Measuring the welfare costs of EU accessionThe case of VAT reform in Bulgaria

We analyze possible reforms to the Bulgarian VAT system, evaluating revenue-neutral reallocations of goods to tax bands within the existing 2-rate structure. We investigate the sensitivity of the results to behavioural response and imperfect tax recovery. We find only a weak case for the use of non-uniform VAT rate structures for redistributional purposes. Selective VAT exemptions can produce approximate welfare gains equivalent to a general price fall of much less than 1 per cent for plausible specifications of social welfare.
JEL classification: D31, J31, P24.     

Social Security, Poverty and Economic Transition: An Analysis for Bulgaria 1992–96

The paper addresses the issues of poverty and social security in a transitional environment on the basis of recent economic developments in Bulgaria. Special emphasis is placed on the need for a new type of social safety net stemming from the radical changes in the political and economic system. The evolution of the social security system in Bulgaria during the transition is analysed focusing on such elements as the pension system, unemployment benefits, child allowances, etc. The empirical analysis is based on extensive use of data from the Bulgarian Household Budget Surveys during the period 1992–1996. Poverty in Bulgaria is measured using different poverty measurements and some quantitative results showing the changing dimensions of poverty in the transition period are presented and discussed in the paper.EES or e-mail at Corresponding author. E-mail:     

Sweetness and Power – Public Policies and the ‘Biofuels Frenzy’

Sweetness and Power – Public Policies and the ‘Biofuels Frenzy’ In the last decade, there has been a huge policy‐led expansion in biofuels production and consumption. This paper presents some of the findings of a funded research project which has sought to identify the drivers of biofuels policies over this period. It focuses on the EU, US and Brazil which, together, represent about 90 per cent of global biofuels markets. Biofuels policies have three key drivers: as a partial substitute for fossil fuels, to lower greenhouse gas emissions; as a way of improving energy security, by diversifying away from fossil fuels and from the limited number of countries with fossil‐fuel reserves; and as a means of promoting rural development, given the opportunities offered by the production of biofuel feedstocks and their processing into biofuels. One particular challenge for both the EU and US has been to create and sustain a broad coalition of stakeholder interests in support of biofuels and biofuel policies. Both have sought to promote ‘conventional’ biofuels now, whilst trying to aid the development of ‘advanced’ biofuels industries that will address problems with existing technologies. The continued failure to deliver significant quantities of advanced biofuels raises questions for biofuels policymakers going forward, not least dealing with the downsides of conventional biofuels that, so far, have not been mitigated by a successful transition to advanced biofuels.     

Historical Learning in the Design of WTO Rules: The EC Sugar Case

The Uruguay Round Agreement made significant changes to the governance of international trade. Trade rules and dispute settlement mechanisms were altered and a series of specific agreements provided for liberalisation across economic sectors. The Agreement on Agriculture, arguably the most difficult and contentious to negotiate, permitted the continued use of trade‐distorting instruments, both domestically and at the border. Rule‐enforcement in agriculture therefore relies crucially on the clarity of the rules. This paper provides an in‐depth study of a unique and critical case for understanding the new rules: the EC sugar regime. This policy was challenged unsuccessfully under the pre‐Uruguay Round rules, but successfully under the new rules. This case is particularly valuable in allowing us to isolate the effect of the Uruguay Round on agricultural trade disputes: the policy under challenge was essentially unchanged and the legal actions addressed the same concern – excessive export subsidisation. Drawing on primary and secondary materials and interviews with key policy actors, sugar is used to illustrate how those involved in the multilateral process learned from particular rule weaknesses revealed in earlier cases, revising those rules in the Uruguay Round in such a way that dispute panels can more readily and objectively determine rule breaches.     

The Common Agricultural Policy and Its Reform: The Problem of Reconciling Budget and Trade Concerns

In 2008, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reached its fiftieth birthday. It has been a constant factor in directing resources to the EU agricultural sector, but the means of channelling these resources have changed considerably over time. This article charts the evolution of the CAPs principal policy instruments and analyzes the welfare effects of its major reforms. It also analyzes these changes in terms of the institutional context of the principal reform pressures, namely international trade obligations and EU budget concerns. We will show that the link between these two pressures was never one of simple determinism: the CAP and its reform can only be understood in light of these pressures and of endogenous vested interests to the policy. En 2008, la Politique agricole commune (PAC) célèbre ses 50 ans. Cette politique a été un facteur constant de l'orientation des ressources vers le secteur agricole de l'UE, mais les moyens utilisés pour acheminer ces ressources ont changé considérablement au fil du temps. Le présent article retrace l'évolution des principaux instruments de la PAC et analyse les effets de ses grandes réformes sur le bien‐être. Elle analyse aussi ces changements dans le contexte institutionnel des pressions de la réforme, à savoir les obligations commerciales internationales et les préoccupations quant au budget de l'UE. Nous montrons que le lien entre ces deux types de pression n'a jamais été d'un déterminisme simple: la PAC et sa réforme ne peuvent être comprises qu'en examinant ces pressions et les droits acquis endogènes qu'elles génèrent.     

EU Biofuels Sustainability Standards and Certification Systems – How to Seek WTO‐Compatibility

Governments, increasingly, are encouraging the production and consumption of biofuels, as a partial substitute for fossil‐fuel based transport fuels. One reason for this is to contribute to the fight against climate change. Sustainability criteria have been introduced recently by some countries to help ensure biofuels have lower greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels. Concerns have been expressed from various quarters that such criteria could represent World Trade Organisation (WTO)‐incompatible barriers to trade. We, first, question recent contributions to the (mainly legal) academic literature which have sought to find ways of allowing biofuels to be treated differently in trade policy terms, based on whether or not they have been derived from feedstocks produced sustainably. We then draw on the Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement (TBTA) to offer guidance as to how to establish WTO‐compatible sustainability criteria. There is little direct case law to draw on at the design stage, but we argue that if TBTA guidance is followed, a long‐term absence of case law could be taken as an indication that the sustainability criteria established are indeed WTO‐compatible.