通胀目标制与汇率目标制不能共存吗

基于汇率传递的风险溢价渠道，本文将我国利率调控通胀、外汇储备对冲干预汇率纳入新凯恩斯政策模型，构建双目标双工具政策分析框架，比较泰勒规则与双目标双工具规则下通胀目标与汇率目标共存的经济机制与效应。本文模拟显示：（1）双目标双工具政策框架下通胀目标与汇率目标能够共存，此时通过影响汇率风险溢价来盯住汇率不影响通胀；而单工具政策下两目标无法共存，此时降低国内资产的收益率盯住汇率会刺激居民的消费行为引起通胀。（2）国际资本冲击下，双目标双工具政策在固定汇率的同时能保证经济稳定；而当贸易条件恶化时，选择完全浮动汇率制度最优。央行政策损失分析进一步验证了以上结论。（3）随着金融市场化改革深入，外汇储备稳定汇率的有效性将下降，冲销成本会大幅提升。资本账户开放下，双目标双工具政策仍是央行抵御外部资本冲击的首选政策；但是汇率市场化后，通胀目标制与双目标双工具政策效果基本无差异。本文结论的启示是：面对国际资本，需必要的汇率管制；但是面对贸易冲击，可适度提升汇率弹性来减少冲击对产出和通胀的影响。     

就业结构调整对水库移民土地流转的影响研究*——以南水北调中线工程移民为例

[目的]为促进水库移民的生计恢复及转型,探寻就业结构和土地流转间的交互机制,分析两者间耦合作用对当前移民安置模式及政策的影响。[方法]文章从移民就业结构变迁出发,通过超边际理论构建了安置区移民土地的流转机制模型,推演了从业决策对土地流转行为的影响路径,并运用南水北调农业安置移民数据进行实证检验。[结果]大面积转出土地是移民搬迁后土地处置的主要行为,移民中土地转入户有所增加,但土地集中度却有所减少。移民非农就业较搬迁前有明显上升,并有向当地兼业转移的趋势,但与土地流转间并不互为因果,农村社保还难以弱化其对土地养老的依赖。劳动力数量、非农就业时间、非农收入占比、土地政策等对移民土地流转行为和规模均有显著影响,而外出就业前景和地租水平在促进土地流转行为的同时,却不一定能增加土地流转面积。[结论]移民外迁中可以采用无土安置代替农业安置,推动移民土地流转的关键在于技能培训、政策保障和地租补贴,简单的就业推荐和土地权属划分的作用有限。而对于移民中的农业大户,则需在满足土地转入面积的基础上,保障其在安置区的各项土地权益。     

Factors affecting consumers’ purchase intention of eco‐friendly food in China: The evidence from respondents in Beijing

The purpose aims to examine the key factors influencing Chinese consumer’s purchasing behaviour of eco‐friendly food in China giving its context as an emerging economy and its rapidly rising importance in the world eco‐friendly food market. This paper adopts and extends the Responsible Environmental Behaviour (REB) theory by empirically testing key psychosocial factors influencing the purchase intention of eco‐friendly food and the moderating effects of consumers’ demographic characteristics on the relationship between the key psychosocial factors and the purchase intention. A number of hypotheses are proposed. A questionnaire was designed and distributed via online survey in Beijing, China. A total of 239 valid responses were received. The empirical data were used to test the research hypotheses using the hierarchical multiple regression analysis. The research finds that the personality factors in the REB model (i.e., pro‐environmental attitudes, the internal locus of control and personal responsibly) have significant positive effects on the consumers’ eco‐friendly food purchase intention. Such effect is stable across consumers with different income levels. On the other hand, the knowledge–skill factors in the REB model do not have significant effect on the purchase intention of consumers. This study contributes to a better understanding of factors affecting eco‐friendly food consumption intention in China and the behavioural characteristics of consumers in developing countries. Moreover, the findings also shed light on the applicability of the REB theory in emerging economies and a specific industrial context.     

Why has China’s vertical specialization declined?

