Optimal portfolios under worst-case scenarios

In standard portfolio theories such as Mean–Variance optimization, expected utility theory, rank dependent utility heory, Yaari’s dual theory and cumulative prospect theory, the worst outcomes for optimal strategies occur when the market declines (e.g. during crises), which is at odds with the needs of many investors. Hence, we depart from the traditional settings and study optimal strategies for investors who impose additional constraints on their final wealth in the states corresponding to a stressed financial market. We provide a framework that maintains the stylized features of the SP/A theory while dealing with the goal of security in a more flexible way. Preferences become state-dependent, and we assess the impact of these preferences on trading decisions. We construct optimal strategies explicitly and show how they outperform traditional diversified strategies under worst-case scenarios.     

Multiperiod Optimal Investment-Consumption Strategies with Mortality Risk and Environment Uncertainty

Abstract

In this article we investigate three related investment-consumption problems for a risk-averse investor: (1) an investment-only problem that involves utility from only terminal wealth, (2) an investment-consumption problem that involves utility from only consumption, and (3) an extended investment-consumption problem that involves utility from both consumption and terminal wealth. Although these problems have been studied quite extensively in continuous-time frameworks, we focus on discrete time. Our contributions are (1) to model these investmentconsumption problems using a discrete model that incorporates the environment risk and mortality risk, in addition to the market risk that is typically considered, and (2) to derive explicit expressions of the optimal investment-consumption strategies to these modeled problems. Furthermore, economic implications of our results are presented. It is reassuring that many of our findings are consistent with the well-known results from the continuous-time models, even though our models have the additional features of modeling the environment uncertainty and the uncertain exit time.     

Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing problem of equity-linked annuities and variable annuities under a regimeswitching model when the dynamic of the market value of a reference asset is driven by a generalized geometric Brownian motion model with regime switching. In particular, we assume that regime switching over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite number state space representing economy states. We use the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for fair valuation in the incomplete market setting. The paper is complemented with some numerical examples to highlight the implications of our model on pricing these guarantees.     

Optimal insurance in the presence of reinsurance

This paper studies an optimal insurance and reinsurance design problem among three agents: policyholder, insurer, and reinsurer. We assume that the preferences of the parties are given by distortion risk measures, which are equivalent to dual utilities. By maximizing the dual utility of the insurer and jointly solving the optimal insurance and reinsurance contracts, it is found that a layering insurance is optimal, with every layer being borne by one of the three agents. We also show that reinsurance encourages more insurance, and is welfare improving for the economy. Furthermore, it is optimal for the insurer to charge the maximum acceptable insurance premium to the policyholder. This paper also considers three other variants of the optimal insurance/reinsurance models. The first two variants impose a limit on the reinsurance premium so as to prevent insurer to reinsure all its risk. An optimal solution is still layering insurance, though the insurer will have to retain higher risk. Finally, we study the effect of competition by permitting the policyholder to insure its risk with an insurer, a reinsurer, or both. The competition from the reinsurer dampens the price at which an insurer could charge to the policyholder, although the optimal indemnities remain the same as the baseline model. The reinsurer will however not trade with the policyholder in this optimal solution.     

Effects of Export Duty Structure on the Performance of the Malaysian Palm Oil Industry

This study examines the impact of the abatement of the export duty on the Malaysian palm oil industry performance. The simulation results show that the impact of reductions in the export duty rates and the impact of increases in the threshold prices on the Malaysian palm oil industry have the same impact but with different magnitudes. Even the simulated results indicate that the policy of further reductions in the Malaysian export duty will promote its positive effects on the local palm oil industry; however, the impact is shown to not be significant. The further reduction of the export tax is very constrained and believed to no longer be the most effective policy in enhancing the competitiveness of local palm oil industry in the future. Hence, policymakers have to be aware of the possibility that the reduction of the export tax may no longer be an effective sustainable approach in facilitating the development of Malaysian palm oil industry.     

Individualization and Marketization of Responsibility for Gender Equality: The Case of Female Managers in China

This article investigates the question of where the responsibility for promoting gender equality resides in the Chinese employment context. Utilizing Acker's (2006) inequality regimes framework, the study explores women's underrepresentation in management roles in China and explains the persistence of gender inequalities in managerial echelons of Chinese organizations. Based on 30 interviews with female managers, the findings demonstrate the marketization and individualization of gender equality in organizational activity. The existing gender inequality, and the lack of responsibility for tackling it, has been either legitimized by eluding to the commercial‐only focus of organizations or rendered invisible through a belief in individual choice as the determining factor of career progression for women. Gender inequality in management is also maintained through the compliance of female managers themselves with the presumed legitimacy of gender‐based differential access to managerial roles. References to culture and tradition, market forces, competitive pressures, and individual choices by female managers are often made in explaining the unequal career paths and outcomes for men and women in their organizations. Our findings contribute to the human resource management (HRM) literature by framing macrosocietal context as a dynamic and endogenous aspect of management of human resources in organizations and provide novel insights into the interplay between HRM and societal context. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Some Economics of Audit Market Reform

The purpose of audit market reforms since 2001 is to restore public confidence in the institution of auditing based on two considerations: (1) ensuring audit quality; and (2) controlling the ‘adverse effect of competition’ in audit supply. Market reforms for audit quality are delivered through a package of prescribed actions motivated by an analytical relationship between audit quality and its possible determinants: (1) limiting audit tenure through a combination of mandatory firm rotation, partner rotation and re‐tendering; (2) limiting provision of non‐audit services (NAS) by the incumbent auditor; and (3) joint auditing and empowering the audit committee to enhance audit quality. This paper examines the competing independence hypothesis and expertise hypothesis that produce ambiguous theoretical relationships for audit quality–audit tenure and the independence‐provision of NAS. We then review whether the empirical literature resolves these conundrums. We also review the usefulness of joint auditing and empowering the audit committee to improve audit quality in the context of audit market reform.     

在近岸采油装置上实施集成风险检查系统

介绍中东国家把集成风险检查和检查系统用于近岸油田装置。根据详细的风险检查分析和过去的检查记录,对所选择的设备采用无损检测技术实施检查。资产数据、检查记录和有关文件都集中保存在计算机系统中。这样有能力保管和查看不同种类的文件和图样。这个系统能生成和监管维修和检查工作单,并能与企业其他系统进行交流。有一个知识数据库用于资产整合活动,与MS Excel的输入/输出功能进行数据交换也更加方便。     

Do Asian stock market prices follow martingales? Evidence from spectral shape tests

This paper examines the martingale hypothesis for five Asian stock markets using the spectral shape tests of Durlauf (1991). Unlike the variance ratio test employed in previous studies (eg, Panet al, 1991), the spectral shape tests are consistent againstall stationary alternatives to the martingale null.The spectral shape tests were applied to daily and weekly returns on the stock indices of Thailand, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan over a period of 17 years. The results show that the martingale null is rejected for most markets. There is some evidence that the rejections may be due to low frequency or long memory influences.The authors are lecturers, Department of Finance and Banking, National University of Singapore. This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Asian-Pacific Financial Markets, September 9–11, 1993 in Singapore. We have benefited greatly from the comments of Y K Tse and other conference participants.