Manipulating uncertainty

Uncertainty about the distributional incidence of policy reforms may, if it impinges selectively on particular subsets of voters, alter the direction of the majority vote. This possibility should be a matter of special concern when subject to potential manipulation by a purposeful agent such as a Leviathan-like bureaucracy. This paper discusses a constitutional defense against such prospect. This paper was prepared for a conference on “Constitutional Status Quo and Prospects for Change” held at George Mason University in April, 1994. I am grateful to participants in that conference and to my colleagues at Nova, especially to Mário Páscoa, for their comments and criticisms. I also benefited from comments of an anonymous referee. Responsibility for errors remains with me.     

Betting Big On Consumer Gadgets

Venture Capitalists even work closely with the retailer of Best Buy Co.. They try to understand consumer trends and sometimes even get the retailer＇s advice about investing in promising young companies.     

Negligent hiring: Reducing the risk

In recent years, the responsibility of employers to hire people who are not dangerous or violent has been heightened by the tort, negligent hiring. The courts have ruled that certain employers owe a special duty to employees and third parties (e.g., customers or clients) to protect them from the harmful or criminal acts of other employees. This article contrasts negligent hiring to respondent superior and negligent entrustment, describes the components of negligent hiring, and reviews important legal cases. The article also discusses how employers can minimize the risk of negligent hiring through prudent human resource practices.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

Obeying the rules: Accounting for regulatory compliance costs in the United Kingdom

The U.K. Government has embarked on a deregulatory programme aimed at ‘liberating’ business from, inter alia, onerous regulatory compliance costs. In doing so it has developed and utilized an accounting-based technique known as Compliance Cost Assessment (CCA). This paper describes and analyses this technique, and demonstrates that CCA has been used as a perceived rational tool to counter regulatory growth and to privilege certain interests in society.     

The interactive effects of organizational and leadership career management support on job satisfaction and turnover intention

In the organizational career management literature, scholars have focused on career management policies, with little attention given to practices that can vary within organizations. And despite its recognized importance, research on the role of leaders in the career management process is also scant. In this study, we investigate the effects of career management practices (OCPs) and leadership career support (LCS) on employee attitudes. Grounded on coping theory, we propose that career support received from line managers can be particularly consequential when OCPs are lacking. We analyze the moderating effects of LCS on the relationship between OCPs and both job satisfaction and turnover intention in a sample of employees from a large Brazilian organization, applying multiple regression analyses. Results showed that OCPs and LCS are positively related to job satisfaction and that OCPs are negatively related to turnover intention. In addition, we confirmed that LCS moderates the relationship between OCPs and both job satisfaction and turnover intention. Finally, we observed that the relationship between OCPs and turnover intention is mediated by job satisfaction. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Empowering the new traveller: storytelling as a co-creative behaviour in tourism

The work proposes a theoretical and empirical model that investigates how storytelling is a powerful co-creative behaviour in tourism. The contribution takes a step forward from the classical theories on co-creation and develops the case where consumers act almost independently from traditional brands. The empirical study adopts an interpretive approach to analyse online travel reviews. Data are interpreted through Yi and Gong's model on consumer value co-creation behaviour [(2013). Customer value co-creation behavior: Scale development and validation. Journal of Business Research, 66, 127], the Phase dynamics theory of travel epiphany behaviour [Woodside, A. G., & Megehee, C. M. (2010). Advancing consumer behaviour theory in tourism via visual narrative art. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(5), 418–431], and the Archetype theory [Woodside, A. G., Sood, S., & Miller, K. E. (2008). When consumers and brands talk: Storytelling theory and research. Psychology & Marketing, 25(2), 97–145]. The study indicates that storytelling behaviours in value co-creation activate a ‘customer delight' response, which is an affect-based construct.     

Some Variants of Constrained Estimation in Finite Population Sampling

This is a review article that unifies several important examples using constrained optimisation techniques. The basic tools are three simple mathematical optimisation results subject to certain constraints. Applications include calibration, benchmarking in small area estimation and imputation. A final illustration is constrained optimisation under a general divergence loss.