Fiscal federalism in rentier regions: Evidence from Russia

When does sub-national fiscal autonomy prompt regional growth and recovery and, under what conditions, does it have adverse effects? We argue that unearned income streams, particularly in the form of revenues from natural resource production or from budgetary transfers from the central government, transform regions dependent on these income sources into rentier regions. Governments in these regions can use local control over revenues and expenditures to shelter certain firms, i.e., natural resource producers or loss-making enterprises, from market forces. Using fiscal data from 80 Russian regions from 1996 to 1999, we test this hypothesis in both cross-sectional and panel specifications. Our results indicate that tax retention, which is a proxy for fiscal autonomy, has had a positive effect on regional reform and investment since the break-up of the Soviet Union. However, we also find that this effect decreases as rentable income streams to regions increase. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 814–834.     

An Investigation of the Informational Role of Short Interest in the Nasdaq Market

This paper examines the relationship between the level of short interest and stock returns in the Nasdaq market from June 1988 through December 1994. We find that heavily shorted firms experience significant negative abnormal returns ranging from −0.76 to −1.13 percent per month after controlling for the market, size, book–to–market, and momentum factors. These negative returns increase with the level of short interest, indicating that a higher level of short interest is a stronger bearish signal. We find that heavily shorted firms are more likely to be delisted compared to their size, book–to–market, and momentum matched control firms.     

The Effects of Leader Succession and Prior Leader Experience on Postsuccession Organizational Performance

In this article we strive to reconcile equivocal findings about the effects of top leader succession and prior leadership experience on postsuccession organizational performance. In doing so, we draw on insights from theories of human capital, learning, and asymmetric information to better understand the conditions under which leaders increase or decrease postsuccession performance. Employing a sample of 119 newly appointed leaders in the English Premier League (1996–2010), we find the following results. First, relating to the succession event, outside leaders that directly move between leadership positions are associated with higher postsuccession performance while the departure of a prior leader to a leadership position in another organization has a negative effect on postsuccession performance. Second, relating to prior leadership experience, leaders with domestic top leader experience are associated with lower postsuccession performance, while leaders with foreign top leader experience are associated with higher postsuccession performance. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Politics of Russian Enterprise Reform: Insiders, Local Governments, and the Obstacles to Restructuring

Russia and other countries in the Commonwealth of IndependentStates that have implemented voucher privatization programshave to account for the puzzling behavior of insiders—manager-owners—who,in stripping assets from the firms they own, appear to be stealingfrom one pocket to fill the other. This article suggests thatasset stripping and the absence of restructuring result frominteractions between insiders and subnational governments ina particular property rights regime, in which the ability torealize value is limited by uncertainty and illiquidity. Asthe central institutions that govern the Russian economy haveceded their powers to the provinces, regional and local governmentshave imposed a variety of distortions on enterprises to protectlocal employment. To disentangle these vicious circles of control, this articlesconsiders three sets of institutional changes:; adjustmentsto the system of fiscal federalism by which subnational governmentswould be allowed to retain tax revenues generated locally; legalimprovements in the protection of property rights; and the provisionof mechanisms for restructuring and ownership transformationin insider-dominated firms. The aim of these reforms would beto change the incentives that local governments, owners, andinvestors face; to convince subnational governments that a moresustainable way of protecting employment lies in protectinglocal investment; to raise the cost of theft and corruptionby insiders and local officials; and to allow investors to acquirecontrolling stakes in viable firms.      

Entrepreneurship,economic development and institutions

This paper is an introduction to the special issue from the 3rd Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Research Conference held in Washington, D.C., in 2008. The paper has three objectives. First, to discuss the importance of the three stages of economic development, the factor-driven stage, the efficiency-driven stage and the innovation-driven stage. Second, to examine the empirical evidence on the relationship between stages of economic development and entrepreneurship. Third, to present a summary of the papers in the context of the theory.

On the County-Level Credit Outcome Beta

In their pioneering work, Musto and Souleles (Journal of Monetary Economics 53(1):59–84, 2006) apply portfolio theory to consumer lending. This paper extends their work by analyzing three county-level credit outcome betas. We use the probability of default calibrated from the credit score, the actual default rate, and the actual bankruptcy rate to compute ‘score’, ‘default’, and ‘bankruptcy’ betas for each U.S. county. The correlation between default and bankruptcy betas is quite low. Counties in states in which a borrower has a right to take action against aggressive collection practices tend to have higher default betas but lower bankruptcy betas. These findings suggest the possibility of an ‘informal bankruptcy’ option for consumers. The effects of county score, default, and bankruptcy betas on the county average revolving credit line per borrower are negative. For small lenders that do not have access to the detailed historical credit files on individual consumers, the county-level beta approach of this paper might be helpful for diversifying portfolios geographically and managing risk on existing accounts.     

An endogenous growth cycle with vintage capital

This paper extends Solow's vintage capital model by (a) deriving profits as a function of investments, and (b) adding an investment financing equation in terms of profits. It is shown that these extensions lead to a completely endogenous growth model. The dynamic system yields an equilibrium which is a centre and hence the economy cycles perpetually around the equilibrium point, never reaching it.     

Constitutionalism and credibility in reforming economies1

There has been relatively little investigation of the effect of constitutional transformations on the economic transition in post‐communist countries. We develop a simple signalling model in which constitutionalism – a commitment to limit political power and provide judicial defence of basic rights – reinforces the credibility of pro‐market candidates’ electoral promises and boosts public support for economic reforms. These findings are tested using opinion poll data on public support for reform in Central and Eastern Europe, and in the former Soviet Union, in the 1990s. In a two‐stage procedure we show that public support for market reforms is higher in countries where incumbents have taken deliberate steps to increase political accountability and judicial independence. Public support also spurs actual economic reform.