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An Overview   总被引:152,自引:0,他引:152  
MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -  相似文献
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Behavioral axioms about preference orderings among gambles and their joint receipt lead to numerical representations consisting of a subjective utility term plus a term depending upon the events and the subjective weights. The results here are for uncertain alternatives, in much the same sense as Savage’s usage. Several open problems are described. Results for the risky case are in a second article.   相似文献
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We specialize our results on entropy-modified representations of event-based gambles to representations of probability-based gambles by assuming an implicit event structure underlying the probabilities, and adding assumptions linking the qualitative properties of the former and the latter. Under segregation and under duplex decomposition, we obtain numerical representations consisting of a linear weighted utility term plus a term corresponding to information-theoretical entropies. These representations accommodate the Allais paradox and most of the data due to Birnbaum and associates. A representation of mixed event-and probability-based gambles accommodates the Ellsberg paradox. We suggest possible extensions to handle the data not accommodated.   相似文献
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János Gács 《Empirica》2003,30(3):271-303
The article analyzes that how much and to what directionthe inherited structure of the Central and East Europeancandidate countries was transformed in recent years, andwhat this shift meant for their real convergence in theenlarged EU. A rearrangement of historical importanceoccurred across the main sectors contributing to GDP, inthe framework of which services have been emancipated.Transition in manufacturing was characterized by a largevariation among countries in terms of speed of restructuring.Good output performance, however, is found not necessarilyassociated with large structural shifts. The dominance oflabor intensive products in manufacturing indicates thatproductivity catching up will necessitate further massiveshifts in this sector in some candidate countries. The moveaway from central planning meant also a drastic fall indomestic savings which, from the point of view catching up,shifted the emphasis to the ability to attract foreign savingsand the efficient use of savings in general.  相似文献
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János Gács 《Empirica》1994,21(1):83-104
The direct effect of market losses in CMEA on Hungarian output was 4%, out of the 18% decline registered in gross output in 1988–1992. Total (direct and indirect) effects amounted to 8%. In the same period Hungary's export expansion in western markets led to direct and total effects equivalent to 2.9% and 5.6% of the 1988 output, respectively. The share of reorientation within this switch from east to west was not negligible, it amounted to 19% of respective trade volumes. The 1991 price explosion of imported inputs inhibited the activity of Hungarian firms only moderately, due to earlier realistic domestic prices. In 1991 Hungary suffered a 26% terms of trade loss, and could have experienced an income terms of trade loss of USD 1400 to 1600 million, had the trade volume of 1990 been repeated. Since adjustments in 1991, much smaller income losses accrued. Due to earlier special tax arrangements, much of the burden of terms of trade losses had to be born by the budget.  相似文献
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The reform of the Hungarian economic mechanism during 1979 and 1982 is discussed. The new administrative constraints on prices are criticized; the first steps towards disintegration of trusts and large enterprises and towards formation of small enterprises and cooperatives are regarded as promising, as are the measures that give more scope to entrepreneurship and legalization of activities in the “second economy.” The relation between growth policy and the economic mechanism as well as the “investment hunger” and the changes of the intensity of shortage are then examined. The future of the reform process is discussed briefly.  相似文献
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