The impact of cash transfers on household welfare in Namibia

Namibia has a long history of providing a universal and non-contributory old age pension, child grants using means testing and quasi-conditionalities, and other cash transfers. Multivariate analysis presented in this paper confirms that these transfers play an important role in alleviating poverty, especially for the very poor. The poverty-reducing effects of the child grants are likely to increase further as access is being rapidly expanded. However, the impact in terms of reducing Namibia's extremely high inequality is limited. The targeting of the cash transfers towards the poorest groups takes place through two main channels. For the child grant, targeting occurs as a result of the orphan status eligibility criteria, as orphans are over-represented in lower-income households. For the universal social pension, it appears that some of the relatively less poor do not receive it even if they are eligible. Means testing of child grants appears ineffective, even without considering administrative costs.     

How better targeting of social spending affects social delivery in South Africa

Social spending has become a major tool of targeting resources to South Africa's poor. The poor now get considerably more than their population share of social spending, but the underlying distribution of income is so skewed that overall post-fiscal inequality has not improved much. Concentration ratios and curves show considerable shifts in social spending incidence in the period 1995 to 2006. However, the efficiency of that spending is low, resulting in limited social outcomes and consequently also limited gains to the poor from better targeting. This paper therefore calls for the South African policy discussion to shift to why the ever-increasing fiscal inputs and improved targeting of those inputs have not produced the desired social outcomes.     

Nested analysis of variance: Review of methods

Summary Methods of the nested analysis of variance procedures are discussed and a formalized three-way nested model is outlined. A summary of the statistical tests for the assumptions relevant to the model is given together with an outline of the numerical methods for calculating the sum of squares, the degrees of freedom, the mean squares, the tests of significance, and the estimate of variance components. Several methods are given for obtaining confidence limits for variance components. Procedures are presented for utilizing the variance components to estimate process and/or control limits and to obtain the most efficient or optimum sampling scheme. Some differences between the nested analysis of variance model and the crossed analysis of variance model are explained.     

Resource shifts in South African schools after the political transition

Although racial data are no longer available, this article uses a 1997 dataset to compare education spending with the pre-democracy situation. The new government emphasised fiscal resource shifts to eliminate spending discrimination rather than changing educational outcomes. Fiscal resource shifts in education and increased education spending were concentrated in formerly black schools. At the geographic level, non-metropolitan regions gained massively. Yet, as qualified teachers remain scarce in poorer schools, fiscal inequalities have remained, also among black schools. In addition, private resources have considerably supplemented the resources of affluent schools. The large spending shift was mainly a fiscal one (higher teacher salaries in poor schools), although real resource shifts (in pupil/teacher ratios) were not insubstantial. However, poor matriculation results indicate that additional resources, whether fiscal or real, were poorly translated into improved educational outcomes. As equity in education should be measured by equitable educational outcomes rather than equity in educational resource allocation, much work remains to be done.     

Hosting major sports events: the challenge of taming white elephants

While the literature on the economic impacts of major sports events has grown considerably over the years, the question of utilisation of venues built for these events after the party is over has received little attention. This article fills some of the gaps in the literature. By means of a Stadium Utilisation Index, it measures the post-event utilisation of venues that were constructed of significantly refurbished to host major sports events in the period from 1996 to 2010. It reveals some of the challenges facing the utilisation of the venues once ‘the circus has left town’. The regressions identify that private owned stadiums have a higher rate of utilisation than publicly built venues. The stadiums with the highest capacity tend to have higher utilisation. Last, but not least in terms of importance, stadiums in nations with a high degree of corruption had the lowest utilisation.     

POST‐TRANSITION POVERTY TRENDS BASED ON AN ALTERNATIVE DATA SOURCE1

This paper analyses a previously unused source of data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – to arrive at alternative estimates of the post‐transition poverty path. The motivations for using this non‐official data source are twofold: concern over the comparability of the existing official post‐transition datasets – the Income and Expenditure Survey (IES) and Population Census – and a desire to extend analysis of poverty trends beyond 2001. While official data sources are generally preferred for purposes of poverty analysis, the IES and Census collect data at long (5 or 10 year) intervals, and additional years pass before these datasets become available to the public. In some cases there is also concern about data comparability between surveys. The expenditure data contained in the General Household Survey are available annually, although data are captured in a small number of categories that are not very conducive to analysis at the lower end of the income distribution. Analysis on AMPS data confirms the large decline in poverty implied by an increase of R18 billion (in 2000 Rand) in social grant payments between 2000 and 2004. The direction of this trend is consistent with recent research findings based on more frequently analysed data sources, including the work done by Agüero, Carter and May (2005), Seekings (2006 ) and Meth (2006 ).