How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015

Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion, international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylized fact, this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source markets, and by category) over the period 1981–2015. Finally, the empirical analysis allows us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies.     

The advertising performance of non-ideal female models as a function of viewers' body mass index: a moderated mediation analysis of two competing affective pathways

Advertisements often display ideal female bodies which create unattainable standards of beauty, generating body anxiety and disorders in female viewers. Accordingly, public health concerns would encourage the use of natural, unedited models in advertisements. However, the advertising performance of natural models remains contentious. We argue that previous inconsistent findings about this performance may result from a complex causal framework in which natural models impact performance through two affective mediators (body anxiety, and repulsion toward the model), while allowing moderation by the viewer's own body mass index (BMI). Data collected in a nationally representative sample of 400 young women largely (but not entirely) validate this causal framework. Natural models triggered repulsion in viewers with higher BMI, which hurt advertising performance. Body anxiety, however, was positively correlated with advertising performance, and did not mediate any effect of natural models.     

Coordinated Effects in the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines

Recent research has highlighted the quantitative contribution to merger analysis from extending unilateral effects models to understand the payoffs to future potential coordinated effects. Some of the emphasis of this research appears to have made its way into the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines. In this paper, we demonstrate the quantification of coordinated effects in an oligopoly and procurement model, and we show that screens that are based on upward pricing pressure are not adequate in mergers where coordinated effects are a potential concern.     

Cournot equilibrium without apology: Existence and the Cournot inverse demand function

In a multi-commodity framework with absence of wealth effects, we prove the existence of equilibrium for Cournot oligopoly, and that the concept is completely non-ambiguous. We also obtain a uniquely defined endogenous inverse demand function, depending only on the competitive sector.     

Investment and technological choice in a right-to-manage model

We analyze the interactions between investment and local wage bargaining in a putty-clay model where the investment decision commits the firm to a particular capital intensity. This technological precommitment is used strategically in order to manipulate the bargaining outcome. We show that this strategic behavior induces a nonmonotonic relationship between the capital and labor demands of the firm and most of its environmental parameters (e.g., the bargaining power of the union, its minimum wage requirement, the capital cost). The results we obtain in our putty-clay framework thus contradict several conclusions of the standard literature on wage bargaining and investment.     

Tax penalties on fluctuating incomes: estimates from longitudinal data

Progressive personal income taxes can cause individuals with fluctuating incomes to pay more taxes over time than individuals with constant incomes of the same average value. The implicit tax penalty violates principles of equity and may harm efficiency by discouraging risk-taking activities, such as entrepreneurship. This paper uses longitudinal data to estimate the tax penalties in six panels of Canadian data from 1993 to 2010. The effects of various income averaging policies for mitigating tax penalties are then examined.     

A live experiment on approval voting

This paper presents a large-scale experiment on the Approval Voting rule that took place during the 2002 French presidential election. We describe the experiment and its main results. The findings are as follows: (i) Such an experiment is feasible, and very well accepted by voters. (ii) The principle of approval voting is easily understood and accepted. (iii) Within the observed political context, compared to the official first-round vote, approval voting modifies the overall ranking of candidates. (iv) The candidates Le Pen and Chirac, more than the others, were able to convert approval votes into official first-round votes. JEL Classification C93, D70, D72     

The decentralization of credit: A selected summary of the Mayoux report

The Mayoux Report is the official report of a Committee of Inquiry headed by Jacques Mayoux that examined problems of the local and regional financial opportunities of small and medium-sized firms. This note, written by two of the aides to Mr. Mayoux in the preparation of the report, provides a summary of the major findings and suggestions of the Committee regarding banking reform. The principal recommendations include the simplification and decentralization of the granting of credit in France and continued steps toward the balancing of the rules and conditions governing lending and deposit collection among the various French financial institutions. It appeared to the Committee that the compartmentalization of French financial institutions due to the special rules under which specific institutions are permitted to operate was the major obstacle preventing better distributions of credit in France.     

A unified approach to ruin probabilities with delays for spectrally negative Lévy processes

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we unify two popular approaches for the definition of actuarial ruin with implementation delays, also known as Parisian ruin. Our new definition of ruin includes both deterministic delays and exponentially distributed delays: ruin is declared the first time an excursion in the red zone lasts longer than an implementation delay with a deterministic and a stochastic component. For this Parisian ruin with mixed delays, we identify the joint distribution of the time of ruin and the deficit at ruin, therefore providing generalizations of many results previously obtained, such as in Baurdoux et al. (2016) and Loeffen et al. (in press) for the case of an exponential delay and that of a deterministic delay, respectively.