Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017

This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008–2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4–2017.4 period are within what one would expect historically. Productivity and labor force participation are endogenous variables in the model, and so their behaviors in this period are a consequence of the slow growth rather than a cause.     

Too Good to be True? An Analysis of the Options Market's Reactions to Earnings Releases

Using option implied risk neutral return distributions before and after earnings announcements, we study the option market's reaction to extreme events over earnings announcements. While earnings announcements generally reduce short‐term uncertainty about the stock price, very good news does not reduce uncertainty and slightly bad news actually increases uncertainty. We also find that left tail probabilities decrease over earnings releases while right tail probabilities increase. We interpret these findings as evidence of maintained investor expectations that very good news is generally not released during earnings announcements, combined with skepticism in the form of lingering uncertainty at the release of such very good news.     

The Living Wage – Policy And Practice

A recent development in addressing the longstanding problem of low pay in the United Kingdom has been the emergence of a social campaign for a ‘living wage’. Using a case study approach this article explores an employer's decision to pay the living wage that, in turn, provided both challenges and opportunities for the unions in their dealings with contractors.     

Organic Food at the Point of Purchase: Understanding Inconsistency in Consumer Choice Patterns

The organic food category, while still small in terms of world food production, has continued to grow in many markets in the developed world. This article focuses on understanding the barriers and facilitators to purchasing organic food at the final hurdle: the point of purchase (POP). A qualitative study has identified seven factors that influence buyer behavior at the POP, and these are consumer intention to purchase organic food when entering the retail outlet; habit; availability; false assumptions; visibility and access of organic food; visual and olfactory cues; and price. These can often be the final hurdle to consumers choosing (or not) organic food at the POP.     

Injury count model for quantification of risk of occupational injury

Reduction of risk of occupational injuries is one of the most challenging problems faced by industry. Assessing and comparing risks involved in different jobs is one of the important steps towards reducing injury risk. In this study, a comprehensive scheme is given for assessing and comparing injury risks with the development of injury count model, injury risk model and derived statistics. The hazards present in a work system and the nature of the job carried out by workers are perceived as important drivers of injury potential of a work system. A loglinear model is used to quantify injury counts and the event-tree approach with joint, marginal and conditional probabilities is used to quantify injury risk. A case study was carried out in an underground coal mine. Finally a number of indices are proposed for the case study mine to capture risk of injury in different jobs. The findings of this study will help in designing injury intervention strategies for the mine studied. The job-wise risk profiles will be used to prioritise the jobs for redesign. The absolute indices can be applied for benchmarking job-wise risks and the relative indices can be used for comparing job-wise risks across work systems.     

Is UK Vice Chancellor Pay Justified by University Performance?

The pay of university managers (vice chancellors, VCs) in the UK has risen sharply in recent years. This paper considers the extent to which VC pay awards are related to university performance measures based around institution mission and financial probity using an individual fixed effects strategy based on data covering academic years 1998–99 to 2008–09. In contrast to earlier studies on this theme, we find evidence that VCs are rewarded for observable mission‐based performance measures. Specifically, our results suggest that success in widening participation for students from comprehensive schools and those from areas with low university participation exerts a positive effect on VCs' pay. Securing income flows from university funding council grants also impacts positively on their remuneration. However, even after controlling for a rich array of observable and unobservable factors, there have been sizeable increases in real pay in recent years that cannot be readily explained.     

20年来在维修与可靠性工程专业推行校外读研的经验

大部分从事维修与可靠性专业的人员在其工作期间都受过短期课目培训。不过，许多人认为，具有评定意义的正规学习对他们的工作和所在公司来说，会在那些具有实用价值的技能和知识方面得到进一步提升。从20世纪80年代中期开始，澳大利亚莫纳什大学（Monash University）那些不能到校内上课的工程师们，开设了维修管理专业的研究生课程。后来又开设了可靠性工程的课程，1998年这两个课程合并成为了硕士学位课程。现在全世界已有几百名学生从这个专业毕业。随着在网络增强式教学方面的进展，这个项目有了重大的发展，2006年学习这个课程的学生已经遍及五大洲19个国家。丈中介绍这个课程的发展和演变以及一些经验教训，同时也列举出了毕业生们从中所能得到若干益处。     

Welfare Effect of Mergers and Multilateral Trade Liberalization

In a two‐country model where firms behave à la Cournot, we show that trade liberalization increases (decreases) the social desirability of those mergers that generate sufficiently large (small) reductions in marginal cost. There exists a range of intermediate levels of marginal cost savings such that marginal tariff reductions increase (decrease) the desirability of merger at sufficiently low (high) tariff levels. Moreover, in the neighborhood of free trade, we show that if trade liberalization increases the profitability of a merger, it necessarily also increases its desirability.