Climate Change,Innovation, and Economic Growth: The Contributions of William Nordhaus and Paul Romer

ABSTRACT

William Nordhaus and Paul Romer shared the 2018 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for their work on long-run macroeconomic analysis. Nordhaus adapted the neoclassical growth model to study climate change, while Romer developed a model of innovation-based growth. The authors provide two distinct explanations of what drives growth, and employ contrasting methodologies for interpreting the results of their mathematical models. Macroeconomic policy in general, and climate policy in particular, would benefit from better integrating the theory and methods of these two laureates.     

Climate for conflict management,exposure to workplace bullying and work engagement: a moderated mediation analysis

The present study investigates a potential preventive factor in relation to workplace bullying. Specifically, we examine how climate for conflict management (CCM) may be related to less bullying, increased work engagement, as well as whether CCM is a moderator in the bullying engagement relationship. The study was based on a cross-sectional survey among employees in a transport company (N = 312). Hypotheses were tested simultaneously in a moderated mediation analysis which showed that bullying and job engagement were related (H1), CCM was related to less reports of bullying (H2), CCM was related to work engagement (H3) and that CCM was indirectly related to job engagement through bullying (H4), but only when CCM was weak (H5). That is, CCM moderated the relationship between bullying and work engagement in that this relationship only existed when CCM was low. The present study contributes to theory within this research field by showing that organizational measures may not only prevent bullying, but may also affect how employees react when subjected to bullying. Furthermore, the effect of climate in relation to bullying may be down to the narrow bandwidth facet of CCM. The study informs employers how they may act to prevent bullying while also reducing the potential negative outcomes of those cases of bullying that inevitably will show up from time to time.     

On the challenge to competitive authoritarianism and political patronage in Malaysia

In March 2008, Malaysia's political landscape was shaken by election results showing that the Barisan Nasional had won less than two thirds of the parliamentary seats and lost five states to the opposition. A two‐thirds supermajority had been seen as a sacred threshold for the coalition to ensure its continued legitimacy. It is conjectured here that the 2008 election represented a challenge to the competitive authoritarian regime and that this had direct effects on firms with ties to the ruling coalition. The empirical results show that firms with political patronage were indeed adversely affected by the electoral outcome. More specifically, firms with close ties to the Barisan Nasional experienced a significant negative value effect. Firms characterised by political patronage also saw their leverage reduced significantly more than other firms after the 2008 election, suggesting that their access to debt capital had become more restricted. Moreover, this effect was mainly driven by changes in long‐term debt. These results suggest a significant negative impact on connected firms as the political status quo was challenged in Malaysia.     

Ten lessons from a quarter of a century of post-communist economic transformation

The dominant idea in the early post-communist economic transition was that an early and comprehensive radical economic reform programme was needed. This program was accompanied by a clear programme of political economy reform, which included; a clear understanding that the old system was finished, a political breakthrough, new political leaders, new economic policymakers, the swift elaboration of a reform programme, a functioning parliament, sufficient international financial support, fast implementation, public understanding, and the overruling of any need for consensus. In hindsight, all of these factors worked when they were present. Critics warned of too sharp an output fall, which did not come to pass, lagging institutional development, and neglect of social reforms. The biggest problem has become the absence of real property rights because of captured judicial systems in the post-communist countries not belonging to the European Union.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality: Evidence from China's policy change

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on local urban inequality in China. Specifically, we consider the FDI policy change as an exogenous shock on the local labour markets. We find that cities that have experienced a bigger policy change in promoting FDI between 1997 and 2002 are significantly more unequal in 2005. This pattern is mainly driven by the positive association between FDI liberalisation and skill premia. The result holds after we control for other policy changes, such as privatisation of state-owned enterprises, infrastructure and trade liberalisation. We then turn to investigate the mechanisms using firm and individual-level information. Our firm-level evidence shows that FDI firms not only hire relatively more high-skilled workers but also provide relatively higher wages to high-skilled workers compared to domestic firms. Moreover, the individual-level analysis shows that FDI has a significantly positive spillover effect on wages received by skilled workers employed by state-owned enterprises, but not wages of unskilled workers.     

IQ and Audit Quality: Do Smarter Auditors Deliver Better Audits?

This study examines the role of an individual auditor's cognitive ability in delivering high‐quality audits. Our results from analyzing archival data from Sweden show that audit partners' IQ scores obtained from psychological tests are positively associated with going‐concern audit reporting accuracy and audit fee premiums. We also find some, albeit weak, evidence that audit partners' IQ scores are negatively associated with the income‐increasing abnormal accruals of the client. These results suggest that, although audit services are standardized through various control mechanisms and audits are conducted by teams rather than by individual auditors, the cognitive ability of audit partners responsible for an audit remains important in delivering high‐quality audit services.     

Effects of time pressure,type of shopping,and store attributes on consumers’ satisfaction with grocery shopping

The aim of this study is to investigate whether satisfaction with grocery stores is affected by type of grocery shopping in conjunction with time pressure, and which attributes are important for satisfaction. Fictitious grocery stores are constructed according to a fractional factorial design by varying access, price level, supply quality/range, and service quality. In an Internet survey, 1023 Swedish consumers rated satisfaction with major vs. fill-in shopping imagining they were under high or low time pressure. The results showed that satisfaction is higher for fill-in shopping than major shopping, that time pressure has no effect on satisfaction, and that price level, service quality, and product quality/range are more important for satisfaction with major shopping, whereas access is more important for satisfaction with fill-in shopping. It is also found that the importance of attributes for satisfaction depends on type of shopping more than on individual characteristics.     

Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE,DSGE‐VAR,and VAR Models

The predictive likelihood is useful for ranking models in forecast comparison exercises using Bayesian inference. We discuss how it can be estimated, by means of marzginalization, for any subset of the observables in linear Gaussian state‐space models. We compare macroeconomic density forecasts for the euro area of a DSGE model to those of a DSGE‐VAR, a BVAR and a multivariate random walk over 1999:Q1–2011:Q4. While the BVAR generally provides superior forecasts, its performance deteriorates substantially with the onset of the Great Recession. This is particularly notable for longer‐horizon real GDP forecasts, where the DSGE and DSGE‐VAR models perform better. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

In this paper, we explicitly introduce regional factors into a global dynamic factor model. We combine new open economy factor models (emphasizing global shocks) with the recent findings of regional importance in the business cycle synchronization literature. The analysis is applied to a large panel of domestic data for four small open economies. We find that global and regional shocks explain roughly 30 and 20 percent, respectively, of the business cycle variation in all countries. While global shocks have most impact on trade variables, regional shocks explain a relatively large share of the variation in cost variables.