Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade

Empirica - Previous studies that have investigated the J-curve phenomenon between the UK and its largest trading partner from the European Union (EU), Germany, used aggregate bilateral trade data...     

Bilateral Trade Balances of Malaysia with Her 11 Largest Trading Partners: New Evidence from Asymmetry Cointegration

Research on the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance is now moving in a new direction, by investigating whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects. The approach that relies upon separating depreciations from appreciations introduces nonlinearity into the adjustment process and relies upon the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. [2014. Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework, in: R. Sickels and W. Horrace (Eds), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281–314 (Springer)]. When we applied this new method to the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with each of her 11 largest partners, we found adjustment asymmetry in all models, short-run impact asymmetry effects and long-run asymmetry effects in the trade balance models between Malaysia and Asian countries.     

Panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test and PPP in Africa

This study revisits purchasing power parity (PPP) theory for 20 African countries using panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Omay (2014), through the sequential panel selection method of Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009). While standard panel unit root tests fail to support the PPP, the empirical results from panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test do support the PPP. However, additional tests reveal that support in all 20 African countries is mostly due to stationarity of the real effective exchange rates of Ghana and Rwanda where the adjustment process towards equilibrium is nonlinear and asymmetric.     

Shannon information in record data

In this article we present results on the Shannon information (SI) contained in upper (lower) record values and associated record times in a sequence of i.i.d continuous variables. We then establish an interesting relationship between the SI content of a random sample of fixed size, and the SI in the data consisting of sequential maxima. We also consider the information contained in the record data from an inverse sampling plan (ISP).     

Export growth and output growth: An application of bounds testing approach

The short-run and the long-run relationship between export growth and economic growth has received a great deal of attention in the literature. Cointegration techniques that have been employed by previous researchers require that the variables to be non-stationary but their linear combination to be stationary. When variables are not integrated of the same order, they are excluded from analysis. This needs not to be the case with the introduction of the bounds testing approach. Indeed, the approach does not require pre-unit-root testing. This paper applies this new method to export and output data from 44 developing countries and provides support for the export-led growth hypothesis in 60% of the countries.     

On the relationship between the value of the mark and German production

This study employs Johansen's cointegration technique to determine the long-run relationship between exchange value of the DM and German production. It is shown that depreciation of the DM has a long-run expansionary impact on German production. This conclusion is based on a new method of selecting the order of VAR and the appropriate cointegrating vector simultaneously.     

Nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance

Indexes of real and nominal effective exchange rates that are published by the IMF, are mostly for industrial countries. None of the Middle Eastern countries have received any attention on this regard. This paper tries to close the gap by constructing such indexes for 11 middle eastern countries over 1971(I)–1994(IV) period. As an application, long-run response of their trade balance to devaluation is also investigated.     

ARDL Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis

The productivity bias hypothesis states that a relatively more productive country should experience a real appreciation of its currency. Most studies in the literature that have tested the hypothesis have employed cross‐sectional data. Only a few studies have used time‐series data and they have tested the hypothesis for only a small number of countries. In this paper the authors test the hypothesis by using time‐series data over the 1960–90 period for a sample of 44 countries and with a relatively new method of cointegration known as the ARDL approach. For most countries there is strong evidence supporting the hypothesis.     

THE J CURVE: CHINA VERSUS HER TRADING PARTNERS

The short‐run effects of currency depreciation are said to be different from its long‐run effects. In the short run, the trade balance deteriorates and improvement comes after some time; hence, the J‐curve phenomenon. Previous studies that tested the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in China employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. Indeed, most of them concluded that real depreciation has no long‐run impact on the Chinese trade balance. In this paper, we disaggregate the data by country and using recent advances in time series modelling estimate a trade balance model between China and her 13 major trading partners. We show that real depreciation of the Chinese currency has a favourable impact on her trade balance with a few partners, especially the USA. Not much support is found for the J‐curve hypothesis.