One reason is that they are often presented as one-size-fits-all solutions, but this is misplaced because product-specific criteria and company capabilities determine the correct choice and implementation of CBMs. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how CBM selection and capability development facilitates the implementation of CBMs. For this purpose, we have adopted a qualitative research approach and undertaken 25 explorative interviews in three large Swedish manufacturing companies. In this paper, a CBM implementation framework consisting of two parts has been developed. The first part addresses the choice of the appropriate CBM based on tactical configurations. The second part provides a capability development path by explicating underlying routines that need to be progressively developed in order to move smoothly to more advanced CBMs.     

An Ethical Inquiry of the Effect of Cockpit Automation on the Responsibilities of Airline Pilots: Dissonance or Meaningful Control?

Journal of Business Ethics - Airline pilots are attributed ultimate responsibility and final authority over their aircraft to ensure the safety and well-being of all its occupants. Yet, with the...     

Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions

We examine risk profiles of the Portuguese stock market index component stocks using a novel approach to the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Specifically, we estimate the CAPM via fractal regressions that allow studying the marginal effects at selected scales. In this way, we can reveal whether the risk is perceived differently by market participants with different investment horizons. Apart from the analysis itself, we provide new statistical insights into the issue of separating and comparing the scale-specific effects with statistical validity. We find several stocks deviating from an expected risk perception homogeneity across investment horizons. This is true for both analysed periods, i.e. before and after the global financial crisis. There are also several stocks that changed their relationship to the market portfolio in between, which has strong implications for possible portfolio construction. The proposed methodology is not limited to financial topics but can be used in any discipline where the scale-specific marginal effects might be of interest.     

Human resource management practices and voluntary turnover: a study of internal workforce and external labor market contingencies

We tested relationships between employee quit rates and two bundles of human resource (HR) practices that reflect the different interests of the two parties involved in the employment relationship. To understand the boundary conditions for these effects, we examined an external contingency proposed to influence the exchange-based effects of HR practices on subsequent quit rates – the local industry-specific unemployment rate – and an internal contingency proposed to shape employees’ conceptualization of their exchange relationship – their employment status (i.e. full-time, part-time and temporary employment). Analyses of lagged data from over 200 Canadian establishments show that inducement HR practices (e.g. extensive benefits) and performance expectation HR practices (e.g. performance-based bonuses) had different effects on quit rates, and the former effect was moderated by unemployment rate. The effects of HR practices on quit rates did not differ between FT and PT employees, but a different pattern of main and interactive effects was found among temporary workers. These findings suggest that employees’ exchange-based decisions to leave may be less affected by the number of hours they expect to work each week, and more by the number of weeks they expect to work.     

The Structure of Problem Structuring Conversations: A Boundary Games Approach

One of the questions associated with facilitated problem structuring is how the micro level of actors’ multimodal communications, contributes to the emergence of a macro level, framing the possibilities for action in a workshop. This paper shows a way to study this macro level, building the visualization of the conversations’ structure starting from a boundary games theory micro analysis of the interactions. Our empirical evidence comes from following a group of academic consultants working to define a value proposition for their activity. We focus on analyzing two out of nine workshops that were felt diametrically opposite in terms of facilitation and achievements. Moving from the micro towards an upward level, three configurations building the structure are identified—shifting, branching and converging. The work carried out allows us to: (1) visualize the structure of conversations in a problem structuring context, (2) highlight the role of multimodal communications in building the conversations and (3) construct an interpretation bridging the micro and macro readings of a workshop. This knowledge is useful for facilitators guiding the dynamic of a workshop and for researchers looking forward to understanding how micro level interactions build higher levels of the social phenomenon of intervention.     

Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013

In this paper we investigate the long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in the Spanish economy for the period 1851–2013. We develop a cliometric analysis of the debt–growth nexus using novel time series methods. We find some support for a negative relationship between both variables, but no clear evidence of a debt threshold. The estimated long-run elasticity in a one-break model shows a tendency to decrease over time from a nonsignificant 0.011 to a ?0.070, indicating that a 10 percentage increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with 0.70 percentage points lower real economic growth. Indeed, we find for the first subsample (1851–1939) either “decoupling” or “saturation,” while in the second subsample (1940–2000) the long-run elasticity coefficient becomes negative and significant. When we extend our analysis up to 2013, we find a break in 1971 coinciding with the twilight of Franco’s dictatorship and the Spanish transition to democracy.     

Structural comparisons of networks and model-based detection of small-worldness

In this paper, we consider the problem of assessing the “level of small-worldness” of a graph and of detecting small-worldness features in real networks. After discussing the limitations of classical approaches, based on the computation of network indicators, we propose a new procedure, which involves the comparison of network structures at different “observation scales”. This allows small-world features to be caught, even if “hidden” deeply into the network structure. Applications of the procedure to both simulated and real data show the effectiveness of the proposal, also in distinguishing between different small-world models and in detecting emerging small-worldness in dynamical networks.