Daniel Yergin: The new map: energy,climate, and the clash of nations

Business Economics -     

Do satisfying walking and cycling trips result in more future trips with active travel modes? An exploratory study

Previous studies have indicated that travel satisfaction - the experienced emotions during, and cognitive evaluation of, a trip - can be affected by travel mode choice and other trip characteristics. However, as satisfactory trips might improve a person's attitude towards the used mode, persons may be more likely to use that same mode for future trips of the same kind. Hence, a cyclical process between travel mode choice and travel satisfaction might occur. In this paper we begin to analyse this process—using a structural equation modelling approach on cross-sectional data—for people who engage in walking and cycling for leisure trips in the Belgian city of Ghent. The focus on walking and cycling reflects recent studies indicating that active travel is often associated with the highest levels of travel satisfaction. Results of this exploratory analysis offer tentative support for the idea of a cyclical process: the evaluation of walking and cycling trips positively affects the respondents' attitude towards the respective mode, which in turn has a positive effect on choosing that mode.     

Inflationsziel und Inflationsmessung in der Eurozone im Wandel

Wirtschaftsdienst - Viele Menschen im Euroraum haben zunehmend das Gefühl, dass der allgemeine Kaufkraftverlust des Geldes sehr viel höher ist als die offiziell gemessenen...     

Can investors time their exposure to private equity?

Private equity performance, both for buyouts and venture capital, has been highly cyclical: periods of high fundraising have been followed by periods of low performance. Despite this seemingly predictable variation, we find modest gains, at best, to pursuing realistic, investable strategies that time capital commitments to private equity. This occurs, in part, because investors can only time their commitments to funds; they cannot time when commitments are called or when investments are exited. There is a high degree of time-series correlation in net cash flows even across commitment strategies that allocate capital in a very different manner over time.     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

One-sided bargaining over a finite set of alternatives

I consider a bargaining game in which only one player can make proposals and the space of proposals is finite. Thus, the game is like a situation where: (i) a CEO suggests a possible hire, who must be okayed by a board of directors, or (ii) the US president nominates a potential judge, who must be okayed by the Senate. My main result is an algorithm that finds the unique subgame-perfect equilibrium. The number of steps in the algorithm is on the order of $n$, the number of possibilities (e.g., applicants to a job) that the bargainers may consider. By contrast, if one uses backwards induction to solve the game, then the number of steps is on the order of $n!$. A corollary of the main result, similar to some results of previous bargaining models, is that the wait costs of only one player, the non-proposer, is relevant to the outcome. The wait costs of the proposer are irrelevant, provided that they are positive. Applied to the nomination process specified by the US Constitution, the corollary suggests that only the Senate's wait costs are relevant to the outcome—the president's wait costs are irrelevant. As I argue, this result may explain a little-noticed regularity of American politics. This is that the Senate seems to have much influence in the selection of lower-court judges but relatively little influence in the selection of Supreme Court justices.     

The impact of environmental regulation on Chinese spatial development

We examine the relationship between environmental regulation and spatial development in China. Exploiting changes in national pollution standards for three industries, ammonia, paper and cement, we measure the impact of environmental regulation on industry productivity. Our results suggest that national pollution standards do not affect industry productivity, but they reallocate productivity spatially. We show that regulated industries located in developing cities increase their productivity compared to similar industries in other cities. This means that environmental regulation affects the spatial distribution of technology in China and might influence long‐term spatial development by reducing geographical disparities.     

Emotional arousal and entrepreneurial outcomes: Combining qualitative methods to elaborate theory

This qualitative study of innovators in the superyacht industry blends longitudinal content analysis with narrative case vignettes to extend nascent theorizing about the antecedents and consequences associated with the arousal of entrepreneurial emotion. The empirically grounded framework induced through our research offers two key theoretical elaborations. First, it extends the existing set of theorized antecedents by highlighting the overlooked roles played by dramatic performances (staged or improvised) and ambient conditions (project, actor and venue considerations). Second, it calls attention to the consequences of emotional arousal for such entrepreneurial outcomes as generating novel solutions to specific problems encountered during the creation process, developing innovative end products, and fostering a general context for innovation.