Virtual Currencies,the Money Market,and Monetary Policy

Virtual currencies are in vogue mainly due to two factors. First, as a protest against authority-driven monetary policy decisions and second, as alternatives to deficits in some monetary systems arising out of political instability or other causes. Assuming that virtual currencies indeed (partially) replace national currencies as payment vehicles, we attempt, in this article, to integrate the virtual currency supply and demand into the Keynesian money market framework. This article presents a few results for the central banks and outlines problems that may result for monetary policy formulation. Since this is the first such attempt to model a national money market as a combination of nationally-issued currency and globally-issued virtual currency, certain simplistic assumptions have been made. Nevertheless, the model offers directions on the impact of virtual currencies on the monetary system and the national money market. Additionally, the paper integrates the official standpoints of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on this topic.     

A note on accounting conservatism in residual income and abnormal earnings growth equity valuation

The impact of conservative accounting on residual income (RI) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation models is investigated in this note. Limiting the analyses to information dynamics constrained models (the core models in Ohlson, 1995; Ohlson & Juettner-Nauroth, 2005), we find that both models can handle accounting conservatism if the persistence factors of residual income or abnormal earnings growth fulfil certain conditions. In a comparison of permissible time-series specifications, the AEG model can potentially handle more conservatively biased earnings in the first forecast period than the RI model. However, this requires that the growth of the conservative bias in the second forecast period is not too large. In a 0-NPV competitive equilibrium with a constant steady state growth, both models work equally well. Further elaborations indicate that, in the presence of accounting conservatism a reasonable value of the persistence factor of residual income in the RI model should be in the interval between 1.0 and R (where R = 1 + discount rate), whereas the persistence factor of abnormal earnings growth in the AEG model should be close to 1.0. This implies that the persistence factor in the RI model appears to have been understated while the persistence factor in the AEG model appears to have been overstated in previous empirical research.     

A push to cycling—exploring the e-bike's role in overcoming barriers to bicycle use with a survey and an intervention study

In Norway, as in many countries, there is a political goal to increase bicycle use. The electric bicycle (e-bike) is a promising tool for achieving this goal, given the hilliness of the country. However, little is yet known about the deterrents of cycling in Norway in general, and in particular how the purchase of an e-bike could be stimulated.

In the current study, 5500 respondents from a convenience sample among car owners were asked about their perceptions of bicycling in general, and of e-bikes in particular as well as their willingness to pay (WTP) for an e-bike. Randomly selected participants (N = 66) were given access to an e-bike for a limited time (2 or 4 weeks). A second questionnaire captured the same perceptions and WTP post-intervention. The results were compared with a control group (N = 214).

The results showed that those who cycle the least were most interested in buying an e-bike and that prior knowledge of the e-bike corresponded with a higher desire to buy one. Pro-environmental values did not predict interest in e-bikes, neither did norms and attitudes toward cycling. The WTP for an e-bike increased after having experienced the benefits for those who used an e-bike compared to those who did not. Price reduction of the e-bike (e.g. VAT exemption), spread of knowledge among the wider population, and actions to offer an e-bike experience may therefore be effective strategies for further expansion of the e-bike in the transport system and thereby to increase bicycle use in Norway.     

A comprehensive German business cycle chronology

Business cycle chronologies offer reference points for empirical studies used as benchmarks for business cycle and recession theory. A quasi-official chronology exists for the US economy, but not for most European countries, including Germany. While most papers dealing with business cycle dates rely on one specific method, I present and discuss a number of different dating approaches based on the classical business cycle. These are applied to German GDP data comprising 1970–2006. Finally, based on the results of the different methods, a consensus business cycle chronology for the German economy is suggested.     

Technical analysis and computer trading

The efforts of the central banks of Western industrial countries to stabilize exchange rates following the Louvre Agreement demonstrated yet again how difficult it can be to influence events in the foreign exchange markets. What factors are currently affecting exchange rates? What significance attaches to technical analysis in this context?     

Political problems of the southward extension

The inclusion of Greece, Spain and Portugal in the European Community will result in grave consequences for the old members of the EC as well as for the acceding states. Which are the advantages expected from the southward extension and which problems are likely to arise?     

„Staatsschulden ohne Haftung“ – Eine Option für deutsche Bundesländer?

Eine zentrale Aufgabe der F?deralismuskommission II besteht in der Suche nach geeigneten institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen für eine wirksame Begrenzung der Verschuldung von Bund und L?ndern. Welche Erfahrungen wurden im Ausland mit Haftungsbegrenzungen von Staatsschulden gemacht? W?re dieser Ansatz eine Option für deutsche Bundesl?nder?     

TV Kills Social Capital?

The concept of social capital was introduced into public discussion by Robert Putnam in the mid-nineties. Since Putnam diagnosed a decline in social capital and, as a consequence thereof, a weakening of democracy and civic society in the USA, the concept gained theoretical and political meaning in German public debate as well. The major culprit contributing to the dramatic loss of social capital is said to be an old acquaintance: television. According to Putnam, about 40 percent of the decline is caused by electronic entertainment media, especially television. This article critically reflects on the theoretical foundations of Putnam’s construct of social capital. Using data from a representative survey in the German states of Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt, we examine the relations between social capital on one hand, and television and Internet use on the other. Basically we confirm Putnam’s findings — but only to a degree not even close to the strength Putnam claims to ascertain.