Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returns on derivative and underlying securities should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster. The use of high-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time interval to measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of some or many missing observations, causing traditional estimators to either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations. We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships between the cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futures returns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately 10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash market is not completely unidirectional.     

Human Resources Practices as Predictors of Work-Family Outcomes and Employee Turnover

Drawing on a nonrandom sample of 557 dual-earner white-collar employees, this article explores the relationship between human resources practices and three outcomes of interest to firms and employees: work-family conflict, employees' control over managing work and family demands, and employees' turnover intentions. We analyze three types of human resources practices: work-family policies, human resources incentives designed to induce attachment to the firm, and the design of work. In a series of hierarchical regression equations, we find that work design characteristics explain the most variance in employees' control over managing work and family demands, whereas human resources incentives explain the most variance in work-family conflict and turnover intentions. We also find significant gender differences in each of the three models. Our results suggest that the most effective organizational responses to work-family conflict and to turnover are those that combine work-family policies with other human resources practices, including work redesign and commitment-enhancing incentives.     

Collaborative Decision-Making in Non-formal Planning Settings

Planning initiatives outside the formal planning system can constitute a favourable environment for implementing and analysing collaborative decision-making processes. The conceptualisation of the decision-making context in the light of the Policy Network analysis helps to better understand the underlining conditions, as well as their influence in the outcomes. In the case under analysis, were the decision-making conditions were of co-responsibility and power-sharing, the challenge has been to warrant the effectiveness of the decisions, which lies, as is argued, in the reliability of the framework for decision-making and in the ability to translate the collaborative participation outputs into actions at different time-frames. Moreover, as the case-study deals with strategic spatial planning, a future oriented approach is needed to warrant the flexibility and robustness of the plan in addressing the uncertainty associated with long term objectives. Those are the critical issues to be handled in the multi-criteria analysis (MCA) framework which sustains the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) that was used to support the decision-making process.     

A fresh look at the contribution of project management to organizational performance

A better understanding of organizational performance and the contribution that project management can make is the aim. The article adopts the “Competing Values Framework,” a rich framework that is well established both theoretically and empirically but is not well known in the field of project management. The framework is summarized and applied in an empirical investigation of the contribution of project management in general and project management offices (PMOs) in particular to organizational performance. The examination of 11 case studies revealed multiple concurrent and sometimes paradoxical perspectives. The criteria proposed by the framework have been further developed through the identification of a preliminary set of empirically grounded performance indicators. The empirical results contribute to a better understanding of the role of project management generally and PMOs specifically. They also demonstrate the usefulness of this framework for the study of project management's contribution to organizational performance.     

Exploring PMOs through community of practice theory

This article explores project management offices (PMOs) through community of practice theory. Preliminary results from a national health care case study are used to confirm the legitimacy of this approach. Today's knowledge‐based economy calls for mechanisms to share knowledge. The issue of making more with less is at stake in order to reuse good practices, support innovative practice, and prevent the reinvention of the wheel. Members of these communities are at the heart of the learning process. The originality of this research is that it sheds light on PMOs in a new theoretical perspective within the field of knowledge management.     

PDE approach to valuation and hedging of credit derivatives

This paper presents a PDE approach in a Markovian setting to hedge defaultable derivatives. The arbitrage price and the hedging strategy for an attainable contingent claim are described in terms of solutions of a pair of coupled PDEs. For some standard examples of defaultable claims, we provide explicit formulae for prices and hedging strategies.     

Creating a Testable, Estimable Model to Inform Our Response to the Test-Score Gap Crisis

The test-score gap between black and white students should be seen as a crisis. We propose a testable model based on readily available data that will allow us to estimate the impact and interrelationships of a multitude of factors that may be partially responsible for the problem. The estimation of this model will require the joint efforts of experts in many areas of education as well as of experts in multilevel structural equation modeling.     

Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returnson derivative and underlying securities should be perfectlycontemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, oneof these markets may reflect information faster. The use ofhigh-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time intervalto measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of someor many missing observations, causing traditional estimatorsto either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations.We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships betweenthe cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futuresreturns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash marketis not completely unidirectional. JEL Classification: G13, G14