Lessons From Italy: A Good Pension System Needs an Effective Broader Social Policy Framework

Intereconomics - Italy, which is sometimes considered a laggard in terms of social and economic reforms, can boast a pension system that is, by and large, functioning sufficiently well in terms of...     

Social Security and Old Age Unemployment Risk with Efficient Wage Bargaining

I analyze a life‐cycle economy with old age productivity risk where wages, employment, and severance payments are set through efficient bargaining between risk averse unions and risk neutral firms. Allocations with limited union membership are second‐best inefficient as they generate too little labor supply in young age, too much consumption before retirement, too little employment of older workers (early retirement), and too little insurance against old age unemployment. Providing public transfers to early retirees (disability benefits or early pensions) might help to increase the degree of risk sharing at the cost of lower old age employment. Depending on whether absolute risk aversion is increasing or decreasing in consumption, these policies might or might not produce efficiency gains at equilibrium.     

Reinforced urn processes for credit risk models

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model to estimate rating migration matrices and default probabilities using the reinforced urn processes (RUP) introduced in Muliere et al. (2000). The estimated default probability becomes our prior information in a parametric model for the prediction of the number of bankruptcies, with the only assumption of exchangeability within rating classes. The Polya urn construction of the transition matrix justifies a Beta distributed de Finetti measure. Dependence among the processes is introduced through the dependence among the default probabilities, with the Bivariate Beta Distribution proposed in Olkin and Liu (2003) and its multivariate generalization.     

Assessment of meaningful change in routine outcome measurement (ROM) with a combination of a longitudinal and a ‘classify and count’ approach

To assess significant changes of health status in people receiving health care, distribution-based and anchor-based methods have been proposed. However, there is no real consensus on what method is the best for evaluating clinically meaningful change. To maximize the internal and external validity of outcome assessment, we propose combining two approaches as recommended by recent practical guidelines on this field. Specifically, we suggest applying longitudinal hierarchical linear models on subgroups of patients showing reliable change and reliable and clinically significant change. This combined approach improved the model’s ability (1) to quantify the magnitude of changes to be reliable and clinically meaningful and (2) to select significant predictors of changes. An empirical application on a prevalence sample of Italian outpatients attending four community mental health services was done. A cross-sectional model and three longitudinal models were applied on the entire study sample and reliable and clinically meaningful change subsamples to investigate the magnitude of change and the predictive effect on outcomes of clinical, socio-demographic and process variables on different patients’ subgroups. Differences were found suggesting that both the statistical method and the sample used to calculate individual changes affect the estimates. The main conclusion is that ignoring the longitudinal data structure or including patients with unreliable change at the follow-up might result in misleading inferences that can alter the real magnitude of changes and the contributions of predictors. The approach proposed provides robust feedback to clinicians on clinically significant change and can be recommended in outcome studies and research.     

Net Neutrality in Europe: Desperately seeking a market failure

Net Neutrality has become the focus of attention in the regulatory debate on the Internet. This article attempts to strip down the debate to its bare essential. It identifies two main types of Net Neutrality obligations that have been put forward and assesses what type of potential concerns they may be designed to address. It concludes that while some of these concerns may be important it remains doubtful (at least in Europe) that an ex ante per se rule, such as those proposed under the Net Neutrality term, is the best way to address them.     

Resources, innovation and growth in the global economy

The relative performance of open economies is analyzed in an endogenous growth model with asymmetric trade. A resource-rich country trades resource-based intermediates for final goods produced by a resource-poor economy. The effects of an increase in the resource endowment depend on the elasticity of substitution between resources and labor in intermediates' production. Under substitution (complementarity), the resource boom generates higher (lower) income, lower (higher) employment in the primary sector and faster (slower) growth in the resource-rich economy. In the resource-poor economy, the shock induces a higher (lower) relative wage and positive (negative) growth effects that are exclusively due to trade.     

External Imbalances and Fiscal Fragility in the Euro Area

This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that countries in the South of the Eurozone were fiscally irresponsible and failed to implement pro-competitive supply side policies. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts cast doubt on the explanation based on the first thesis alone. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. However, differences in growth and competitiveness and capital flows between North and South have assumed a much more dominant role since the onset of the global crisis.     

Factor-eliminating technical change

Perpetual growth requires offsetting diminishing returns to reproducible factors of production. In this article we present a theory of factor elimination. For simplicity and clarity, there is no augmentation of non-reproducible factors, thus excluding the standard engine of growth. By spending resources on R&D, agents learn to change the exponents of a Cobb–Douglas production function. We obtain the economy's balanced growth path and complete transition dynamics. The theory provides a mechanism for the transition from an initial technology incapable of supporting perpetual growth to one with constant returns to reproducible factors that supports it.     

Market makers as information providers: The natural experiment of STAR

Market makers are financial intermediaries who are supposed to provide additional liquidity, but do not have any information-related obligation. This paper studies the unique case of the Italian Stock Exchange, where market makers are also obliged to facilitate information disclosure about the firms they cover. We focus on a group of small/medium capitalization stocks (STAR) that are assigned a designated market maker (DMM) starting from 2001. We show that their liquidity requirements are not binding during the sample periods and that the main impact of DMMs' introduction is due to their obligations on information provision. We find that DMMs' activity as information providers reduces spread and price volatility, the probability of informed trading (PIN), and the adverse selection component of the spread. An event study provides evidence that the information released through DMMs is perceived as useful by market participants.