International trade and finance: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-1930

Do international trade and finance flow together? In a variety of theoretical models, trade and finance can be shown to have the potential to be substitutes or complements, so the matter must be resolved empirically. We study trade and financial flows from the United Kingdom from 1870 to 1913 and the United States in the interwar years. These were the two major capital exporters and key financial centers in each era. We find that trade and finance were robustly correlated for each case. We consider simultaneity issues. We also discuss evidence from the British Empire which casts doubt on the idea that trade is a punishment device in the event of a default.     

Öffentliches und Geheimes

In the second half of 2009, the entire media agenda in Germany was dominated by the swine flu, next to the German Federal Parliament elections. Criticism was voiced in the media against the pharmaceutical industry for lobbying the nationwide swine flu vaccination, which was widely considered nothing but a product of the industry’s lobbying power. In order to avoid the usual interviews with lobbyists, we attempted to apply a new methodological framework approach in analysing lobbying processes and key stakeholders in the public sphere—and outside. Crucial to the diversified approach, which involves quantitative content analysis of media coverage and press releases, are interviews with journalists, lobbyists’ network analysis and internet research on biographies. Although a conspiracy could not be conclusively proven, the results do indicate associations that validate the criticism of the industry’s lobbying activities.     

Ursachen geschlechtsspezifischer Kostenunterschiede in der Privaten Krankenversicherung: Eine empirische Untersuchung unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Anforderungen des AGG

The new “Allgemeine Gleichbehandlungsgesetz” (General Equal Treatment Act) also influences the premium calculation of the German Private Health Insurance to antagonize gender discrimination in premiums. The higher premiums in the Private Health Insurance women pay are caused by higher expectation of life, by the risk of fertility, and by higher individual health-care costs for health services. We study how strong the gender influence in health-care costs of men and women are and if they are influenced by the factors mentioned above. We analyse if there is any gender discrimination in premium calculation in the Private Health Insurance. The results show that after eliminating the factors only a small reduction of premiums is found. We still find a cost difference between women and men. This difference can be explained by the different usage of health services but this depends less on the gender rather on individual psychosocial factors.     

New Methods for Forecasting Inflation,Applied to the US*

Models for the 12‐month‐ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain‐weighted consumer expenditure deflator, are estimated for 1974–98 and subsequent pseudo out‐of‐sample forecasting performance is examined. Alternative forecasting approaches for different information sets are compared with benchmark univariate autoregressive models, and substantial out‐performance is demonstrated including against Stock and Watson's unobserved components‐stochastic volatility model. Three key ingredients to the out‐performance are: including equilibrium correction component terms in relative prices; introducing nonlinearities to proxy state‐dependence in the inflation process and replacing the information criterion, commonly used in VARs to select lag length, with a ‘parsimonious longer lags’ parameterization. Forecast pooling or averaging also improves forecast performance.     

A macro-framework for successful development banks

The large-scale failures of development banks in the 1970s and 1980s meant that they all but disappeared from the development agenda. However, there are still a large number of development banks worldwide that operate with various degrees of success. Some governments are also looking to re-establish such banks to address the shortage of finance for higher-risk market segments. To avoid a repeat of the earlier failures, government policy needs to be informed by an objective framework for the success of these banks. This article, based on economic theory and informed by case studies, outlines such a framework. It addresses the following six dimensions of these banks: enabling environment, mandate, regulation and supervision, governance and management, financial sustainability and performance assessment. Development banking remains a risky initiative but, managed appropriately, and using this framework, it can help achieve development objectives.     

Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence

Africa's disappointing economic performance, the East Asianfinancial crisis, and the weak record of the former Soviet Unionhave focused attention on the role of institutions in determininga economic growth. This article critically reviews the literaturethat tries to link quantitative measures of institutions, suchas civil liberties and property rights, with growth of grossdomestic product across countries and over time. An importantdistinction is made between indicators that measure the performanceor quality of institutions and those that measure politicaland social characteristics and political instability. The evidencesuggests a link between the quality of institutions and investmentand growth, but the evidence is by no means robust.      

High‐Performance Work Systems in Professional Service Firms: Examining the Practices‐Resources‐Uses‐Performance Linkage

Professional service firms (PSFs) play an important role in the knowledge‐based economy. Their success is highly dependent on their people, the knowledge resources they possess, and how they use these resources. However, how to systematically manage human resources to attain high performance is not fully understood. This study addresses this issue by investigating the linkage mechanisms through which high‐performance work systems (HPWS) influence the performance of PSFs. We integrate resource‐based and dynamic capability theories in order to identify and investigate two intervening mechanisms that link HR practices to firm performance. The first mechanism is the intellectual capital resources comprising the human, social, and organizational capital that HPWS create. The second mechanism is the uses to which both HPWS and resources can be applied, operationalized as organizational ambidexterity, the simultaneous exploitation of existing knowledge and exploration of new knowledge. These mechanisms are hypothesized to link HPWS to firm performance in the form of a practices‐resources‐uses‐performance linkage model. Results from a longitudinal study of 93 accounting firms support this linkage model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.