Analyst information production and the timing of annual earnings forecasts

We investigate whether the reputation-herding theory or the tradeoff theory explains variation in the timing of individual analysts’ forecasts. Using forecast accuracy improvements, forecast boldness, and the price impact of forecasts as measures of forecast quality, we find that in the information discovery phase that precedes an earnings announcement, earlier forecasts have higher quality than later forecasts. We also find a similar pattern in the information analysis phase that begins with the earnings announcement date. Our findings suggest that consistent with the herding theory, analysts who are more capable participate early in discovering and analyzing information, and therefore earlier forecasts in the information discovery and analysis phases are of higher quality than later forecasts in that phase.     

Managerial risk-taking incentives and the systemic risk of financial institutions

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This paper examines whether the systemic risk of financial institutions is associated with the risk-taking incentives generated by executive...     

Testing the higher education-led growth hypothesis in a small island: an empirical investigation from a new version of the Solow growth model

This study employs a new version of the Solow Growth Model in order to investigate the higher education-led growth (HELG) hypothesis in the case of North Cyprus. Results reveal that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between real income growth of North Cyprus and its determinants, namely capital, labor, and the higher education sector. Results show that real income growth converges to its long-term equilibrium level by 10.9 %. Granger causality tests suggest undirectional causality from higher education growth to real income growth in North Cyprus. Therefore, the HELG hypothesis can be inferred for the Turkish Cypriot economy.     

Credit rationing, interest rates and capital accumulation

A simple endogenous growth model is developed to characterize credit rationing through the capital accumulation process. The model shows that credit rationing on investment loans decreases as capital accumulates and the enforcement cost decreases. We find that the evolution of the interest rate factor (lending interest rate/depositing interest rate) has a similar pattern to the credit rationing probability. However, simulations show that the evolution of the interest rate spread through the capital accumulation process depends on the degree of the enforcement cost. In the empirical part of the paper, we consider fifty-two countries, at different stages of development, over the period 1995–2005. We confirm the theoretical findings relative to the evolution of the interest rate spread and interest rate factor with capital accumulation. These results suggest that, for economies endowed with costly contract enforcement, the interest rate factor could be a better proxy of credit rationing than the interest rate spread.     

An optimization approach for brass casting blending problem under aletory and epistemic uncertainties

A critical process in brass casting is the determination of the materials and their quantities to be added into the blend. The reason of being critical is the uncertainty about metal percentages in scrap raw materials. In this paper, the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, which are modeled by using probability and possibility theory, respectively, have been handled simultaneously in a blending optimization problem for brass casting and a solution approach that transforms the possibilistic uncertainties into probabilistic ones is proposed. A numerical example is performed by the data supplied from MKE brass factory in Turkey. The results of the example have showed that the proposed approach can be effectively used for solving blending problem including aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in brass casting and other scrap based production process.     

Oil crisis,energy-saving technological change and the stock market crash of 1973–74

The market value of U.S. corporations was nearly halved during the oil crisis of 1973–74. In this paper, we investigate the hypothesis that the sharp rise in energy costs during this period resulted in the obsolescence of firms' existing capital and reduced their market value. To quantify this obsolescence channel of the energy crisis, we simulate a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model, where firms adopt energy-saving technologies along with the rise in energy prices, and the value of their installed capital falls due to investment irreversibility. We find that this channel can account for a third of the decline in Tobin's q observed in the data. Separately, we consider the role of investment subsidies extended by the government during this period to expedite the adoption of energy-saving technologies. This extension of the model can account for more than half of the decline in q. We also find empirical support for the capital obsolescence channel in cross-sectional regressions, where we show that the sectoral variation in the decline of energy use following the crisis is significant in explaining the sectoral variation in the drop of market values.     

Public external debt,informality and production efficiency in developing countries

This paper proposes an alternative approach to investigate the non-linear effect of external debt on growth. In the theoretical part, we develop an endogenous growth model with formal and informal sectors to analyse the effect of the public external debt on the production efficiency. We show that an increase of the public external debt share increases the production efficiency through a positive externality effect. However, it generates an opposite effect via the reduction of the formal sector’s size in favour of a less efficient informal sector. The resultant effect becomes negative beyond an optimal level. Besides, we show that a large stock of public external debt reduces the production efficiency when it leads to a tight fiscal policy which reduces the formal sector size. Empirically, using a stochastic frontier technique with unobserved heterogeneity, for a panel of 27 developing countries for the period of 1970–2005, we confirm that the turning point associated to the effect of the share external public debt is apparent at 84%.     

How retail entrepreneurs perceive the link between surveillance,feeling of security,and competitiveness of the retail store? A structural model approach

This study seeks to create a comprehensive understanding of the ways in which retail entrepreneurs perceive the link between surveillance and customers’ and employees’ sense of security at the store level. This study also analyzes the link between customers’ and employees’ sense of the security and store's competitiveness from the viewpoint of retail entrepreneurs. The present study utilizes elements of Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) in its theoretical approach. The population for the study consisted of 946 grocery store K-retail entrepreneurs. The data collection was carried out through an Internet survey in February and March 2009. A total of 161 grocery store retailers filled in the questionnaire, yielding a response rate of 17%. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The study revealed that formal surveillance has a negative impact on customers’ feelings of security from the retailers’ point of view. In contrast to formal surveillance, informal surveillance had positive impacts on customers’ and employees’ feelings of security. Retail entrepreneurs perceived that both customers’ and employees’ feeling of security had a positive impact on the store's competitiveness.     

Changes in the value relevance of accounting information over time: Evidence from the emerging market of China

We investigate the changes in the value relevance of accounting information among Chinese firms over the past two decades, during which accounting reforms are launched to provide decision makers with increased disclosure and higher quality financial information. We also investigate the factors that differentiate firms showing significant value relevance improvement from firms showing little improvement. We find increases in the value relevance of some financial variables and decreases in others, which suggests that accounting numbers help to explain the pricing process of stock shares although at different levels. In addition, we find that value relevance improvements are more pronounced for smaller firms, firms with lower growth rates, and those with greater asset tangibility. We also document that value relevance improvements are generally lower in an exuberant stock market. These results have implications for a variety of information users and policy makers in emerging countries which are reforming their accounting systems.