Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors

This paper empirically assesses co-movements in emerging market bond returns and disentangles the roles of external and domestic factors during episodes of heightened market volatility. The conceptual framework, set in the context of asset allocation, allows us to describe the channels through which shocks originating in a particular emerging or mature market are transmitted across countries and markets. We show that a simple measure of cross-country correlations, when presented together with the more commonly used average correlation coefficient, can be more informative during episodes of heightened market volatility. Data for the period 1997–2008 are analysed for evidence of true contagion and common external shocks.     

Do regional economies converge?

Current interest in the new economic growth theory, linked with the development of new, innovative methods of measurement, has resurrected interest in spatial economic convergence. The primary objective of this paper is to examine the extent that regional economies seem to be converging or diverging. It explores the expanding theoretical literature in the field and examines the growing body of empirical evidence that has emerged in recent years not only in the U.S. but also internationally. The paper is retrospective but also embraces new findings relating to the United Kingdom and the U.S., putting particular emphasis on long- and short-term indicators of economic convergence.     

The emergence of Third World multinationals: Indian joint ventures overseas

The more industrialized LDCs are emerging increasingly as exporters of capital (or of technology in several forms). This paper draws on the recent experience of Indian MNCs to reexamine the factors which give rise to Third World multinationals. The author summarizes the current state of research in the analysis of LDCs MNCs, drawing upon specific MNC literature and other related literature on trade and technology. He deals with the evidence on Indian capital exports, placing it in the broader context of technology exports, discussing some examples of interest and drawing comparisons with foreign investment by some other LDCs. He assesses the Indian experience, using the distinctions drawn by Dunning's ‘eclectic’ theory but concentrating on the processes of technical change that underline the growth of its MNCs. The final section draws some tentative conclusions.     

Land-use changes, forest/soil conditions and carbon sequestration dynamics: A bio-economic model at watershed level in Nepal

A dynamic bio-economic model has been used at watershed level in Nepal to analyze the land-use changes, forest and soil conditions and their resultant impacts on carbon (C) sequestration. Planning horizon of the model extends over a period of 25 years. The objective function is maximization of the sum of discounted net income flows from agriculture, livestock and forestry productions; imputed value of leisure and labour hiring out activities subject to annual constraints on land, labour and capital availability along with the fulfilment of minimum cash and consumption requirements. The seven scenarios analyzed by the model are: business as usual (BAU), reduction in population growth rate from 2 to 1.5% p.a., increased prices of major crops by 10 and 20%, reduction in emigration of active labour force from the watershed from the current rate of 20–15 and 10%, and increase in discount rate from 5 to 10%. The results indicate that reduced labour emigration rates and increase in the prices of major crops lead to expansion of cultivated area and shift from one land use to the others. Land clearing becomes more severe with decline in labour emigration rate. Up to 10% increase in the prices of agricultural crops does not have noticeable effect on total land clearing. Increase in discount rate leads to less land clearing, more biomass harvesting and higher net C sequestration as compared to the BAU scenario. Assuming a C price of 10 USD per MgC and 5% discount rate, the net present value of C sequestration for the first 25 years is estimated at 1.83 mill USD in the BAU scenario, varying from 0.16 mill USD to 2.26 mill USD, as respectively the lowest and highest values for the seven scenarios analysed. A reduction in population growth and maintenance of current rate of off-farm employment are suggested for slowing down the expansion of cultivated land area, and thereby reducing the forest/soil degradation and C emissions. This in turn would enhance the income potential from C sequestration.     

Third world multinationals : The characteristics of Indian firms investing abroad

This paper uses models of dichotomous choice to distinguish the characteristics of Indian firms that invest overseas from those that do not. It seeks to shed light on the motivations underlying foreign investment by Indian firms and on the nature of the perceived competitive advantage of these firms in their overseas operations.     

Appropriate pharmaceutical policies in developing countries

There are several peculiar features of the pharmaceutical industry which invite government intervention in developed as well as developing countries. In poor countries in particular, the pressure to economise on drug purchases leads to policies to bypass the system of innovation and marketing which has grown in the rich countries: thus, the large drug multinationals are subjected to a large battery of controls. The main factors which lead poor countries to permit MNCs are their superior operational efficiency and their transfer of technology. A more liberal set of policies is advocated to promote growth and innovation.     

中国吸引外资对东南亚国家吸引外资影响的实证研究

中国吸引外资的浪潮引起了人们普遍的忧虑,中国吸引外资是否会导致流入东南亚国家的外资逐渐减少。本文在假定外资的供应是有弹性的前提下,利用对外投资区位决定因素的模型和固定效应分析方法来检验中国吸引外资与东南亚经济体吸引外资间的关系。结果显示在1986年至2001年间,中国吸引外资的增长实际上提高了邻国经济吸引外资的能力,而不是排挤了邻国外资的流入。