中国风电产业在国际市场崛起的挑战分析

2010年,以金凤科技、华锐风电为代表的中国风电企业在赢得了快速增长之后展现出加快国际化步伐的态势。尽管现在走出去的中国风电企业仍是少数,但国际化进程已不可避免。本文着重总结了中国风电企业在国际化过程中会面临的挑战,并以美对华301调查为案例,分析了其给中国风电产业带来的风险和影响,从中获得启示,以加快我国新能源产业国际化的步伐。     

我国商业银行流动性过剩的原因及对策分析

本文将从商业银行的角度,对银行流动性过剩这一广受关注的新问题进行较为系统的分析。希望能丰富银行流动性风险管理概念,提高央行货币政策的执行效率,对有效防范银行危机能具有一定的指导意义。     

Tractable Morality

This article discusses five propositions about managerial moral tractability -- that is, a morality that is amenable to the complexity of managers’ continual pressure to decide and act -- in their customer relations. The propositions come from the comparison of three case studies of different types of managers. To analyze the morality of managers, discursive practices of managers are studied. At the end of the article also some consideration is given to “information strategies” of managers, in relation to their tractable morality.Gjalt de Graaf received his Ph.D. at the Rotterdam School of Management of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. He worked for two years as an assistant professor ‘‘strategic management” at the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Currently he works as a post-doc “Integrity of Governance” at the Faculty of Social Sciences of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.     

人民币外汇市场间不对称汇率变动的实证研究

现有关于人民币汇率各市场间关系的研究一般是基于多元GARCH模型,探讨各市场间的线性相关关系,未能考虑各市场间汇率变动可能存在的"不对称效应":面临正(反)向的较大冲击时,各市场汇率变动表现出同步性;而面临反(正)向的较大冲击时,各市场汇率变动不同步。本文运用SJC-Copula-MGARCH模型对人民币汇率境内SPOT市场、境内DF市场和境外NDF市场之间的相依关系进行实证分析,发现境内汇率市场(SPOT市场和DF市场)和境外NDF市场间的联系仍较弱;SPOT-DF市场在面临大的正冲击和负冲击时均表现出较强的联动性,而SPOT-NDF市场和DF-NDF市场在面临大的冲击时汇率变动表现出"不对称效应":在面临大的正冲击(人民币相对贬值)时,境内汇率市场和境外NDF市场汇率变动不同步,当面临大的负冲击(人民币相对升值)时,境内汇率市场和境外NDF市场汇率变动表现出较强的同步性。本文进一步分析了上述"不对称效应"的经济机理,探讨了其经济学含义。     

美国金融危机对中国贸易影响的价格溢出效应分析

金融危机的贸易溢出效应主要是通过价格效应和收入效应实现的。中美两国存在密切的互补型贸易关系,本文就美国金融危机通过价格效应对我国贸易状况的影响进行了实证研究,并与收入效应的影响进行对比分析。研究发现,美国金融危机对我国贸易溢出的价格效应显著,而收入效应较小;美国金融危机对中国贸易的溢出效应主要是显著影响了出口,而对进口的影响较为短暂。     

国有商业银行信贷评级模型的构建及实证检验

信贷评级是信贷风险管理的前提,目前我国国有商业银行都采用这一方式管理信贷风险.本文在对国有商业银行当前信用评级方法存在问题和国内外相关研究成果进行分析的基础上,提出了构建国有商业银行内部信用评级模型,提高信贷风险管理水平的建议.作者利用贷款历史数据,通过因子分析和聚类分析等方法构建内部信用评级模型;通过因子分析方法构建的模型使评级指标体系更加科学、合理,避免了反映风险信息的冗余与遗漏;聚类分析使评级模型直接与违约概率挂钩,度量风险的准确性进一步提高.论文最后对模型进行了实证分析,使其有效性得到了检验.     

Designing a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism for a European Monetary Fund

The establishment of a European Monetary Fund (EMF) enjoys increasing academic and political support, though its advocates do not necessarily agree on the purpose and functions of such an institution. This paper aims to examine the features of the EMF that are relevant to sovereign debt restructuring. We argue that a European sovereign debt restructuring mechanism would be a feasible and useful tool in a crisis. It would facilitate private sector involvement and convey all the advantages that pre-defined procedures offer compared to ad hoc solutions in dealing with a crisis.     

Tariff-mediated network effects versus strategic discounting: Evidence from German mobile telecommunications

Mobile telecommunication operators routinely charge subscribers lower prices for calls on their own network than for calls to other networks (on-net discounts). Studies on tariff-mediated network effects suggest this is due to large operators using on-net discounts to damage smaller rivals. Alternatively, research on strategic discounting suggests that small operators use on-net discounts to advertise with low on-net prices. We test the relative strength of these effects using data on tariff setting in German mobile telecommunications between 2001 and 2009. We find that large operators are more likely to offer tariffs with on-net discounts but there is no consistently significant difference in the magnitude of discounts. Our results suggest that tariff-mediated network effects are the main cause of on-net discounts.