Exploring expanding expertise: artificial intelligence as an existential threat and the role of prestigious commentators, 2014–2018

The post-2010 technological resurgence in artificial intelligence (AI) was followed by a series of public warnings by prestigious intellectuals, scientists, and entrepreneurs presenting AI as an existential threat. While their expertise in other fields is undeniable, their knowledge of AI remains questionable. With expert studies as a theoretical point of departure, the empirical data collected narrate the events which systematically shaped this view between 2014 and 2018. This chronology captures the interplay between such statements by ‘expanding experts’ in the press and traces their impact on governmental policy documents in the EU, UK, and US, while highlighting the overall absence of experts in these debates. The conclusions recommend the inclusion of AI experts in relevant policymaking schemes and the further exploration of the networks between such prestigious individuals, the purposes and origins of emerging future/risk studies institutions, and their impact on AI R&D in the long run via empirical means.     

Do dictatorships redistribute more?

This paper examines the effect of political institutions on fiscal redistribution for a country-level panel from 1960–2010. Using data on Gini coefficients before and after government intervention, we apply a measure of effective fiscal redistribution that reflects the effect of taxes and transfers on income inequality. Our findings clearly indicate that non-democratic regimes demonstrate significantly greater direct fiscal redistribution. Subsequently, we employ fiscal data in an attempt to enlighten this puzzling empirical finding. We find that dictatorial regimes rely more heavily on cash transfers that exhibit a direct impact on net inequality and consequently on the difference between market and net inequality (i.e., effective fiscal redistribution), whereas democratic regimes devote a larger amount of resources to public inputs (health and education) that may influence market inequality but not the difference between market and net inequality per se. We argue that the driving force behind the observed differences within the pattern on government spending and effective fiscal redistribution is that democratic institutions lead survival-oriented leaders to care more for the private market, and thus to follow policies that enhance the productivity of the whole economy.     

Technological Progress,Income Distribution,and The Explanation of Some Stylized Facts of Economic Growth

This paper examines the effects of technological progress in the framework of a specific-factor variant of the “dependent economy” model. We analyse, first, the effects of technological progress on income distribution, and secondly, its effects on commodity prices, and the structure of production. Our model predicts that, services must be more expensive in the country with higher per capita GDP, and that labor productivity in manufactures is positives associated with the per capita income, etc. The model can also explain several other stylized facts of economic growth. [O33, F11]     

Centralized and decentralized control polices for a two-stage stochastic supply chain with subcontracting

An analysis of control policies for a two-stage supply chain with subcontractors at each stage is presented when decisions at each stage concerning safety stocks, backorders, and subcontracting are made jointly or in a decentralized manner. The inventory/admission control policies considered are base stock, echelon base stock and partial backordering, and the objective is to maximize the mean profit rate of the system. The optimal control parameters are found by exhaustive search using Markov chains. From numerical examples it appears that the policies which manage jointly sales and production levels in each stage provide much higher overall (system) profits than decentralized policies, although the latter are individually more profitable for the second stage. In addition, partial backordering provides the system with an extra profit above those that result from the lost sales (no backordering) and complete backordering policies. Finally, a number of numerical results show the impact of variations in certain system parameters on the optimal control parameters and the corresponding profit.     

A realistic model of market liquidity and depth

A model that realistically defines market liquidity and depth is introduced. Liquidity is the expected rate of order execution in shares per minute. Depth is the average density of the limit order book in shares per dollar. Illiquid markets tend to exhibit longer execution delays and indirectly higher risk related to price impact. Markets with low depth are characterized by high price sensitivity and larger risks. Deviations from fundamental value exist because arbitraging them away carries liquidity cost, entails impact risk, and generates negatively skewed profits. Premia include liquidity and transparency components. In order to avoid excessive frontrunning and liquidity withholding around their block trade, traders break their block orders into smaller orders. In anonymous markets, the trader discriminates against early liquidity providers, and is only compensated for liquidity. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:443–464, 2005     

Let's Get Messi? Top‐Scorer Productivity in the European Champions League

Getting a player like Lionel Messi in the squad would seem like a dream come true for a professional football manager, but is it always best to have top‐quality players? We study the determinants of top goal‐scorers’ productivity in the UEFA Champions League. We find evidence of a concave relationship between age and productivity and uncover an inverted‐U relationship between performance and minutes played. Finally, we find a positive effect on height, being left footed and being a striker on the probability of scoring a goal. The results have important implications for managers both in looking to sign on new players and to maximise their potential during a competitive match.     

Loan Loss Severity and Optimal Mortgage Default

This paper tests the contingent claims model of mortgage default in its ruthless or frictionless form. The principal tests of the model are based on an unconventional source of data, namely, loan loss severities on defaulted mortgages. The frictionless model has well-defined predictions about loss severities which we test in detail. The data analyzed include a random sample of all mortgages originated during the period 1975–90 and purchased by Freddie Mac, as well as the loss severities on all mortgages purchased by Freddie Mac which defaulted during the period. The frictionless model does not do well in these tests.     

Construction of D-optimal s 1 × s 2 × s 3 factorial designs using graph theory

In this paper, the maximum determinant of the associated 0-1 matrix in D-Optimal saturated main effect plans for 3× s_2 × s_3 factorials, is derived by the use of Graph theory and Combinatorics. The present work is related to a problem suggested by Chatterjee and Narasimhan (2002). Using the theoretical results, we also give the designs for s₃≥s₂ + 1. This research was supported by the State Scholarships Foundation of Greece.     

Tax Incidence in a Model with Efficiency Wages and Unemployment

Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to examine the effects of taxation on income distribution in a model with efficiency wages and involuntary unemployment. Central to our efficiency-wage model is the hypothesis that firms set wages above market-clearing levels, whenever the productivity of labor depends on the real wage paid by the firm, and unemployment. Within a two sector general equilibrium model we study the incidence of factor and commodity taxes on income distribution, and unemployment. Our findings differ substantially from those derived by the traditional neoclassical analysis, originally developed by Harberger, and as it has been extended by several authors.