The power of positivity? The influence of positive psychological capital language on crowdfunding performance

We extend the entrepreneurship literature to include positive psychological capital — an individual or organization's level of psychological resources consisting of hope, optimism, resilience, and confidence — as a salient signal in crowdfunding. We draw from the costless signaling literature to argue that positive psychological capital language usage enhances crowdfunding performance. We examine 1726 crowdfunding campaigns from Kickstarter, finding that entrepreneurs conveying positive psychological capital experience superior fundraising performance. Human capital moderates this relationship while social capital does not, suggesting that costly signals may, at times, enhance the influence of costless signals. Post hoc analyses suggest findings generalize across crowdfunding types, but not to IPOs.     

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

Entrepreneurial Hustle: Navigating Uncertainty and Enrolling Venture Stakeholders through Urgent and Unorthodox Action

Entrepreneurs need to act under conditions of uncertainty and resource constraints to bring new, often-unrecognizable products to market and convince an unknown set of stakeholders to support their endeavours. The type of action entrepreneurs take to navigate uncertain entrepreneurial contexts is underspecified. We analysed 48 interviews with entrepreneurs to inductively identify an action-oriented construct we labelled as entrepreneurial hustle – an entrepreneur’s urgent, unorthodox actions that are intended to be useful in addressing immediate challenges and opportunities under conditions of uncertainty. In a follow-up study, we use an experimental vignette approach to assess the impact of an entrepreneur’s hustle on venture stakeholders. Findings suggest that entrepreneurial hustle positively influences stakeholder perceptions of the entrepreneur’s leadership effectiveness and a venture’s legitimacy, mediated by perceptions of the entrepreneur’s ability-based trustworthiness. We conclude that entrepreneurial hustle is a fundamental behaviour that enables entrepreneurs to enrol new venture stakeholders and lead their entrepreneurial efforts.     

Long haul freight network design using shipper–carrier freight flow prediction: A California network improvement case study

Transportation network design is a method for analyzing the interactive benefits of transportation projects applied to a network. In this paper, a network design model is developed for long haul freight movements which are represented by relationships between shippers and carriers. Additionally, an explicit capacity constraint is used to divert traffic volume from congested links. A case study based on the California transportation network is implemented to examine the effectiveness of this model when applied to a large network. A geographic information system is used to facilitate data management and analysis of the results.     

Knocking at the gate: The path to publication for entrepreneurship experiments through the lens of gatekeeping theory

We draw on gatekeeping theory to explore the individual and routine-level criticisms that entrepreneurship experimentalists receive during the review process. Using a multi-study approach, we categorize common gatekeeping themes and present illustrative critiques derived from a unique sample of decision letters and a supplemental survey of entrepreneurship editors. In combination, we extend gatekeeping theory by considering how it applies to the scholarly domain, contribute to the literature by exploring an alternative theoretical explanation as to why entrepreneurship experiments might fail to survive the review process, and finally, provide contextualized recommendations for authors and reviewers of experimental research.     

Out of control or right on the money? Funder self-efficacy and crowd bias in equity crowdfunding

Our findings extend the entrepreneurship literature by highlighting the mechanism through which self-efficacy can hinder rather than enhance performance in entrepreneurial settings. Using two complementary experimental studies and a third quasi-experimental field study on equity crowdfunding decisions, we demonstrate that self-efficacy is negatively related to decision-making performance. This relationship is mediated by reduced searching effort. Our research also indicates that high self-efficacy funders tend to exhibit a “crowd bias” whereby they over-weight the opinions of the crowd, increasing the likelihood that they will fund poor quality ventures when such ventures are favored by the crowd. We introduce the term crowd bias and explore its effects, establishing that social indicators in the form of crowd cues can exasperate the negative effects of self-efficacy.     

Projecting total costs and health consequences of increasing mt-sDNA utilization for colorectal cancer screening from the payer and integrated delivery network perspectives

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate total costs and health consequences of a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program with colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and expanded use of multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA) from the perspectives of Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs) and payers in the United States.

Materials and methods: We developed a budget impact and cost-consequence model that simulates CRC screening for eligible 50- to 75-year-old adults. A status quo scenario and an increased mt-sDNA scenario were modeled. The status quo includes the current screening mix of colonoscopy (83%), FIT (11%), and mt-sDNA (6%) modalities. The increased mt-sDNA scenario increases mt-sDNA utilization to 28% over 10 years. Costs for both the IDN and the payer perspectives incorporated diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies, adverse events (AEs), and CRC treatment. The IDN perspective included screening program costs, composed of direct nonmedical (e.g. patient navigation) and indirect (e.g. administration) costs. It was assumed that IDNs do not incur the costs for stool-based screening tests or bowel preparation for colonoscopies.

Results: In a population of one million covered lives, the 10-year incremental cost savings incurred by increasing mt-sDNA utilization was $16.2 M for the IDN and $3.3 M for the payer. The incremental savings per-person-per-month were $0.14 and $0.03 for the IDN and payer, respectively. For both perspectives, increased diagnostic colonoscopy costs were offset by reductions in screening colonoscopies, surveillance colonoscopies, and AEs. Extending screening eligibility to 45- to 75-year-olds slightly decreased the overall cost savings.

Limitations: The natural history of CRC was not simulated; however, many of the utilized parameters were extracted from highly vetted natural history models or published literature. Direct nonmedical and indirect costs for CRC screening programs are applied on a per-person-per modality basis, whereas in reality some of these costs may be fixed.

Conclusions: Increased mt-sDNA utilization leads to fewer colonoscopies, less AEs, and lower overall costs for both IDNs and payers, reducing overall screening program costs and increasing the number of cancers detected while maintaining screening adherence rates over 10 years.     

Charges in the Industrial Water Sector: Comparison Between Ireland and Spain

The European Treaty supports the application of the polluter pays principle in all environmental policies including the Water Framework Directive. This paper assesses the efficiency of water-charging systems in two European regions. The regions examined are the South west region of Ireland and the Navarre region in Spain which were selected because they are similar in terms of economic indicators but different in terms of water pricing structures. The paper describes the development and application of a simple model to analyse data on water-charging systems from these two regions. We present the results of a detailed scenario-based investigation illustrating the differences between experience, composition and basis, impact and constraints on the application of water charges for both regions. The key findings are that existing water charges do not provide incentives for users to use water efficiently and thereby do not contribute effectively to the environmental objectives of the Water Framework Directive.