Der deutsche Konjunkturzyklus: Vermessung und Zusammenhang mit Investitionen

On average, the German business cycle is four to five years long. The cycle is quite pronounced and explains about 27 % of the variation in year on year GDP growth. For fluctuations with a duration of more than two years, there is a significant unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP growth to investment. A closer look reveals two things: first of all, that the Granger causality runs from GDP to investment in equipment and machinery, not investment in construction, and second, that it is lagged foreign demand (exports) rather than domestic demand that has predictive power for investment.     

Tobacco and alcohol: complements or substitutes?

The question of whether alcohol and tobacco are consumed as complements or substitutes is crucial for determining the side-effects of anti-smoking policies. Numerous papers have empirically addressed this issue by estimating demand systems for alcohol and tobacco, and subsequently calculating cross-price effects. However, this traditional approach is often seriously hampered by insufficient price variation observed in survey data. We, therefore, suggest an alternative instrumental variables approach that statistically mimics an experimental study and does not rely on prices as explanatory variables. This approach is applied by means of German survey data. Our estimation results suggest that a reduction in tobacco consumption results in a moderate reduction in alcohol consumption. It is demonstrated that this implies that alcohol and tobacco are complements. Hence, we conclude that successful anti-smoking policies will not result in the unintended side-effect of an increased (ab)use of alcohol.     

Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity,Collapsing Fish Stocks,and Multispecies Fishery Management*

We present a model of a multispecies fishery, and we show the following. (i) Consumer preferences for seafood diversity can trigger a sequential collapse of fish stocks under open‐access fishery. (ii) The stronger the preferences are for diversity, the higher is the need for coordinated multispecies regulation. (iii) Second‐best optimal management of only one (or a few) species is less strict than socially optimal management of the same species. (iv) Myopic regulation of one species, ignoring spillovers to other species, can cause depletion of other stocks that would not be depleted under open access.     

Financial Markets for Unknown Risks if Beliefs Differ

We consider a general equilibrium model with individual and collective risks. The article builds on a contribution by Chichilnisky and Heal, who show that contingent Arrow–Debreu equilibria can also be supported in economies with Arrow securities and mutual insurance contracts. However, they show this to be true in general only if beliefs are identical, a very restrictive assumption in the context of unknown risks. Moreover, they claim complete insurance in equilibrium to be impossible if beliefs are different. We show that even with different beliefs, firstly, complete insurance is possible in each statistical state, and secondly, contingent equilibrium can still be supported in economies with insurance and securities.     

Efficient replenishment im handel — probleme und lösungsansätze aus sicht der agency-theorie

In den letzten Jahren hat Efficient Consumer Response vermehrt in der Konsumgüterindustrie Einzug gehalten. In der Praxis wird die lieferseitige Kooperation von Herstellern und H?ndlern im Efficient Replenishment jedoch durch verschiedene Probleme erschwert. Diese lassen sich aus Sicht der Prinzipal-Agenten-Theorie interpretieren. So lassen sich theorie-basierte L?sungsans?tze, sogenannte Kooperationsdesigns, erarbeiten, die diese Probleme mindern und dadurch die Stabilit?t und Effizienz der Kooperation steigern k?nnten.     

“A profit table or a profit calculator?” A note on the design of Cournot oligopoly experiments

We report on an experiment conducted to evaluate the effects of varying the way in which market information is presented to participants in laboratory Cournot duopolies. We find that the most standard variations, which are the use of a profit table or a profit calculator, yield indistinguishable performance. However, the addition of a best-response option to the profit calculator tends to increase aggregate output to the Cournot level and decrease the incidence of tacit collusion.     

Timing and Commitment of Environmental Policy,Adoption of New Technology,and Repercussions on R&;D

We investigate the interplay between environmental policy, incentives to adoptnew technology, and repercussions on R&D. We study a model where a monopolistic upstream firm engages in R&D and sells advanced abatement technology to polluting downstream firms. We consider four different timing and commitment regimes of environmental tax and permit policies: ex post taxation (or issuing permits), interim commitment to a tax rate (a quota of permits) after observing R&D success but before adoption, and finally two types of ex antecommitment before R&D activity, one with a unique tax rate (quota of permits), the other one with a menu of tax rates (permit quotas). We study the second best tax and permit policies and rank these with respect to welfare. In particular, we find that commitment to a menu of tax rate dominates all other policy regimes.     

Asymmetric information as a barrier to knowledge spillovers in expert markets

This paper investigates barriers to effective knowledge spillovers for markets in which the product can be characterized as a credence good, i.e. its complexity impedes the evaluation of quality by customers both ex-ante and ex-post. We focus on the German market for energy efficiency consultants, as an emerging and subsidized sector in which the service offered has strong credence good properties. Based upon in-depth interviews with stakeholders, we analyze the determinants and barriers to knowledge spillovers. We find that the incentive to foster spillovers to increase suppliers’ knowledge is limited by the difficult commercialization of additional capabilities. The implementation of a public certification scheme has failed to increase the sectoral knowledge spillovers. By contrast, the participation in formal knowledge networks has been more effective in prompting companies to foster knowledge spillovers, which has also led to a higher degree of specialization. We conclude that access to certification schemes should be further restricted to increase market transparency and private networks should be supported to achieve the aim of increasing knowledge spillovers.     

Significant Issues for the Future: Some Additional Perspectives

The rational elements of management dominated the questions raised by our Editorial Board members in the previous issue of JPIM when they offered their ideas in, "Significant Issues For the Future of Product Innovation." In this article, the discussion is continued with some other Board members but this time the human side of managements gets its due attention. The issues presented here add to the picture of complexity that is the reality of product innovation but they also may provoke the thinking that can lead to an improvement in management performance.     

Advertising Creativity: The Role of Divergence Versus Meaningfulness

Creativity is seen as an essential component of advertising and is continuing to attract research interest. While there is widespread agreement on the value of creativity, there are two different perspectives on the key components of creativity. One perspective sees creativity as primarily divergence, containing elements of novelty, aesthetic representation, newness, and difference. The second includes, in addition to divergence, the concept of meaningfulness (or appropriateness or connectedness) to the consumer. This view argues that if an advertisement is not meaningful then it simply is not creative. We attempt to find some empirical resolution to this issue. Our findings indicate that divergence is indeed an important element of creativity. Meaningfulness, however, while certainly very important to ad effectiveness, appears to be a distinct and separate construct from creativity.