Financial instability and the real economy

Summary The paper deals with three different areas of the financial sphere: national moneys, exchange rates and financial claims, markets and institutions. For each of them, it tries to identify the main forms of instability which may occur, their causes and consequences for the real economy. Depending on the area concerned, the forms of instability include inflation, fluctuations and misalignments in interest rates, exchange rates and asset prices and finally solvency and liquidity crises of institutions. It is concluded that, over the last fifteen years, significant progress has been made in the policy framework to counteract instabilities in the national and monetary spheres. The conclusion is more mixed with regard to the structure of financial markets.[/p]We are grateful to Julian Alworth, Svein Andresen, Gavin Bingham, Joe Bisignano, Michael Hutchison and Paul van den Bergh for useful comments.     

What a Difference Immigration Policy Makes: A Comparison of PISA Scores in Europe and Traditional Countries of Immigration

Abstract. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the importance of different immigration policies associated with corresponding migration backgrounds, command of national languages and intergenerational mobility, for the PISA school performance of teenagers living in European countries (France, Finland, Germany, United Kingdom and Sweden) and traditional countries of immigration (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US). Econometric results show that the influence of the socioeconomic background of parents differs strongly across nations, with the highest impact found for Germany, the UK and US, whereas intergenerational transmission of educational attainment is less likely in Scandinavian countries and in Canada. Moreover, for all countries our estimations imply that for students with a migration background a key for catching up is the language spoken at home. We conclude that educational policy should focus on integration of immigrant children in schools and preschools, with particular emphasis on language skills at the early stage of childhood.     

Differing World-Views and Collective Action: The Case of Research

This essay combines constitutional choice and the sociologyof science. People do not only differ in preferences but alsoin worldviews. In order to steer research, society needs a basicsocial contract establishing a triple smallest common denominator.First: the provision with malleable resources is the best approximationto a common good to strive for. Second: formal procedures shouldbe used to determine the facts relevant to the question. Third:the maximization of malleable resources is the closest approximationto the incentives of those involved. If a hypothetical constitutionalassembly reaches an agreement on these points, it can designappropriate rules for research.     

Schumpeter's circular flow,learning by doing and cyclical growth

A two-sector growth model with endogenous technical change is presented. Concerning technical change, we assume that it is reflected by increases in the stock of human capital which are acquired through learning by doing. As a result, it turns out that transitory or, using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, persistent oscillations of the economic variables may be the outcome. Thus we are able to show that learning mechanisms alone may be sufficient to destroy the circular flow as described by Schumpeter.     

German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Levels, International Trade and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs

Abstract. This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways, e.g. by using multifactor modelling instead of augmented Capital Asset Pricing Model, application of moving window panel regressions and orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk. A further innovation lies in testing the theoretical implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and economic exposure. Based on time series and panel data of German Deutsche Aktien Xchange companies, Deutsche Mark/dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/gross domestic product (GDP) and negatively affected by imports/GDP. Moreover, as expected from theoretical findings, firm values and exchange rate exposure are significantly reduced by adjustment costs depending on the distance of the exchange rate from the expected long-run mean.     

Linear cumulative prospect theory with applications to portfolio selection and insurance demand

Abstract The present paper combines loss attitudes and linear utility by providing an axiomatic analysis of corresponding preferences in a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) framework. In a sense we derive a two-sided variant of Yaari’s dual theory, i.e., nonlinear probability weights in the presence of linear utility. The first important difference is that utility may have a kink at the status quo, which allows for the exhibition of loss aversion. Also, we may have different probability weighting functions for gains than for losses. We apply the model to both portfolio selection and insurance demand. Our results show that CPT with linear utility has more realistic implications than the dual theory since it implies only a weakened variant of plunging. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B08, 91B28, 91B30 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D81, G11, G22     

Income Redistribution with Well-Informed Local Governments

This paper examines the problem of redistributing incomeacross jurisdictions and to mobile workers within jurisdictionswhen local governments have better information than the centralgovernment about local production conditions. Under the centralgovernments optimal policy, the subsidies or taxes that localgovernments provide to mobile workers normally depend on whetherthese governments are net recipients or net donors of interjurisdictionalincome transfers. Moreover, the public-input decisions of somelocal governments are distorted. The analysis demonstrates thatit may not be desirable to harmonize social policies across jurisdictions,even when the beneficiaries are quite mobile.     

Dortmunder Institut für Zeitungsforschung wird 80 Jahre alt / Gabriele Toepser-Ziegert leitet das Haus in die Zukunft

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Collaborative Prototyping: Cross‐Fertilization of Knowledge in Prototype‐Driven Problem Solving

This paper presents an inductive study that shows how collaborative prototyping across functional, hierarchical, and organizational boundaries can improve the overall prototyping process. Our combined action research and case study approach provides new insights into how collaborative prototyping can provide a platform for prototype‐driven problem solving in early new product development (NPD). Our findings have important implications for how to facilitate multistakeholder collaboration in prototyping and problem solving, and more generally for how to organize collaborative and open innovation processes. Our analysis reveals two levels of prototyping. Besides the more formal managerial level, we identify the informal designer level, where the actual practice of prototyping takes place. On this level, collaborative prototyping transforms the act of prototyping from an activity belonging exclusively to the domain of design engineers to an activity integral to NPD, with participants from within the organization (different functions and managers) and from outside (consultants and users). In effect, this collapses the discrete steps in the prototyping process (at the managerial level) to an essentially continuous process of iterative problem solving (at the designer level) that is centered around the collaborative prototype, which allows participants to see their suggestions implemented and exposing them to the design constraints. The study, moreover, shows how, at various stages of the prototyping process, the actual prototype was used as a tool for communication or development, thus serving as a platform for the cross‐fertilization of knowledge. In this way, collaborative prototyping leads to a better balance between functionality and usability; it translates usability problems into design changes, and it detects emerging usability problems through active engagement and experimentation. As such, the collaborative prototype acts as a boundary object to represent, understand, and transform knowledge across functional, hierarchical, and organizational boundaries. Our study also identifies some constraints in involving the appropriate stakeholders at the right time. The paper specifically elaborates on the role of users in collaborative prototyping, which is important in order to cover all phases of the problem‐solving cycle but triggers an interesting challenge due to the “reverse empathy” that a user may develop for the design constraints—parallel to the designer empathy for the user context. Finally, our study shows that despite the continuous nature of the (designer) practice of prototyping, there are certain windows of opportunities (at the managerial level) during which the collaborative prototyping approach actually leads to changes in the product design.