Socio-demographics,political attitudes and informal sector employment: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between informal sector employment and micro-level socio-demographic characteristics, political acts and attitudes, and individual norms. Using self-reported individual micro-level data from the World Values Survey for seven developing countries (China, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Yemen), our cross-country regressions and principal component analysis reveal that socio-demographic characteristics of individuals are strong predictors of their informal sector employment. Our estimations further document that individual preferences for an economically strong, interventionist and egalitarian state and confidence in state and political institutions are positively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment, whereas variables associated with confidence in free market institutions and support for competition are negatively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment. We also show that individuals who participate either actively or inactively in peaceful and lawful political processes are significantly less likely to work in the informal sector. Finally, we document that individual norms, such as religiosity and tax morale, are negatively correlated with informal sector employment. Throughout our analysis, instead of having to rely on ad-hoc informality categorizations of third parties, we base our measurement of informal sector employment directly on the self-evaluation of individuals, who have the best information on the degree of their informality.     

Risk- and ambiguity-averse portfolio optimization with quasiconcave utility functionals

Motivated by recent axiomatic developments, we study the risk- and ambiguity-averse investment problem where trading takes place in continuous time over a fixed finite horizon and terminal payoffs are evaluated according to criteria defined in terms of quasiconcave utility functionals. We extend to the present setting certain existence and duality results established for so-called variational preferences by Schied (Finance Stoch. 11:107–129, 2007). The results are proved by building on existing results for the classical utility maximization problem, combined with a careful analysis of the involved quasiconvex and semicontinuous functions.     

Economic diversification of a single-asset tourism city: evidence from Antalya†

It is often argued that the growth of single-asset tourism places is fragile because it is vulnerable to economic fluctuations and is based on specialization and localization economies that lead to an ever stronger lock-in process of path-dependent urban economic development and, in the end, slow growth. In this paper, it is doubted whether a high urban tourism growth implies an ever stronger specialization and an ever stronger lock-in. This paper shows that the growth of tourism stimulates the growth of related and unrelated industries and generates a diversification of the economy, even though some other sectors are crowded out. Antalya (Turkey) is selected as a case-study area not only because its economy is dominated by tourism (it is a good example of a single-asset tourism city), but also because its economy shows a tendency to economic diversification at the sectoral level. This diversification tendency is shown by means of a shift-share analysis and Herfindahl indexes.     

The evolution of the monetary transmission channels in Turkey: evidence from a TVP-VAR model

This article investigates the evolution of the monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey for the period from January 1986 to December 2016. To this aim, the impacts of monetary variables on the prices and economic activity are investigated with a time-varying vector autoregressive model based on. The evidences from the time-varying responses indicate that the adoption of inflation targeting policy has markedly affected the functioning of transmission channels. The results also suggest that local and global financial crises may magnify the impact of monetary policy shocks on the overall economy.     

Does data matter? Statewide longitudinal data systems and student performance in the U.S.

Although many industries have benefited from advances in data-driven technology, education is making small steps in capitalizing on the huge potential of data systems. Since 2005, the U.S. Federal Government has been making large grants to help states build statewide longitudinal data systems (SLDS) with the goal of improving programme and teacher evaluation and engage in data-driven decision-making. We analyse whether the introduction of SLDSs improved student performance, measured using test scores for math and reading tests for 4th and 8th graders, as well as high school graduation rates. We find no effects of SLDSs on student performance up to 10 years from implementation. However, we find suggestive evidence that these systems may have long-run effects, emphasizing the long-run nature of educational data collection and policy analysis.     

Bayesian Inference in Spatial Sample Selection Models

In this study, we consider Bayesian methods for the estimation of a sample selection model with spatially correlated disturbance terms. We design a set of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on the method of data augmentation. The natural parameterization for the covariance structure of our model involves an unidentified parameter that complicates posterior analysis. The unidentified parameter – the variance of the disturbance term in the selection equation – is handled in different ways in these algorithms to achieve identification for other parameters. The Bayesian estimator based on these algorithms can account for the selection bias and the full covariance structure implied by the spatial correlation. We illustrate the implementation of these algorithms through a simulation study and an empirical application.     

Heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators for spatial autoregressive models

In the presence of heteroskedasticity, conventional test statistics based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator lead to incorrect inference results for the linear regression model. Given that heteroskedasticity is common in cross-sectional data, the test statistics based on various forms of heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrices (HCCMs) have been developed in the literature. In contrast to the standard linear regression model, heteroskedasticity is a more serious problem for spatial econometric models, generally causing inconsistent extremum estimators of model coefficients. This paper investigates the finite sample properties of the heteroskedasticity-robust generalized method of moments estimator (RGMME) for a spatial econometric model with an unknown form of heteroskedasticity. In particular, it develops various HCCM-type corrections to improve the finite sample properties of the RGMME and the conventional Wald test. The Monte Carlo results indicate that the HCCM-type corrections can produce more accurate results for inference on model parameters and the impact effects estimates in small samples.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Building,Marketing and Living in an Islamic Gated Community: Novel Configurations of Class and Religion in Istanbul

This article analyses the development and marketing of Islamic gated communities in Basaksehir, Istanbul. It demonstrates how a blueprint of public–private urban development was appropriated by middle‐class Islamists. The gated communities in Basaksehir—which, at the outset, were not explicitly religious—gradually became attractive to religious actors searching for enclosed urban enclaves where Islamic communities would be protected against perceived moral‐urban threats. While urban‐religious enclaves appear to bear similarities to pre‐modern Ottoman Islamic urban enclaves, the rise of contemporary Islamic gated communities should be understood in light of the recent coming to power of the Islamist Turkish government. In cooperation with this government, housing development agencies approached Islamic investors to find capital for their public–private housing projects. One of the results of this form of urban development is that, contrary to pre‐modern Ottoman Islamic urban enclaves, the Islamic gated communities are homogenous in terms of economic class, catering specifically to the Islamic middle classes. Moreover, people who invest in Basaksehir desire an urban‐religious lifestyle that differs from the ‘traditional' religious lifestyle experienced in ‘traditional' Islamic neighbourhoods. The specific urban‐religious configuration generates a new type of Islam that better fits middle‐class values and a middle‐class lifestyle.     

Information Technology Tools in New Product Development: The Impact of Complementary Resources*,†

Emergent research has examined the antecedents to using information technology (IT) in the new product development (NPD) process and the impact of IT on NPD performance. Based on the resource‐based view (RBV) of the firm, this study hypothesizes that particular resources create IT capabilities that significantly enhance NPD outcomes. More specifically, this research extends previous work by investigating whether three complementary resources, namely an executive champion for IT, global engagement, and organizational innovativeness, influence IT capabilities (IT use frequency and IT replacement frequency), which in turn affect NPD outcomes (NPD task proficiency and NPD performance). To test the conceptual model, survey data were collected from 220 NPD and IT managers in a variety of large Japanese firms. The results show that an executive champion for IT and global engagement are predictors of both IT tool use and replacement frequency while organizational innovativeness contributes only to IT tool replacement frequency. The results also indicate that both IT tool use and replacement frequency have a positive effect on NPD task proficiency, which improves NPD performance. This research contributes to the literature by adding understanding of the role of IT in NPD at the firm level in four ways. First, it examines particular organizational complementary resources and their relationship to IT capabilities. Second, it examines the RBV and IT in the context of NPD, an important business process. Third, it measures IT usage in a more granular fashion (i.e., IT tool use frequency and IT replacement frequency) rather than simply IT usage as a dichotomy. Finally, through testing the proposed model with data collected from Japanese firms, this study provides empirical evidence from an Asian country to answer the call for more NPD research to be conducted in countries other than North American and Western European contexts. The findings of the study also provide implications for managers. Importantly, they indicate that an executive level champion for IT is a key influencer in facilitating IT usage and replacement, and likely can help generate awareness of and support for greater IT investments so the firm can create IT capabilities for effective NPD.