Can unpredictable risk exposure be priced?

We study the link between beta predictability and the price of risk. An investor who desires exposure to a certain risk factor needs to predict what next period’s beta will be. We use a simple model to show that an ambiguity averse agent’s demand is lower when betas are hard to predict, leading to a reduction in risk premiums. We test the implications for downside betas and VIX betas. We find that they have economically and statistically small prices of risk once we account for the fact that an investor cannot observe ex-post realized betas when determining asset demand.     

The American Inventors Protection Act: A Natural Experiment on Innovation Disclosure and the Cost of Debt

We examine the impact of innovation disclosure through patenting on firms' cost of debt, focusing on the American Inventors Protection Act (AIPA) as an exogenous shock in innovation disclosure regulation. Post‐AIPA, firms have an incentive to apply for patents only if commercial success is likely. Accordingly, we expect post‐AIPA patents to be a better proxy for successful innovation activity, and thus to have a stronger effect on reducing the cost of debt than pre‐AIPA patents. Indeed, we find that pre‐AIPA patents reduce the cost of debt only for the most innovative firms, while post‐AIPA, this effect holds for all firms.     

Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options

We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied volatility in excess of actual volatility. This volatility wedge should gradually decrease as confidence grows over time as convergence policy is maintained, and the risk of a reversal is progressively resolved. Empirically, we indeed find a positive volatility wedge which declines over time only for currencies involved in the Euro convergence process. The wedge and other convergence risk measures are correlated with both exogenous fundamentals and proxies for policy commitment uncertainty. We also find that the wedge responds to policy shocks in an asymmetric fashion, suggesting that policy risk is resolved at different rates after negative and positive shocks. Finally, we estimate a regime-switching model of convergence uncertainty, using data on interest rates, currency rates, and currency option prices. The results confirm the time-varying and asymmetric nature of convergence risk, and indicate that investors demand a risk premium for convergence risk.     

Globalization vs. localization: global food challenges and local solutions

The objective of this study was to examine the effect of global–local interactions on food production and consumption in Ghana, and identify possible local solutions. Primary data were collected using a combination of quantitative‐qualitative methods, which included focus group discussions and one‐on‐one interviews. Approximately 450 household heads were randomly selected and interviewed between August 2007 and August 2008 in Eastern, Central, Upper East and Northern Regions of Ghana. Findings revealed increasing consumption of foreign rice as opposed to decreasing consumption of local rice and other staples like millet, sorghum and yam because of global–local interactions. However, opportunities exist to re‐localize production‐consumption patterns through the use of ‘glocal foods’ like improved ‘koose and waakye’. Referencing the situation in Ghana, the study recommends improved production and processing practices backed with appropriate technologies that reflect changing consumption dynamics in order to take full advantage of opportunities created as a result of global–local interactions.     

Prioritising land to be preserved for agriculture: A context-specific value tree

In Belgium as in many other countries, agricultural land is under pressure for development of other land uses. This paper presents a method for setting priorities for preservation of land for agriculture. The method is based on a participatory approach through which a value tree is formulated. This results in a list of criteria to define farmland value, which is explicitly linked to the objectives for farmland preservation. The value tree allows the list of criteria to be determined in a structured and consistent way. The participatory process contributes to the development of a shared vision on farmland preservation. The approach also incorporates context specificity, as shown by its application for farmland preservation in Flanders.     

Time‐varying Hedge Ratios: A Principal‐agent Approach

We use the classic agency model to derive a time‐varying optimal hedge ratio for low‐frequency time‐series data: the type of data used by crop farmers when deciding about production and about their hedging strategy. Rooted in the classic agency framework, the proposed hedge ratio reflects the context of both the crop farmer's decision and the crop farmer's contractual relationships in the marketing channel. An empirical illustration of the Dutch ware potato sector and its futures market in Amsterdam over the period 1971–2003 reveals that the time‐varying optimal hedge ratio decreased from 0.34 in 1971 to 0.24 in 2003. The hedging effectiveness, according to this ratio, is 39%. These estimates conform better with farmers’ interest in using futures contracts for hedging purposes than the much higher estimates obtained when price risk minimisation is the only objective considered.     

Direct finance in the Dutch Golden Age†

This article analyses private credit operations in Amsterdam in the seventeenth century to explain the absence of deposit banks. The financial system was highly segmented and a combination of declining business margins and narrow interest rate spreads cut the scope for deposit taking. Moreover, merchants had easy access to credit in the form of short‐term loans which could be easily rolled over, or replaced at will. This technique worked well because a market developed providing key functions to control risk and price loans accordingly.     

Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis

We empirically compare Libor and Swap Market Models for thepricing of interest rate derivatives, using panel data on pricesof US caplets and swaptions. A Libor Market Model can directlybe calibrated to observed prices of caplets, whereas a SwapMarket Model is calibrated to a certain set of swaption prices.For both models we analyze how well they price caplets and swaptionsthat were not used for calibration. We show that the Libor MarketModel in general leads to better prediction of derivative pricesthat were not used for calibration than the Swap Market Model.Also, we find that Market Models with a declining volatilityfunction give much better pricing results than a specificationwith a constant volatility function. Finally, we find that modelsthat arechosen to exactly match certain derivative prices areoverfitted; more parsimonious models lead to better predictionsfor derivative prices that were not used for calibration. JELClassification: G12, G13, E43.     

Spatial dimensions of precision agriculture: a spatial econometric analysis of millet yield on Sahelian coversands

The identification of local soil variability caused by within‐field differences of macronutrients and ecological features is of paramount importance for the effectiveness of precision agriculture. We present several spatial statistical and econometric techniques to capture local differences in soil variation, ecological characteristics, and yield more effectively than the analytical techniques traditionally used in agronomy. The application of these techniques is illustrated in a case study dealing with precision agriculture in the West African Sahel. The production of millet on acid sandy soils constitutes a typical example of low soil fertility areas exhibiting small absolute but large relative differences in crop production conditions over short distances.