The government revenue and government expenditure nexus: empirical evidence from nine Asian countries

The nexus between government revenue and government expenditure has been an important topic in public economics. In this paper, we investigate evidence for cointegration and causality between government revenue and government expenditure for nine Asian countries. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and the conventional F-test to examine Granger causality. Our empirical results suggest that for three out of the nine countries government revenue and government expenditure are cointegrated. Our results on the direction of causation are mixed: (a) for Indonesia, Singapore, Sri Lanka in the short-run and for Nepal in both the short- and long-run we find support for the tax-and-spend hypothesis; (b) Indonesia and Sri Lanka are in conformity with the spend-and-tax hypothesis in the long-run; and (c) for other countries there is evidence of neutrality.     

Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds

This article characterizes the systematic risk exposures ofhedge funds using buy-and-hold and option-based strategies.Our results show that a large number of equity-oriented hedgefund strategies exhibit payoffs resembling a short positionin a put option on the market index and therefore bear significantleft-tail risk, risk that is ignored by the commonly used mean-varianceframework. Using a mean-conditional value-at-risk framework,we demonstrate the extent to which the mean-variance frameworkunderestimates the tail risk. Finally, working with the systematicrisk exposures of hedge funds, we show that their recent performanceappears significantly better than their long-run performance.     

Simultaneous determination of product attributes and prices, and production processes in product-line design

Global competition, rapid changes in technology, and market fragmentation have resulted in shorter product life cycles. In order to remain viable, it is increasingly important for firms to introduce new products frequently. Product design is a complex process that involves coordination of activities among several functional disciplines within the company as well as the customers and the suppliers. Traditionally, the information flow among the various product development stages has been sequential. However, there is increasing evidence to suggest that an integrated approach that considers several stages simultaneously may be superior.This paper provides a decision support tool for implementing such an integrated approach. On the basis of given customer preferences, the paper presents a model for determining the number of new products to be introduced, the exact specifications of these products, and the production processes for efficiently delivering these specifications. These decisions are made in an integrated manner by simultaneously considering the interaction among the various choice variables. A decomposition-based solution procedure is developed that iterates between the product design and process selection decisions while maintaining an effective link between them.In addition to understanding the economic value of adopting the integrated approach to product design, the paper discusses how the proposed model can be used effectively to perform sensitivity analysis with respect to some of the important decision variables.     

Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?

Inter-state disparity has been a perennial feature of Indian agriculture. The study probes if per capita income from agriculture has converged across states and finds evidence in favour of beta convergence. Spatial econometric techniques used indicate significant spatial dependence in agricultural growth. Infrastructure like roads, irrigation, and electricity, diversification in cropping pattern and quality of human capital are found to aid in growth. However, excessive rainfall tends to decrease growth rate in India. The spill-over across states are found to be primarily driven by roads, irrigation and rural literacy and we also find significant impact of spatial income growth providing evidence in favour of agglomeration effects. Hence, investments in human capital, physical infrastructure specially water management and incentives towards growing crops which yield higher returns will aid agriculture growth in India.

     

Capacity Constraints and Hedge Fund Strategy Returns

Hedge funds have generated significant absolute returns (alpha) in the decade between 1995 and 2004. However, the level of alpha has declined substantially over this period. We investigate whether capacity constraints at the level of hedge fund strategies have been responsible for this decline. For four out of eight hedge fund strategies, capital inflows have statistically preceded negative movements in alpha, consistent with this hypothesis. We also find evidence that hedge fund fees have increased over the same period. Our results provide support for the Berk and Green (2004) rational model of active portfolio management.     

Do Inventories Matter in Dealership Markets? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

Using London Stock Exchange data, we test the central implication of the canonical model of Ho and Stoll (1983) that relative inventory differences determine dealer behavior. We find that relative inventories explain which dealers obtain large trades and show that movements between best ask, best bid, and straddle are highly correlated with both standardized and relative inventory changes. We show that the mean reversion in inventories is highly nonlinear and increasing in inventory levels. We show that a key determinant of variations in interdealer trading is inventories and that interdealer trading plays an important role in managing large inventory positions.     

Do US macroeconomic conditions affect Asian stock markets?

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of US macroeconomic conditions—namely, exchange rate and short-term interest rate—on the stock markets of seven Asian countries (China, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea). We use daily data for the period 2000–2010. We divide the sample into a pre-crisis period (pre-August 2007) and a crisis period (post-August 2007). We find that, in the short-run, the interest rate has a statistically insignificant effect on returns for all countries, except for the Philippines in the crisis period. On the other hand, except for China, regardless of the crisis, depreciation has a statistically significant and negative effect on returns. When the long-run relationship among the variables is considered, for five of the seven countries (India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand), while there is cointegration in the pre-crisis period, in the crisis period there is no such relationship, implying that the financial crisis has actually weakened the link between stock prices and economic fundamentals.     

Psychological Oil Price Barrier and Firm Returns

In this paper, we investigate the psychological barrier effect induced by the oil price on firm returns when the oil price reaches US$100 or more per barrel. We find evidence of the negative effect of the US$100 oil price barrier for: (a) the entire sample of 1559 firms listed on the American stock exchanges; (b) both foreign and domestic firms, with domestic firms significantly more affected; (c) the 10 different sizes of firms, with the smaller firms less affected compared to the larger firms; and (d) 17 sectors of firms, with firms in the utilities, mining, and administration sectors being the least affected.     

TESTING CONVERGENCE OF FIJI'S TOURISM MARKETS

Abstract.   The convergence hypothesis for tourism markets is based on the tenet that when tourism markets are converging the difference between total international visitor arrivals to a country and international visitor arrivals from a particular country will be stationary. We argue that if this is true, then convergence can also be tested through examining whether total visitor arrivals and visitor arrivals from a particular market are cointegrated. We test the convergence hypothesis by examining visitor arrivals to Fiji from eight tourist source markets, using both unit root and cointegration tests. We find strong statistical evidence that Fiji's tourism markets converge.     

Understanding the inflation–output nexus for China

In this article we examine several hypotheses relating to output and inflation dynamics in China. The hypotheses tests are based on the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model of Nelson [Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset return: A new approach, Econometrica, 59, 347–370]. Our findings suggest that Chinese output–inflation behaviour is consistent with the hypothesis that increased inflation uncertainty lowers average inflation; the hypothesis that inflation volatility reduces economic growth and the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases economic growth. However, we find no support for the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases the average inflation rate.