An Approach to Adjusting Analysts' Consensus Forecasts for Selection Bias*

Many recent empirical studies have concluded that analysts' earnings forecasts are optimistic on average. In this paper, we attempt to undo the effect of one potential source of optimistic bias in analysts' earnings forecasts. Assuming forecasts come from a truncated normal distribution, we estimate the “true” population mean using maximum likelihood. We find that our estimates of earnings are more accurate and less biased than standard measures of sample mean and median. However, we do not find a closer relationship between excess market returns and forecast errors from our maximum likelihood estimate than from the sample mean. This may suggest that the market does not fully incorporate analysts' incentives in generating expectations about future earnings.     

Cost of Protection of the U. S. Wool Sector

The present system of protection of the U. S. wool sector affords an opportunity for examining the interdependence of intermediate and final goods sectors when both are protected. It also illustrates the cumulative nature of protective devices.
In this study an intermediate good model is employed to investigate the cost to the United States of maintaining the present method of protection for raw wool and wool products¹. The concept of a net tariff is utilized to represent the actual protection afforded to a final good when its inputs are also protected. This net tariff is related to the effective protective rate which has been frequently mentioned in the literature. It is, however, more useful when the question of cost allocation between sectors is under consideration. The intermediate good model also permits an estimation of the gain from the removal of protection in either the raw wool or wool products sector as well as an estimation of the gain from adopting alternative methods of protection such as deficiency payments.     

CONDITIONAL DEMAND FUNCTIONS,SEPARABILITY, AND THE LENGTH OF RUN: SOME NOTES FOR THE APPLIED RESEARCHER OF HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR1

This paper introduces the concepts of conditional demand functions, the length of run, and separability to consumer and family economists as useful tools for empirical research on household behaviour. The relationships among demand, expenditure, and consumption functions are sketched. Then conditional demand functions are explained, their uses in empirical work addressed, and several applications discussed. The concepts of the length of run and of separability are explained in terms of conditional demand and their implications for and applications to empirical research on household behaviour treated.     

Skill Level and Recreation Conflict among Skiers and Snowboarders

This paper examines out-group and in-group normative beliefs about unacceptable behaviors (conflict) reported by skiers and snowboarders with varying skill levels. Individuals with greater skills in skiing and snowboarding were predicted to experience more conflict than those with less ability in the activity. Across all skill levels, skiers and snowboarders were hypothesized to report more out-group than in-group conflict. Data were obtained from surveys (n = 595) distributed at five ski resorts in Colorado. Skiers and snowboarders rated their skill level on a four-point scale (beginner, intermediate, advanced, or expert). Multiple item indices were created to measure observed unacceptable behaviors between skiers and snowboarders. Analyses supported both hypotheses. As perceived skill level increased, out-group and in-group conflict increased for both skiers and snowboarders. Within each skill level, skiers reported more unacceptable behaviors by snowboarders than with fellow skiers, and snowboarders also identified more out-group than in-group conflict.