EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS, FIRM SIZE, AND THE INFORMATIVENESS OF STOCK PRICES

The notion that prices impound a wide array of information, including market expectations, has led to earnings forecast models conditioned on prices. Yet, presumably, analysts' forecasts capture both public information and certain private information not previously impounded in prices. Accordingly, price-based models are seemingly an inefficient, and less effective, source of expecta-tions. This article investigates this hypothesis using financial analysts', price-based, and naive forecasts. Results indicate that analysts' forecasts (1) are at least as accurate as price-based and naive models, and (2) yield better expectations for market tests relating returns and earnings. These inferences are robust across different information environments. The evidence suggests that analysts either possess private information or are more effective information processors, or both.     

Partial International Coordination in the Great Fish War

This study extends the great fish war model of Levhari and Mirman [Levhari, D. and Mirman, L. (1980) Bell Journal of Economics 11: 322–344] by incorporating a multiple country context into the model and investigates the existence of a partial coordination Nash equilibrium. First, findings of this paper suggest that a partial coordination scheme is sustainable only in limited cases. Any coalition that has more than two member countries cannot be sustained. Second, the existence and the number of coordinating countries depend critically on the magnitude of the biological and preference parameters. Finally, if the coalition is assumed to be a dominant player, there always exist one or two welfare-improving sustainable coalitions and the size of the sustainable coalitions depends on the parameters of the problem.     

Finite Dimensional Affine Realisations of HJM Models in Terms of Forward Rates and Yields

Finite dimensional Markovian HJM term structure models provide ideal settings for the study of term structure dynamics and interest rate derivatives where the flexibility of the HJM framework and the tractability of Markovian models coexist. Consequently, these models became the focus of a series of papers including Carverhill (1994), Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1995), Bhar and Chiarella (1997), Inui and Kijima (1998), de Jong and Santa-Clara (1999), Björk and Svensson (2001) and Chiarella and Kwon (2001a). However, these models usually required the introduction of a large number of state variables which, at first sight, did not appear to have clear links to the market observed quantities, and the explicit realisations of the forward rate curve in terms of the state variables were unclear. In this paper, it is shown that the forward rate curves for these models are affine functions of the state variables, and conversely that the state variables in these models can be expressed as affine functions of a finite number of forward rates or yields. This property is useful, for example, in the estimation of model parameters. The paper also provides explicit formulae for the bond prices in terms of the state variables that generalise the formulae given in Inui and Kijima (1998), and applies the framework to obtain affine representations for a number of popular interest rate models.     

The effect of differential accounting conservatism on the “over-valuation” of high-tech firms relative to low-tech firms

This paper examines systematic differences in the level of accounting conservatism between high-tech and low-tech firms. Relying on the recent development in theoretical models and empirical measures of conservatism, we investigate conservative accounting practices and earnings management behavior in high-tech and low-tech firms. The results based on comparisons of cumulative nonoperating accruals, regression coefficients from the income timeliness models in Basu (1997), the distribution of earnings, and discretionary accruals between the two groups are consistent with a higher level of accounting conservatism in high-tech firms vis-à-vis low-tech firms. Additional analyses show that the effect of conservatism cannot be used as a defense for the over-valuation of high-tech firms.     

How about selling commodity futures losers?

This paper explores the benefits of extending the investment universe to commodity futures, from the perspective of momentum traders. We find that the growth-optimal portfolio includes negative (positive) weights on commodity futures losers (stock winners). Motivated by this finding, we construct a joint momentum strategy, buying stock winners and selling commodity futures losers, and show that it generates an average monthly return of up to 1.91% and provides much lower skewness (0.04) and kurtosis (1.27) than a traditional stock momentum strategy. It also greatly improves profitability, especially in unfavorable market states, and thus effectively manages tail risk.     

Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G‐7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach

This paper estimates structural vector autoregression models of output, the real exchange rate and trade balance for the group of seven leading advanced economies (G‐7). Unlike previous studies, we do not impose long‐run purchasing power parity as an identifying assumption; instead, the shocks underlying the model are structurally identified using a set of theory‐consistent sign restrictions. Empirical results show that nominal shocks account for most of the long‐run variability in trade balances across the G‐7 countries. We are able to attribute this finding to long‐run movements in the real exchange rate, as the real exchange rate is significantly affected by nominal shocks in the long run.     

Personalized goal-based investing via multi-stage stochastic goal programming

In this paper, we propose a goal-based investment model that is suitable for personalized wealth management. The model only requires a few intuitive inputs such as size of wealth, investment amount, and consumption goals from individual investors. In particular, a priority level can be assigned to each consumption goal and the model provides a holistic solution based on a sequential approach starting with the highest priority. This allows strict prioritization by maximizing the probability of achieving higher priority goals that are not affected by goals with lower priorities. Furthermore, the proposed model is formulated as a linear program that efficiently finds the optimal financial plan. With its simplicity, flexibility, and computational efficiency, the proposed goal-based investment model provides a new framework for automated investment management services.     

Auditors' Responses to Workload Imbalance and the Impact on Audit Quality*

Using detailed data for fieldwork hours and audit hours by rank from audit engagements in Korea, we examine whether audits conducted under workload imbalance, proxied by busy‐season audits, impair audit quality, and how auditors adjust staff assignments for busy‐season audits. We generally find that busy‐season audits are associated with lower audit quality, and that audit firms reduce the involvement of senior auditors during busy‐season audits. In addition, the greater the involvement of senior auditors and junior auditors, the lesser the deterioration in audit quality. Finally, although there is no increase in interim audits in response to workload imbalance during busy seasons, increasing interim audits can mitigate the negative impact of busy‐season audits on audit quality. Our results are relevant to auditors and regulators, who have expressed concerns about the adverse effects of workload imbalance on audit quality.     

What Does CEOs’ Pay-for-Performance Reveal About Shareholders’ Attitude Toward Earnings Overstatements?

If overstatements were a symptom of the agency conflict, pay-for-performance sensitivities should have increased in response to the additional penalties for misreporting imposed by SOX. Our finding of their decrease is inconsistent with the view that overstatements were an unintended consequence of incentive pay prior to 2002. To corroborate our interpretation, we show that (i) CEO pay-for-performance sensitivities are higher among firms whose shareholders stand to benefit from overstatements; (ii) this cross-sectional relationship weakens significantly after SOX; and (iii) the within-firm decrease in pay-for-performance sensitivity is most pronounced among firms with high pre-SOX shareholder benefits from overstatements.     

Relationship regarding the demand for labor between domestic temporary and foreign workers: Korean case

With the progress of globalization, South Korea, one of the emerging industrial countries, has recently witnessed a sharp increase in the number of enterprises that employ foreigners. However, there are only a limited number of studies on the influence that such an increase has had on the labor market in the Republic of Korea. Thus, using ‘Workplace Panel Survey’ data surveyed by the Korea Labor Institute (KLI), this paper examines the relationship concerning the labor demand of an establishment between domestic temporary and foreign workers. Analysis using a bivariate Tobit model shows that a typical Korean firm attempts to employ domestic temporary and foreign workers simultaneously. Further, the empirical analysis found that any establishment that is relatively newly established and has difficulty in recruiting domestic workers hires foreign workers, but there is no evidence that establishments hire foreign workers rather than domestic temporary workers to save on the production cost.