Wealth effect from real estate and outbound travel demand: the Malaysian case

This study uses quarterly data from Malaysia (2000–2011) to examine the relationship between the wealth effect from real estate (WERE) and outbound tourism while controlling for other relevant outbound tourism determinants. By applying time-series cointegration regressions, the results show that WERE has a positive and significant impact on Malaysian outbound travel demand. Then, we exclude the departures for business purposes from the total departures in order to have a better understanding of the impact of WERE on the consumption of a luxury good like international travel for leisure purposes. Similarly, we find that WERE increases Malaysian international travels for leisure purposes. The findings provide some implications for Malaysian policy-makers as well as tourism and travel agents.     

住宅价格与居民收入均衡关系及住房支付能力稳定性

文章通过聚类分析将35个大中城市按2000-2009年住宅价格分为四组,结合面板单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验对住宅价格和居民收入的均衡关系进行了分析,并运用FMOLS模型探讨了住房支付能力稳定性问题。分析表明:35个大中城市的住宅价格和居民收入之间存在长期均衡关系,但支付能力稳定性比较弱;住宅价格和居民收入互为因果关系;住房支付能力稳定性弱不是普遍现象,仅存在于高房价城市;除收入外,城市的食品消费、医疗、教育和交通通信等软硬件设施也是影响住宅价格的重要因素。     

全要素生产率、人民币汇率与中国贸易收支——基于跨期最优选择理论的实证研究

文章首先以跨期最优分析框架为基础建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型,然后基于中国1999-2009年省际面板数据,运用面板FMOLS估计方法,从全国和地区两个层面对中国全要素生产率、人民币实际汇率与中国贸易收支的关系展开实证分析。研究表明,中国贸易部门内资企业和外资企业的全要素生产率提升均对中国实际贸易余额增长产生了正面影响,其中东部地区的促进作用最为强劲;中国非贸易部门全要素生产率与其实际贸易余额负相关,其中东部和中部地区非贸易部门全要素生产率提升会显著减少该地区的实际贸易差额;人民币实际有效汇率提升对中国实际贸易收支具有显著的负面影响,并按照东部、中部和西部地区依次加重。根据上述分析结果,文章提出了调节中国贸易收支的相关政策建议。     

Dynamic panel cointegration approaches to the estimation of money demand functions

This paper investigates properties of the money demand functions of Group of Six (G6) member countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, U.K., and U.S.) using the estimation and inference techniques of panel cointegration. Empirical analyses are conducted by estimating money demand equations of G6 countries individually and as a whole, allowing heterogeneity in individual specific fixed effects across countries through dynamic, nonstationary panel estimation techniques. By using recently developed panel cointegration techniques, the paper contributes to the literature of money demand studies by improving the power performance of the relevant estimation and inference procedures. It reports fully modified OLS (FMOLS) estimation results of the money demand model for different data frequencies, to find varying signs and magnitudes of real income, interest rates and inflation elasticities of money demand for G6 nations.     

城镇化、贸易开放影响经济增长的差异性研究——基于面板数据FMOLS的再思考

文章以城镇化、贸易开放和经济增长为研究对象,运用协整检验和完全修正的最小二乘法（FMOLS）对我国省际面板数据进行实证分析,表明：我国的城镇化、贸易开放与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的面板协整关系;城镇化和贸易开放对经济增长都有促进作用,但作用力度有差异;城镇化是经济增长的Granger原因,而贸易开放不是经济增长的Granger原因。     

CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN TRADE ORIENTATION AND FDI FLOWS: PREPARATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

At the June 1997 Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) the heads of state of the 15 European Union (EU) nations decided to expand to the East. At the Luxembourg IGC in December 1997, they invited the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, and Solvenia from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Cyprus from the Mediterranean region to begin admission talks in early 1998. Efficient involvement in international trade and the division of labor through foreign direct investment (FDI) are two of the most important prerequisites to economic transformation, modernization, and sustained economic growth. Thus, trade reorientation by the CEE nations from the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) region to the OECD region in general and the EU in particu lar, as well as the volume and nature of inbound FDI are among the most reliable indicators of these countries' abilities to meet the EU admission standards. Trade reorientation by the CEE nations and FDI inflows between 1990 1995 have established a sound basis for effective economic transformation and modernization. It has also increased the ability of selected industries to compete in the EU Single Market. By 1997 the CEE nations were in a good position to generate sustained economic growth and to gradually meet the EU admission requirements.     

国际技术溢出与我国生产率的变化：基于FDI和进口渠道的研究

本文利用1990—2007年的省际面板数据,在测算我国省际全要素生产率及其变化的基础上,分析了基于FDI和进口渠道的国际技术溢出对我国全要素生产率的影响。研究表明,通过外商直接投资和进口的技术溢出均显著地促进了我国生产率的增长,但随着FDI和进口额的增加,其对生产率增长的促进作用是递减的。人力资本对提高生产率,加快生产率增长速度均具有显著的促进作用。本文最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

出口商品结构与我国全要素生产率增长——基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析

在核算了1994～2007年我国各省全要素生产率的基础上,利用面板单位根检验、协整检验、完全修正最小二乘估计法,实证分析了出口商品结构与全要素生产率的关系。研究发现,我国的出口量增长不能促进全要素生产率增长,初级产品的出口弱化了全要素生产率增长,而工业制成品的出口推动了全要素生产率的增长;各地区的省市有所差异,说明出口商品结构对全要素生产率的影响具有区域性特点。     

Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence

The purpose of this study is to advance the tourism demand theory by excluding simultaneous effects of exchange rates and prices in empirical models, formulating an alternative pricing modus operandi consistent with recent research in the area, and demonstrating the efficacy of the use of an industrial production index (IPI) as a proxy for income. A panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method is employed to estimate the inbound tourism demand for Turkey. Study findings suggest that the inclusion of exchange rates and prices, as mutually exclusive components, can be misleading; the IPI is not a good proxy for income; and country-specific coefficients need to be analyzed to accurately explain determinants of tourism demand for countries in the panel.     

产业结构升级的就业效应分析

研究产业结构升级与失业率的关系作为判断产业结构升级就业效应的重要指标,具有现实意义。本文通过构建全国产业结构升级与失业率的非线性阈值模型进行研究,研究结果表明：我国产业结构升级呈非线性动态变化,并且产业结构升级过程中对就业产生了较大影响,在产业结构趋于成熟时,就业效应反而不显著。