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1.
Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.  相似文献   
2.
Provision Point Mechanisms and Field Validity Tests of Contingent Valuation   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
Past field validity tests of contingent valuation have relied on voluntary contribution mechanisms to elicit actual willingness to pay, and may overestimate hypothetical bias because of free riding in the actual contributions. This paper argues that provision point mechanisms are a preferred alternative for field validity tests of contingent valuation because they increase the proportion of demand revealed in cases in which public goods can be provided in a step function. The results of a contingent valuation validity study of participation in a green electricity pricing program that uses a provision point mechanism are reported, and hypothetical open-ended and dichotomous choice responses are compared to actual participation. Calibration of hypothetical responses is also explored.  相似文献   
3.
4.
Public referenda are frequently used to determine the provision of public goods. As public programs have distributional consequences, a compelling question is what impact, if any, do social preferences have on voting behavior. This paper explores this issue using laboratory experiments wherein voting outcomes lead to a known distribution of net benefits across participants. Preferences are elicited using a novel Random Price Voting Mechanism (RPVM), which is more efficient in eliciting preferences than a dichotomous choice referendum but gives consistent results. Results suggest that social preferences, in particular a social efficiency motive, lead to economically meaningful deviations from selfish voting choices and increase the likelihood that welfare-enhancing programs are implemented.  相似文献   
5.
Computational Methods for Measuring the Difference of Empirical Distributions   总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14  
This paper presents a simple computational method for measuring the difference of independent empirical distributions estimated by bootstrapping or other resampling approaches. Using data from a field test of external scope in contingent valuation, this complete combinatorial method is compared with other methods (empirical convolutions, repeated sampling, normality, nonoverlapping confidence intervals) that have been suggested in the literature. Tradeoffs between methods are discussed in terms of programming complexity, time and computer resources required, bias, and the precision of the estimate.  相似文献   
6.
The mandatory nature of check-off programs remains a contentious policy issue. A provision point mechanism with a money-back guarantee offers an attractive, alternative voluntary funding approach, yet faces the problem of how to maintain future administrative capacity should contributions fall short of the funding threshold in the present period. To address this concern, a novel two-threshold, provision point mechanism is tested that sets a high threshold to fund marketing and a low threshold, if necessary, to secure administrative capacity for future advertising. Experimental results demonstrate that providing such "option assurance" sustains high overall contributions and, in some settings, can increase producer surplus.  相似文献   
7.
Marketing decisions are particularly vulnerable to legal rulings made in both the courts and the legislatures. The effective management of those legal implications challenges the modern marketing professional. Understanding marketing’s overall legal environment, including its governing case law, regulatory statutes, and future trends is essential. This review will provide analyses of recent court cases and legislation with particular emphasis on creatively assisting the marketer’s management of the legal factor.  相似文献   
8.
Bid Design Effects in Multiple Bounded Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
A potential concern in multiple bounded discrete choice contingent valuation surveys – where the respondent is asked to express voting certainty, rather than a simple yes or no, on a large number of payment amounts (bids) – is whether responses are influenced by the particular position of bids in the bid-voting panel rather than solely on the respondents willingness to pay (WTP). For instance, respondents may systematically state they would pay the first few bid amounts and not pay all subsequent bids – regardless of the actual dollar values. Such systematic bid design effects would suggest that this method does not provide a valid measure of WTP. Using a split-sample survey, we compare responses to three different bid arrays that have an identical minimum bid, maximum bid, and number of bids. Using nonparametric estimation techniques, we find that estimated WTP distributions and corresponding welfare measures are not statistically different across survey samples.  相似文献   
9.
Can hypothetical questions reveal true values? An examination of thelaboratory experimental literature examining contingent valuation (CV)lends some support for using open-ended hypothetical willingness to payquestions. However, experimental studies examining dichotomous choicehave found that hypothetical answers overstate demand. Consistent withthe experimental literature, published CV studies comparing open-ended todichotomous choice questions have shown that values from the dichotomouschoice method equal or exceed those of the open-ended method in everycase. This paper presents a series of experiments employing more than 800subjects to test this hypothesis for CV and compares the CV results toactual auction values in a single controlled experimental environment.  相似文献   
10.
This paper presents the results from a survey of New York dairy farms that links manure management practices and farmer willingness to participate in voluntary environmental programs, focusing on those operations that are not automatically designated as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations. A wide divergence is found between actual and recommended manure management practices on individual dairy farms (high), the apparent ability of farms to divert financial resources to environmental practices (mixed), and the willingness to participate in voluntary programs at various annual costs per cow (low). These findings have policy implications for the USDA/USEPA National Strategy for Animal Feeding Operations.  相似文献   
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