A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

Content analysis of fake consumer reviews by survey-based text categorization

As the influence of online consumer reviews grows, deceptive reviews are a worsening problem, betraying consumers' trust in reviews by pretending to be authentic and informative. This research identifies factors that can separate deceptive reviews from genuine ones. First, we create a novel means of detection by contrasting authentic versus fake word patterns specific to a given domain (e.g., hotel services). We use a survey on a crowdsourcing platform to obtain both genuine and deceptive reviews of hotels. We learned the word patterns from each category to discriminate genuine reviews from fake ones for positively and negatively evaluated reviews, respectively. We show that our All Terms procedure outperforms current benchmark methods in computational linguistics and marketing. Our extended analysis reveals the factors that determine fake reviews (e.g., a lack of details, present- and future-time orientation, and emotional exaggeration) and the factors influencing people's willingness to write fake reviews (including social media trust, product quality consciousness, deal proneness, hedonic and utilitarian consumption, prosocial behavior, and individualism). We also use our procedure to analyze more than 250,000 real-world hotel reviews to detect fake reviews and identify the hotel and review characteristics influencing review fakery in the industry (e.g., star rating, franchise hotel, hotel size, room price, review timing, and review rating).     

Meanings of leisure for older people: an Australian study of line dancing

In Australia and in many parts of the world, older people participate in line dancing. Our phenomenological study explored whether attending a regular line dancing class might offer a group of older people opportunities for active and successful ageing. Our research investigated the meanings and practices fostered in a community line dancing class in Melbourne. We gathered data via an interview with the teacher of the group, observation of a class and two focus group interviews with 25 members. Data were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis that is reported thematically under headings of: Belief in the efficacy of line dancing, Physical and emotional benefits, YouTube clips as instructional reinforcement and promotion, and Socialising. The findings show that participation in the class offered older student’s opportunities for dance and music engagement, active and successful ageing, health and well-being, social connection and purposeful leisure. The teacher of the class modelled serious and successful leisure and advocates for dance as holistic training for older people. We position our participants on a continuum of leisure engagement that ranges from the casual to the serious. Further research is required to support arguments for the efficacy of dance as a leisure pursuit for older adults.     

Green marketing strategies: an examination of stakeholders and the opportunities they present

As green marketing strategies become increasingly more important to firms adhering to a triple-bottom line performance evaluation, the present research seeks to better understand the role of “green” as a marketing strategy. Through an integration of the marketing, management, and operations literatures, an investigative framework is generated that identifies the various stakeholders potentially impacted through the environmentally friendly efforts of a firm. Specifically, the inter-connected nature of the core business disciplines of marketing, management (both strategy and human resources), and operations are examined as controllable functions within an organization from which strategies can be enacted to affect a firm’s stakeholders. The prior research in these areas is examined to identify potential research opportunities in marketing while also offering a series of representative research questions that can help guide future research in marketing.     

Factors affecting the long-term survival of eBay ventures: a longitudinal study

With 40% of the world able to access the internet, online marketplaces provide the small entrepreneur with a hitherto incomprehensible opportunity to reach a global audience with very low barriers to entry and low risk. Yet, academic research has not studied the factors unique to online businesses that affect their long-term survival. This study is the first of its kind that does so using data gathered from eBay’s feedback system in 2004, 2009, and 2013. The results present data on the rate of discontinuance of eBay ventures. Further, a logistic regression analysis suggests that unique factors such as venture size, age, and feedback reputation positively influence the likelihood of long-term survival of an eBay venture. Based on these results and the ensuing discussion, implications for researchers and practitioners are provided.     

Effects of Country-of-Manufacture and Brand Image on Korean Consumers' Purchase Intention

ABSTRACT

In this study, a theoretical framework is developed to explain the differential effects of country-of-manufacture (COM) and brand image on the cognitive, affective, and behavioral components of Koreans' consumer decision making. Although effects are product specific, findings, overall, indicate that brand image has a stronger effect than COM on Koreans' perceptions of hybrid global products. Moving the production of an electronic product (TV) to a developing country, however, negatively affected Koreans' evaluation of product performance, prestige (brand and technical), and purchase attitudes. The findings have interesting marketing implications for hybrid global brands and contribute to building a theory of COM.     

Enigmatic exchange mechanisms in modern societies: Community and business barter and international countertrade

Modem domestic barter systems are operating in Australia and other high-income countries at the local community level, and at the national level for business exchanges. Both governments and firms practise countertrade at the international level. These exchange regimes appear to have become institutionalised in a macromarketing system which is organised on the primacy of market exchange based on price as the coordinating device. In this paper, explanations for this enigma are presented with a particular emphasis on the Australian context.     

Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using household surveys. These questions are conceptually difficult. Answering them requires elaborate cognitive and social processes, and often respondents report only their “best” guesses and/or estimates, using more or less sophisticated heuristics. A large body of literature in psychology and survey research shows that as a result, responses to such questions may be severely biased. In this paper, (1) we describe some of the problems that are typically encountered, (2) provide some empirical illustrations of these biases, and (3) develop a framework for conceptualizing survey response behavior and for integrating structural models of response behavior into the statistical analysis of the underlying economic behavior.     

Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance

We investigate firms that stop providing earnings guidance (“stoppers”) either by publicly announcing their decision (“announcers”) or doing so quietly (“quiet stoppers”). Relative to firms that continue guiding, stoppers have poorer prior performance, more uncertain operating environments, and fewer informed investors. Announcers commit to non-disclosure because they (i) do not expect to report future good news or (ii) have lower incentives to guide due to the presence of long-term investors. The three-day return around the announcement is negative. Stoppers subsequently experience increases in analyst forecast dispersion and decreases in forecast accuracy but no change in return volatility or analyst following.