Childcare Assistance: Are Subsidies or Tax Credits Better?

We evaluate price subsidies and tax credits for childcare. We focus on partnered women's labour supply, household income and welfare, demand for childcare and government expenditure. Using Australian data, we estimate a joint, discrete structural model of labour supply and childcare demand. We introduce two methodological innovations – a more flexible quantity constraint that total formal and informal childcare hours are at least as large as the mother's labour supply and the explicit inclusion of maternal childcare in the utility function as a proxy for child development. We find that tax credits are more effective than subsidies in terms of increasing average hours worked and household income. However, tax credits disproportionately benefit wealthier and more educated women. Price subsidies, while less efficient, have positive redistributional effects.     

‘Regular’ choice and the weak axiom of stochastic revealed preference

We explore the relation between two ‘rationality conditions’ for stochastic choice behavior: regularity and the weak axiom of stochastic revealed preference (WASRP). We show that WASRP implies regularity, but the converse is not true. We identify a restriction on the domain of the stochastic choice function, which suffices for regularity to imply WASRP. When the universal set of alternatives is finite, this restriction is also necessary for regularity to imply WASRP. Furthermore, we identify necessary and sufficient domain restrictions for regularity to imply WASRP, when the universal set of alternatives is finite and stochastic choice functions are all degenerate. Results in the traditional, deterministic, framework regarding the relation between Chernoff’s condition and the weak axiom of revealed preference follow as special cases. Thus, general conditions are established, under which regularity can substitute for WASRP as the axiomatic foundation for a theory of choice behavior.     

Community and class antagonism

We investigate how vertical unity within a community interacts with horizontal class divisions of an unequal income distribution. Community is conceptualized in terms of a public good to which all those in the community have equal access, but from which outsiders are excluded. We formulate the idea of redistributive tension, or class antagonism, in terms of the costs that poorer individuals would be willing to impose on the rich, to achieve a given gain in personal income. Our conclusion is that the nominal distribution of income could give a misleading picture of tensions in society, both within and across communities. Ideologies of community solidarity may well trump those of class solidarity because of the implicit sharing of community resources brought about by community-specific public goods. Greater economic mobility of particular types may actually exacerbate class tensions instead of attenuating them. We illustrate our theoretical results with a discussion of a number of historical episodes of shifting class tensions and alliances.     

Do Intra-Household Effects Generate the Food Stamp Cash-Out Puzzle?

Previous empirical studies have noted the higher marginal propensity to consume food out of food stamps in the United States, compared to that out of cash income. Analyzing data from U.S. Food Stamp Program participants, we find evidence that this discrepancy may be driven primarily by the behavior of multiple-adult households. Single-adult households show no evidence of any discrepancy. Thus, our results suggest that food stamp and cash income (welfare or market) may have very different impact on the intra-household allocation process, and that this is reflected empirically in the cash-out puzzle.     

A general revealed preference theorem for stochastic demand behavior

Summary. We present a general revealed preference theorem concerning stochastic choice behavior by consumers. We show that, when the consumer spends her entire wealth, the Weak Axiom of Stochastic Revealed Preference due to Bandyopadhyay, Dasgupta, and Pattanaik (1999) is equivalent to a restriction on stochastic demand behavior that we call stochastic substitutability. We also show that the relationship between the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference and Samuelson's inequality in the deterministic theory, and the main result of Bandyopadhyay, Dasgupta, and Pattanaik (1999) are both special cases of our result.Received: 10 September 2001, Revised: 4 April 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D11. Correspondence to: Prasanta K. PattanaikOur greatest debt is to the referee of this paper, who made numerous helpful suggestions. We thank Robin Cubitt, Kunal Sengupta and seminar audiences at Jawaharlal Nehru University, Indian Statistical Institute, University of East Anglia, Universidad Carlos III, University of Essex and University of Montreal for their helpful comments. Prasanta K. Pattanaik acknowledges his intellectual debt to Salvador Barbera, Tapas Majumdar and Amartya Sen.     

Assisting the Long-Term Unemployed: Results from a Randomised Trial

Welfare reform in Australia centres on both economic and social participation. The policy concern is that people who fail to participate in economic and social life may become entrenched in disadvantage. In 2000–2001, a randomised trial was conducted by the Department of Family and Community Services to assess whether an intensive interview with follow-ups would result in increased participation for long-term recipients of income support. Participation in the trial led to a reduction in average hours worked, but increased hours spent in study or training. We find evidence of increased social integration associated with participation in the trial.     

Sovereign Ratings and Oil‐Exporting Countries: The Effect of High Oil Prices on Ratings

We investigate how high and rising oil prices in the 2003–2008 period affected the sovereign ratings of oil‐exporting countries, after controlling for fundamentals. Based on a large dataset of countries from Standard and Poor's and Moody's, we find strong statistical evidence of a large ratings premium – nearly two notches – for those oil‐exporting countries with a large share of net oil revenue to gross domestic product, relative to countries with similar economic fundamentals. We have some limited forecast information from the rating agencies and the effect increases when we include this information, providing further evidence that this ratings premium is not driven by expected improvements in fundamentals. This finding has implications for asset prices in oil‐exporting countries and highlights the risk that in the event of a sharp unanticipated drop in oil prices, sovereign rating downgrades of oil‐exporting countries could be sharper than the deterioration in their economic fundamentals.