Vertical specialization (VS) is quantified by the VS share, which measures the average import content per dollar of exports. A characteristic of China’s export trade is its strong dependence on assembly and processing activities. To take proper account of this, China’s VS shares should explicitly distinguish processing export production from other production. We estimate China’s annual VS shares from 2000 to 2012—the latest year for which a special input–output table is available that makes such an explicit distinction. We find that VS shares increased from 2000 to 2004 and subsequently started to decrease. To explore why it has declined, we introduce a new structural decomposition approach. We find that the decrease of the VS share appears to have been driven mainly by the substitution of imported intermediates by domestic products. This occurred in particular in the production of exports, which implies an upgrading of China’s position in global value chains.     

Crowdsourcing-based semantic relation recognition for natural language questions over RDF data

ABSTRACT

Natural language query systems over RDF data need to rely on the semantic relations in query. First, we propose the new crowdsourcing model that used to produce semantic relations dataset. The model not only inherits completeness of the iterative model and accuracy of the parallel model, but also saves human resources. Second, we mine the rules of semantic relation recognition from the correlations between dependency structures and semantic relations. Third, we propose an algorithm of semantic relation recognition for natural language query over RDF data, and experiments demonstrate that it can recognize more semantic relations than existing methods.     

论我国设立临时仲裁的困境与突围 ——以上海自贸区之探索为视角

临时仲裁作为国际通行的经济纠纷解决机制,在我国却遭遇"合法性"困境,这不仅使得我国丧失争夺国际商事仲裁服务市场之机会,还造成不公平不对等之现象.随着经济体制改革、政府治理模式的嬗变以及上海自贸区的设立,我国已具备引入临时仲裁制度的"生长土壤".应把握自贸区先试先行、制度创新之契机,在区内构建以仲裁机构为依托之临时仲裁,积累可复制、可推广的经验以期最终在全国范围内推行,填补《仲裁法》立法阙如.     

军民科技协同创新要素融合机制研究

构建一体化国家战略体系和能力是新时代实施军民融合战略的重要目标，军民科技协同创新则是实现该目标的必然选择。基于扎根理论建立军民科技协同创新影响因素体系，通过分析影响因素间的交互关系构建系统动力学模型。根据模型对案例进行仿真分析，考察单因素作用、多因素协同作用、多因素非协同作用条件下协同创新水平变化情况。从军民科技协同创新内涵、结构、功能实现3个层面揭示要素融合机制。据此，为国家军民深度融合提供相应政策建议。     

技术创新能力生命周期与研发投入对企业绩效的影响

研发投入与企业绩效的关系一直备受国内外学者关注,但对该问题的研究并未得出一致结论。技术创新能力是高新技术企业内部能力的基础,不同技术创新能力水平下研发投入对企业绩效的影响存在显著差异。通过分析78家高科技上市公司2007-2013年面板数据,建立回归方程模型,探讨了在不同企业技术创新阶段研发投入与绩效的关系。实证研究表明,在成长期与成熟期,研发投入与绩效呈正向关系。其中,在成长期,该正向关系最显著;进入衰退期,二者之间不存在统计意义上的相关性。     

中国新能源汽车产业创新系统功能演化研究--兼论政府措施的作用

新能源汽车产业是中国重点发展的七大战略性新兴产业之一,剖析其创新系统的发展与完善过程,识别发展过程中的影响因素,并了解政府在这一演化过程中如何进行介入和引导,对新能源汽车以及其他新兴产业的发展具有重要的理论与实践价值。本文以创新系统功能理论为基础,构建了针对中国新能源汽车产业创新系统演化分析的功能框架,剖析了中国新能源汽车产业创新系统功能体系的发展与完善过程,同时讨论了政府措施在这一过程中的引导与支撑作用。研究发现,中国新能源汽车产业创新体系正处于快速完善阶段,知识获取、产业制度体系建设等功能已经成熟,而基础设施与支撑平台建设、产业链整合与升级以及正向外部性创造等功能仍有待于进一步完善。同时发现,这一过程中政府采取的各种措施与产业发展过程中遇到的阻碍因素密切相关,措施的类型与着力点也随着各种阻碍因素的出现不断变化,发挥了积极的引导作用。     

盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。