Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors

Recent work finds evidence that the volatility of the U.S. economy fell dramatically around the first quarter of 1984. We trace the timing of this so-called “Great Moderation” across many subsectors of the economy in order to better understand its root cause. We find that the interest rate sensitive sectors generally experience a much earlier volatility decline than other large sectors of the economy. The changes in Federal Reserve stabilization policies that occurred during the early 1980s support the view that an improved monetary policy played an important role in stabilizing real economic activity. We find only mild evidence that “good luck” was important and little evidence to support the claim that improved inventory management was important.     

Out-of-Sample Forecasts and Nonlinear Model Selection with an Example of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

It is well known that goodness-of-fit measures lead to overfitting. We compare the small-sample properties of linear and several nonlinear models using a Monte Carlo study. A large number of linear series are generated and conventional methods of fitting nonlinear models are applied to each. The best linear and nonlinear models are compared using in-sample and out-of-sample criteria. Out-of-sample forecasts are shown to be superior for selecting the proper specification. The experiment is repeated using a nonlinear model and the in-sample lit and forecasts of the various models are compared. An example is provided using the term structure of interest rates.     

The effect of robust growth on poverty: a nonlinear analysis

Previous research has shown that economic growth should help to reduce the rate of poverty. However, a number of recent studies have found that the economic expansion of the 1980s had no statistically significant effect on aggregate poverty. It is shown that both a Threshold regression and a Fourier approximation provide a better empirical model of poverty than the standard linear model. It is noteworthy that the nonlinear specifications show a large and significant effect on poverty of the 1980s expansion.     

SME financing and the choice of lending technology in Italy: Complementarity or substitutability?

This paper investigates SME financing in Italy. The literature distinguishes between two main different lending technologies (LTs) for SMEs: transactional and relationship LTs. We find that banks lend to SMEs by using both LTs together, independently of the size and proximity of borrowers. Moreover, we show that the use of soft information decreases the probability of firms being credit rationed. Finally, we find that more soft information is produced when the bank uses relationship LT as primary technology individually or coupled with transactional LT. Our results support the view that LTs can be complementary, but reject the hypothesis that substitutability among LTs is somehow possible for outsiders by means of hardening of soft information.     

From public ideology to socio-material reproduction of agile principles: The case of pivotal labs

This paper focuses on how regular invocation of a public ideology helps sustain local work practices. Existing research acknowledges that there is a recursive relationship between the local practices and the public ideas, with local practices leading to the adaption of public ideas over time. There is little study of how public ideology sustains local practices over the longer term – seeing translation of the ideology as an ongoing process. Through a case study and web-based analysis of Pivotal Labs, an agile software development company, we contribute to socio-material translation studies demonstrating the manifestation of the public ideology in socio-material practices. We also introduce the concept of a collective cognitive bridge that supports the continued relevance of the public idea as a prop for these socio-material practices.     

A general test for time dependence in parameters

A new test for time‐dependent parameters is proposed. The Trig‐test is based on a trigonometric expansion to approximate the unknown functional form of the variation in the parameters concerned. It is shown to have the correct empirical size and excellent power to detect structural breaks and stochastic parameter variation. The appropriate use of the Trig‐test is demonstrated by testing for structural breaks in the US inflation rate. The test detects a statistically significant increase in the US inflation rate beginning in the early 1970s and lasting through to the early 1980s. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does ICT adoption improve access to credit for small enterprises?

Using data at the bank–firm level collected through the 9th UniCredit Survey conducted in 2012 on a large sample of small businesses, we investigate the extent to which a large international bank offers better credit conditions to enterprises that use ICT more extensively. The results, which are robust to selection and endogeneity issues, show that banks tend to grant increasing volumes of credit to such enterprises. We interpret this evidence as the ceteris paribus effect of ICT adoption by small businesses on the quality of information transmitted to banks. Another possible interpretation is that banks consider ICT adoption as a signal of firms’ willingness to innovate. We also discuss implications concerning the key role that technology plays in changing the ‘arm’s length’ versus ‘relationship’ lending paradigms.     

Information in the U.S. Treasury Term Structure of Interest Rates

We provide evidence of a significant change in the information content of the U.S. Treasury term structure of interest rates over the last 20 years. We apply a regression approach to measure the information in forward interest rates and introduce both a curve fitting method and an alternative data source. We find more information in the recent U.S. Treasury term structure about future interest rates than about expected holding period returns. These results document a significant departure from prior empirical findings.     

A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks*

We develop a unit‐root test based on a simple variant of Gallant's (1981) flexible Fourier form. The test relies on the fact that a series with several smooth structural breaks can often be approximated using the low frequency components of a Fourier expansion. Hence, it is possible to test for a unit root without having to model the precise form of the break. Our unit‐root test employing Fourier approximation has good size and power for the types of breaks often used in economic analysis. The appropriate use of the test is illustrated using several interest rate spreads.