The theoretical and empirical evaluation of the third world brain drain to the United States: 1972-1987

"This paper is divided into four sections. Section I deals with theoretical issues behind labor migration in general with emphasis on 'brain drain'. Section II is concerned with an empirical analysis of third world professional immigration into the U.S. for the time period 1972-1987. Section III discusses policy implications to deal with [the] 'brain drain' problem."     

Unilateral production restrictions in a dynamic duopoly

This paper examines a dynamic game of exploitation of a productive asset by a duopoly. A closed-loop Nash equilibrium of the game is constructed and used to analyze the effects of a unilateral production restriction. Surprisingly, such unilateral action may result in a decrease of the long-run asset's stock. We also exhibit production restrictions that can result simultaneously in an increase of the asset's stock and the long-run profits of the firm that is being imposed the production restriction. Moreover, a unilateral decrease of the production of one firm can induce its rival to also decrease its production.     

Out‐of‐sample stock return predictability in emerging markets

This article builds on the widely debated issue of stock return predictability by applying a broad range of predictor variables and comprehensively considering the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample stock return predictability of ten advanced emerging markets. It compares forecasts from models with a single predictor variable, multiple predictor variables and a combination forecast approach. The results confirm the findings of Welch and Goyal (2008) for US data that only a limited number of individual predictor variables are able to deliver significant out‐of‐sample forecasts. However, a combination forecast approach provides statistically and economically significant out‐of‐sample forecast results.     

Risk-Taking Behavior and Capital Adequacy in a Mixed Banking System: New Evidence from Malaysia Using Dynamic OLS and Two-Step Dynamic System GMM Estimators

This study is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between the level of risky assets and capital level in a mixed Malaysian banking system covering 83 months starting December 2006. The results of dynamic ordinary least squares indicate positive relationship between capital ratio (CAR) and risk-weighted asset ratio (RWA) in the long run. Furthermore, the causality analysis based on panel vector error correction model (VECM) and two-step dynamic system generalized method of moments indicates unidirectional causality from CAR to RWA. Our results further suggest that higher capital growth and capital buffer provide an extra cushion for the Malaysian banks to pursue relatively riskier financial activities, and the nature of risk-taking behavior of Islamic banks follows that of the conventional banks.     

Does foreign investment benefit the exporting activities of Vietnamese firms?

Using firm-level data, this paper examines the effects of foreign investment on the exporting behaviour of domestic firms in the Vietnamese manufacturing and service sectors. Applying the Heckman selection model on panel data and following the Wooldridge approach, we find that investment by foreign firms has a significant positive effect on the decision of domestic firms in the same and upstream sectors to export. The proportion of exports of domestic firms declines through horizontal and forward linkages, but increases through backward linkages in the manufacturing sector. However, there is only weak evidence in support of export spillovers on domestic firms in the service sector. We also find that the presence of foreign firms has differing effects on the exporting activities of low- versus high-tech firms in the manufacturing sector.     

Effect of Consumption Values on Women’s Choice Behavior Toward Organic Foods: The Case of Organic Yogurt in Iran

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of consumption values (i.e., functional value, social value, emotional value, conditional value, epistemic value, environmental value, and health value) on women’s choice behavior toward organic yogurt. Structural equation modeling is used to assess data collected by a questionnaire survey. The results indicate that functional value–quality, functional value–taste, and functional value–price; conditional value; epistemic value; and health value have positive effects on choosing organic yogurt by women, and social value, emotional value, and environmental value have no effects on the subject. Among variables, epistemic value and health value have the highest impact on consumer choice behavior toward organic yogurt. So this study concludes that the main influence factors on choice behavior regarding organic yogurt are epistemic value and health value. In fact, consumers have high knowledge about organic yogurt benefits related to their health.     

Modeling the Factors Affecting Organic or Local Cucumber Purchasing Motivations in Northern Iran

This article has attempted to examine the impact of motivation on the purchasing and represents a model for organic or local cucumbers buying dimensions. Data were collected by a sample of 300 people in two northern provinces of Iran during 7 months and were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique. Results indicate that not using pesticides, preserving people’s health, conservation, better taste, and region of origin of organic or local cucumbers have significant positive impacts on purchasing dimensions and persistence has no significant effect on purchasing dimensions.     

Bayesian and Bühlmann credibility for phase-type distributions with a univariate risk parameter

Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Bühlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Bühlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in the context of a gamma prior, and illustrated by simulated data in a series of examples.     

Wealth effect from real estate and outbound travel demand: the Malaysian case

This study uses quarterly data from Malaysia (2000–2011) to examine the relationship between the wealth effect from real estate (WERE) and outbound tourism while controlling for other relevant outbound tourism determinants. By applying time-series cointegration regressions, the results show that WERE has a positive and significant impact on Malaysian outbound travel demand. Then, we exclude the departures for business purposes from the total departures in order to have a better understanding of the impact of WERE on the consumption of a luxury good like international travel for leisure purposes. Similarly, we find that WERE increases Malaysian international travels for leisure purposes. The findings provide some implications for Malaysian policy-makers as well as tourism and travel agents.