Forecasting Market Size and Market Growth Rates for New Products

How many times is a forecast of a technological development correct? According to many experienced managers, it almost never is. Then what good is a forecast? A forecast helps make important innovation decisions, according to Brian C. Twiss. He argues that precision in forecasting a technological development is seldom needed for purposes of long-term planning and that any innovation so marginal that small errors in forecasting will make a big difference should not be considered anyway. Twiss suggests that technology forecasting can be of real value once it is accepted that it is essentially concerned with modeling human behavior. This is the unexpected viewpoint that Twiss presents in this article. He explains how to develop and how to use a technology forecast in long-range planning.     

Ben Bernanke and Bagehot's Rules

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has claimed that the Fed's bank bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis were consistent with Walter Bagehot's rules for a lender of last resort. This paper demonstrates Bernanke's claims to be mistaken. First, we outline Bagehot's doctrine for a classical lender of last resort. Next, we discuss Bernanke's theory of bank bailouts and his statements regarding the Fed's role in the 2008 bank bailouts. Finally, we examine the bailouts and demonstrate that, contrary to Bernanke's claims, the Fed's actions were not consistent with Bagehot's rules for a lender of last resort.     

Education,lifetime labor supply,and longevity improvements

This paper presents an analysis of the differential role of mortality for the optimal schooling and retirement age when the accumulation of human capital follows the so-called “Ben–Porath mechanism”. We set up a life-cycle model of consumption and labor supply at the extensive margin that allows for endogenous human capital formation. This paper makes two important contributions. First, we provide the conditions under which a decrease in mortality leads to a longer education period and an earlier retirement age. Second, those conditions are decomposed into a Ben–Porath mechanism and a lifetime-human wealth effect vs. the years-to-consume effect. Finally, using US and Swedish data for cohorts born between 1890 and 2000, we show that our model can match the empirical evidence.     

古希腊人的"本"、"末"观平议

“本”和“末”是中国经济思想史中的一对特定范畴，“本”泛指农业，“末”泛指工商业。所谓“本”、“末”观，就是指古人对农工商业及其相互关系的看法，其中包括“重农轻工商”的观念。古希腊虽然没有与中国相对应的“本”、“末”概念，但却不乏对于农工商业及其关系的思考。本文即选取古希腊的几位有代表性的思想家或立法者作为研究对象，试图对古希腊人的“本”、“末”观进行一些粗略的考察，以期获得一个总体性的认识。本文的基本结论是，与中国先秦的情况相似，古希腊的思想家或立法者无不认为农业是立国之本，工商业居于次要地位，而且，对待“末”业的态度也存在着相对宽容和相对严厉两种倾向。产生这种现象的根本原因在于中希文明所处的相似的历史发展阶段及其社会经济状况。     

本溪市旅游网络的设计与开发

本文论述了本溪市建立区域旅游网络的重要性，根据本溪市旅游状况设计了较为详细的旅游线路和旅游网络，并提出了实现旅游网络开发的途径。